The Claim
“Broke an election promise to return to surplus by 2016-2017.”
Original Sources Provided
✅ FACTUAL VERIFICATION
The claim is factually accurate. The Abbott government did abandon its commitment to return the budget to surplus by 2016-17.
In December 2013, just three months after being elected, Prime Minister Tony Abbott confirmed that a 2016-17 surplus was no longer realistic, stating: "We said we would return the budget back to surplus at least as quickly as Labor had proposed. What we are discovering the more we dive deeply into the budget is the extent of Labor's fiscal disaster" [1].
During the 2013 election campaign and in October 2013, Abbott had committed to achieving a surplus by 2016-17, matching Labor's forecast. In late October 2013, Abbott stated: "We will get back to surplus at least as quickly as the former government claimed that it would get back to surplus" [1].
The government's first Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) in December 2013 forecast a deficit of approximately $50 billion for 2013-14 and projected debt to exceed $500 billion beyond the four-year budget forecasts [1].
However, the Coalition never did achieve a surplus during its 2013-2022 term. According to ABC Fact Check, net debt doubled under the Coalition Government from $174.6 billion in September 2013 to $354.5 billion by October 2018 [2]. The 2019-20 Final Budget Outcome recorded an $85.3 billion deficit, primarily due to COVID-19 pandemic response spending [3].
Missing Context
The claim omits several critical contextual factors:
Economic circumstances beyond government control: The Abbott government pointed to falling commodity prices as a major factor in the deteriorating budget position. Iron ore prices fell from $US120 a tonne at the beginning of 2014 to around $US60 a tonne by December 2014, with Treasury forecasting this would wipe $6.2 billion from tax receipts that year and almost $32 billion over the following four years [4].
Structural deficit inherited: Independent economists noted that Australia faced a structural deficit problem that predated the Coalition government. BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese argued that weak economic growth and structural decline in tax revenues relative to GDP were largely responsible for the lingering red ink, not just commodity prices [4].
Senate obstruction: The Coalition's 2014 budget savings measures were largely blocked in the Senate by the Opposition. Former Treasury official Stephen Anthony noted that MYEFO included almost $34 billion in budget savings that had not yet passed the Senate [4].
Global economic trends: AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver noted that "global economic trends, commodity price swings, and other factors completely out of government's control are what drives the debt" [2].
Source Credibility Assessment
The Australian Financial Review (AFR) is a mainstream, reputable Australian financial newspaper owned by Fairfax Media (now Nine Entertainment). It has a centre-right editorial stance but is generally regarded as credible for business and economic reporting. The December 16, 2013 article by chief political correspondent Phillip Coorey reported Abbott's announcement accurately. The AFR is not a partisan advocacy organization, though like all media, it has its own editorial perspective. The archived article is a primary source documenting the government's announcement at the time [1].
Labor Comparison
Did Labor do something similar?
Yes - Labor also failed to deliver promised surpluses.
The Rudd/Gillard government made multiple surplus promises that were subsequently abandoned:
2012-13 surplus promise: Treasurer Wayne Swan promised a surplus for 2012-13 "come hell or high water" and even prematurely announced it had been "delivered" after the May 2012 budget [5]. By December 2012, the surplus was abandoned. The predicted surplus of $2.5 billion became a deficit of $18.8 billion [5].
Corporate revenue collapse: According to the 2012-13 Final Budget Outcome, the surplus was killed by falling corporate tax revenue and the underperforming Minerals Resource Rent Tax (MRRT). Company tax revenue fell from an estimated $75 billion to $68.2 billion, while the MRRT and Petroleum Resource Rent Tax yielded only $1.9 billion against predictions of $7.4 billion [5].
Fiscal record: The Labor government (2007-2013) ran deficits every year following the Global Financial Crisis, despite initial commitments to return to surplus. The Coalition inherited a budget in deficit with PEFO (Pre-Election Fiscal Outlook) forecasting a $30 billion deficit for 2013-14 [1].
Historical context: Australia has not achieved a federal budget surplus since the Howard government (1996-2007). Both Labor (2007-2013) and the Coalition (2013-2022) failed to deliver surpluses during their respective terms, despite making election promises to do so.
Balanced Perspective
While the claim that the Coalition broke its surplus promise is factually accurate, important context explains why this occurred and demonstrates that this failure was not unique to the Coalition:
Legitimate factors affecting the Coalition's ability to deliver a surplus:
- Collapsing commodity prices significantly reduced government revenue [4]
- Senate obstruction blocked key savings measures [2]
- Weak economic growth and structural deficits in tax revenue relative to GDP [4]
- The Coalition maintained its longer-term goal of achieving surpluses equivalent to 1% of GDP within a decade, though this was also never achieved [1]
Comparative analysis:
The Coalition's failure to deliver a surplus mirrors Labor's earlier failure to deliver its promised 2012-13 surplus. Both governments faced revenue write-downs due to falling commodity prices and corporate tax receipts. Both blamed external economic factors beyond their control. Both made optimistic surplus promises during election campaigns that proved unattainable.
Expert assessment:
RMIT ABC Fact Check found that while net debt did double under the Coalition, "this is not the only way to track net debt." Measured as a share of GDP, net debt grew more slowly. Additionally, experts noted that "paying down debt wasn't entirely within the control of government, with broader economic circumstances also playing a significant part" [2].
Key context: This is NOT unique to the Coalition. Both major parties have made and broken surplus promises over the past 15+ years. Neither government has achieved a budget surplus since the Howard government era (2007), despite repeated promises from both sides.
TRUE
7.0
out of 10
The claim is factually accurate. The Coalition government did break its election promise to return the budget to surplus by 2016-17. Tony Abbott explicitly abandoned this commitment in December 2013, just three months after being elected, and the Coalition never achieved a surplus during its two terms in office (2013-2022).
However, the claim lacks important context about external economic factors (falling commodity prices, weak global growth) and the fact that this failure was not unique to the Coalition - the preceding Labor government similarly failed to deliver its promised 2012-13 surplus, and Australia has not recorded a federal budget surplus since the Howard government ended in 2007. Both major parties have made and broken surplus promises over the past 15+ years.
Final Score
7.0
OUT OF 10
TRUE
The claim is factually accurate. The Coalition government did break its election promise to return the budget to surplus by 2016-17. Tony Abbott explicitly abandoned this commitment in December 2013, just three months after being elected, and the Coalition never achieved a surplus during its two terms in office (2013-2022).
However, the claim lacks important context about external economic factors (falling commodity prices, weak global growth) and the fact that this failure was not unique to the Coalition - the preceding Labor government similarly failed to deliver its promised 2012-13 surplus, and Australia has not recorded a federal budget surplus since the Howard government ended in 2007. Both major parties have made and broken surplus promises over the past 15+ years.
📚 SOURCES & CITATIONS (5)
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1
web.archive.org
The Abbott government has abandoned its target of returning the budget to surplus in three years, claiming the “profligacy” of its Labor predecessor was to blame, but that won’t stop a splurge in infrastructure spending.
Financial Review -
2
abc.net.au
Shadow assistant treasurer Andrew Leigh says that the Coalition has doubled net debt since it came to office. Fact Check finds that to be correct, but with some important caveats.
Abc Net -
3
ministers.finance.gov.au
Ministers Finance Gov
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4
abc.net.au
Falling commodity prices and an obstinate Senate are just two of many causes for a further $10 billion blowout in the budget deficit to $40 billion.
Abc Net -
5
smartcompany.com.au
In the end, it was the corporate sector that killed off Labor’s quest for a surplus in 2012-13, today’s final budget outcome shows. The financial year
SmartCompany
Rating Scale Methodology
1-3: FALSE
Factually incorrect or malicious fabrication.
4-6: PARTIAL
Some truth but context is missing or skewed.
7-9: MOSTLY TRUE
Minor technicalities or phrasing issues.
10: ACCURATE
Perfectly verified and contextually fair.
Methodology: Ratings are determined through cross-referencing official government records, independent fact-checking organizations, and primary source documents.