C0890
声明内容
“Denied any link between droughts and climate change.”
原始来源： Matthew Davis
原始来源
✅ 事实核查
The The claim claim references references Tony Tony Abbott Abbott ' ' s s statements statements during during a a drought drought tour tour of of New New South South Wales Wales and and Queensland Queensland in in February February 2014 2014 . . According According to to The The Guardian Guardian ' ' s s reporting reporting , , when when asked asked about about the the effects effects of of climate climate change change on on the the drought drought , , Abbott Abbott stated stated : : " " If If you you look look at at the the records records of of Australian Australian agriculture agriculture going going back back 150 150 years years , , there there have have always always been been good good times times and and bad bad times times ... ... There There have have always always been been tough tough times times and and lush lush times times and and farmers farmers ought ought to to be be able able to to deal deal with with the the sorts sorts of of things things that that are are expected expected every every few few years years " " [ [ 1 1 ] ] . . When When asked asked if if some some farming farming land land may may become become unviable unviable due due to to changing changing conditions conditions , , Abbott Abbott replied replied that that drought drought was was " " not not a a new new thing thing in in Australia Australia " " and and that that " " from from the the very very beginning beginning of of settlement settlement there there have have always always been been arguments arguments about about what what is is the the appropriate appropriate limit limit to to farming farming " " [ [ 1 1 ] ] . .
The claim references Tony Abbott's statements during a drought tour of New South Wales and Queensland in February 2014.
The The scientific scientific context context in in 2014 2014 was was complex complex . . The The Millennium Millennium Drought Drought ( ( 2001 2001 - - 2009 2009 ) ) , , considered considered one one of of the the worst worst droughts droughts in in Australia Australia ' ' s s recorded recorded history history , , had had recently recently ended ended [ [ 4 4 ] ] . . Research Research into into connections connections between between specific specific drought drought events events and and climate climate change change was was ongoing ongoing , , with with CSIRO CSIRO and and other other scientific scientific institutions institutions studying studying attribution attribution [ [ 5 5 ] ] . . While While climate climate change change science science indicated indicated that that rainfall rainfall patterns patterns were were changing changing , , attributing attributing specific specific drought drought events events to to climate climate change change remained remained scientifically scientifically complex complex and and contested contested among among researchers researchers at at the the time time [ [ 4 4 ] ] . . According to The Guardian's reporting, when asked about the effects of climate change on the drought, Abbott stated: "If you look at the records of Australian agriculture going back 150 years, there have always been good times and bad times...
The The claim claim that that Abbott Abbott " " denied denied any any link link " " is is a a stronger stronger characterization characterization than than what what the the record record shows shows . . Abbott Abbott ' ' s s statements statements contextualized contextualized drought drought within within Australia Australia ' ' s s historical historical climate climate patterns patterns while while discussing discussing short short - - term term disaster disaster relief relief eligibility eligibility , , rather rather than than explicitly explicitly denying denying a a scientific scientific connection connection between between climate climate change change and and drought drought patterns patterns [ [ 1 1 ] ] [ [ 2 2 ] ] . . There have always been tough times and lush times and farmers ought to be able to deal with the sorts of things that are expected every few years" [1].
缺失背景
The The claim claim omits omits several several important important contextual contextual elements elements . . Abbott Abbott made made these these comments comments during during a a tour tour announcing announcing a a $ $ 320 320 million million drought drought assistance assistance package package for for farmers farmers [ [ 1 1 ] ] . . His His remarks remarks were were specifically specifically about about the the threshold threshold for for declaring declaring a a " " natural natural disaster disaster " " and and providing providing federal federal assistance assistance , , not not a a comprehensive comprehensive statement statement on on climate climate science science . . Abbott Abbott emphasized emphasized that that " " where where the the ordinary ordinary preparations preparations that that prudent prudent farmers farmers could could be be expected expected to to make make for for the the ordinary ordinary weather weather patterns patterns that that you you ' ' d d expect expect [ [ are are made made ] ] , , when when those those weather weather patterns patterns become become particularly particularly extreme extreme ... ... that that ' ' s s when when it it becomes becomes a a natural natural disaster disaster and and [ [ that that ' ' s s ] ] when when the the government government ought ought to to be be there there to to lend lend a a hand hand " " [ [ 1 1 ] ] . .
The claim omits several important contextual elements.
The The timing timing is is also also significant significant . . Abbott Abbott was was touring touring drought drought - - affected affected regions regions with with Agriculture Agriculture Minister Minister Barnaby Barnaby Joyce Joyce in in February February 2014 2014 , , preparing preparing emergency emergency relief relief legislation legislation [ [ 1 1 ] ] . . The The broader broader context context included included his his government government ' ' s s decision decision to to abolish abolish the the independent independent Climate Climate Commission Commission and and appoint appoint climate climate skeptic skeptic Dick Dick Warburton Warburton to to review review the the Renewable Renewable Energy Energy Target Target [ [ 2 2 ] ] , , indicating indicating a a broader broader pattern pattern of of climate climate policy policy skepticism skepticism , , though though this this was was not not reflected reflected in in the the specific specific drought drought relief relief context context . . Abbott made these comments during a tour announcing a $320 million drought assistance package for farmers [1].
来源可信度评估
The The original original source source , , The The Guardian Guardian , , is is rated rated as as having having a a " " Left Left " " media media bias bias by by AllSides AllSides and and Media Media Bias Bias / / Fact Fact Check Check [ [ 6 6 ] ] [ [ 7 7 ] ] . . It It is is generally generally considered considered a a reputable reputable mainstream mainstream news news organization organization but but with with a a center center - - left left political political orientation orientation . . The The Guardian Guardian ' ' s s Australia Australia edition edition launched launched in in 2013 2013 and and has has been been known known for for critical critical coverage coverage of of conservative conservative governments governments [ [ 6 6 ] ] . . The The article article in in question question was was published published as as an an opinion opinion / / analysis analysis piece piece rather rather than than straight straight news news reporting reporting , , which which is is relevant relevant to to how how the the statements statements were were framed framed [ [ 2 2 ] ] . . The The Guardian Guardian has has openly openly described described itself itself as as " " centre centre - - left left " " and and its its columnists columnists have have argued argued that that " " transparent transparent bias bias is is preferable preferable to to faux faux - - neutrality neutrality " " [ [ 7 7 ] ] . .
The original source, The Guardian, is rated as having a "Left" media bias by AllSides and Media Bias/Fact Check [6][7].
⚖️
工党对比
* * * * Did Did Labor Labor do do something something similar similar ? ? * * * *
**Did Labor do something similar?**
Search conducted: "Labor government drought assistance policy Australia history"
Finding: Labor governments historically maintained similar drought assistance frameworks.
Search Search conducted conducted : : " " Labor Labor government government drought drought assistance assistance policy policy Australia Australia history history " " The National Farmers' Federation drought package that Abbott was considering was actually supported by the Labor party [1].
Finding Finding : : Labor Labor governments governments historically historically maintained maintained similar similar drought drought assistance assistance frameworks frameworks . . The The National National Farmers Farmers ' ' Federation Federation drought drought package package that that Abbott Abbott was was considering considering was was actually actually supported supported by by the the Labor Labor party party [ [ 1 1 ] ] . . Shadow Shadow Agriculture Agriculture Minister Minister Joel Joel Fitzgibbon Fitzgibbon criticized criticized Abbott Abbott for for delay delay but but did did not not fundamentally fundamentally disagree disagree on on the the approach approach to to drought drought assistance assistance , , instead instead stating stating Labor Labor was was " " disappointed disappointed the the first first parliamentary parliamentary sitting sitting week week passed passed without without the the government government introducing introducing a a farm farm household household support support bill bill " " [ [ 1 1 ] ] . . Shadow Agriculture Minister Joel Fitzgibbon criticized Abbott for delay but did not fundamentally disagree on the approach to drought assistance, instead stating Labor was "disappointed the first parliamentary sitting week passed without the government introducing a farm household support bill" [1].
Drought Drought policy policy has has historically historically been been treated treated as as a a bipartisan bipartisan issue issue of of humanitarian humanitarian assistance assistance to to farming farming communities communities . . The The 2014 2014 drought drought affected affected Queensland Queensland and and New New South South Wales Wales following following rainfall rainfall deficiencies deficiencies recorded recorded by by the the Bureau Bureau of of Meteorology Meteorology between between April April 2012 2012 and and January January 2014 2014 [ [ 3 3 ] ] . . Both Both major major parties parties have have historically historically provided provided emergency emergency assistance assistance during during severe severe droughts droughts , , though though the the debate debate over over whether whether to to incorporate incorporate climate climate change change projections projections into into long long - - term term agricultural agricultural policy policy has has been been more more contentious contentious . . Drought policy has historically been treated as a bipartisan issue of humanitarian assistance to farming communities.
The The Howard Howard government government ( ( 1996 1996 - - 2007 2007 ) ) also also dealt dealt with with severe severe drought drought during during the the Millennium Millennium Drought Drought , , with with cabinet cabinet papers papers from from 2004 2004 showing showing drought drought was was a a significant significant policy policy concern concern affecting affecting water water policy policy in in the the Murray Murray - - Darling Darling Basin Basin [ [ 8 8 ] ] . . Climate Climate change change was was emerging emerging as as a a policy policy issue issue during during this this period period , , but but drought drought assistance assistance remained remained primarily primarily framed framed as as disaster disaster relief relief rather rather than than climate climate adaptation adaptation . . The 2014 drought affected Queensland and New South Wales following rainfall deficiencies recorded by the Bureau of Meteorology between April 2012 and January 2014 [3].
🌐
平衡视角
Abbott Abbott ' ' s s statements statements can can be be interpreted interpreted in in two two ways ways . . Critics Critics argued argued that that by by characterizing characterizing drought drought as as a a normal normal historical historical pattern pattern , , Abbott Abbott was was ignoring ignoring climate climate science science suggesting suggesting that that climate climate change change was was affecting affecting rainfall rainfall patterns patterns and and increasing increasing the the frequency frequency and and severity severity of of extreme extreme weather weather events events [ [ 2 2 ] ] . . The The Sydney Sydney Morning Morning Herald Herald editorialized editorialized that that Abbott Abbott ' ' s s " " attempts attempts to to deny deny the the facts facts of of global global warming warming are are an an insult insult to to voters voters and and an an international international embarrassment embarrassment " " [ [ 2 2 ] ] . . Climate Climate advocates advocates noted noted that that the the recently recently - - abolished abolished Climate Climate Commission Commission had had warned warned that that " " changing changing rainfall rainfall patterns patterns , , the the increasing increasing risk risk of of extreme extreme heat heat and and bushfire bushfire weather weather present present challenges challenges for for Australian Australian agriculture agriculture " " [ [ 2 2 ] ] . .
Abbott's statements can be interpreted in two ways.
However However , , Abbott Abbott ' ' s s defenders defenders would would note note that that he he was was making making a a specific specific policy policy argument argument about about disaster disaster assistance assistance thresholds thresholds rather rather than than a a comprehensive comprehensive scientific scientific statement statement . . His His argument argument was was that that farmers farmers should should plan plan for for periodic periodic droughts droughts as as a a normal normal part part of of Australian Australian agriculture agriculture , , and and only only seek seek government government assistance assistance when when conditions conditions exceeded exceeded historical historical norms norms - - effectively effectively a a " " 1 1 in in 20 20 , , 50 50 , , or or 100 100 - - year year events events " " standard standard [ [ 2 2 ] ] . . This This is is consistent consistent with with traditional traditional drought drought policy policy approaches approaches that that distinguish distinguish between between normal normal business business risks risks ( ( which which farmers farmers should should self self - - insure insure against against ) ) and and exceptional exceptional circumstances circumstances warranting warranting government government intervention intervention . . Critics argued that by characterizing drought as a normal historical pattern, Abbott was ignoring climate science suggesting that climate change was affecting rainfall patterns and increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events [2].
* * * * Key Key context context : : * * * * Drought Drought assistance assistance policy policy has has been been largely largely consistent consistent across across Australian Australian governments governments of of both both parties parties , , treated treated primarily primarily as as emergency emergency humanitarian humanitarian aid aid rather rather than than climate climate adaptation adaptation policy policy . . The The question question of of whether whether and and how how to to incorporate incorporate climate climate change change projections projections into into agricultural agricultural policy policy remains remains a a point point of of partisan partisan difference difference , , but but the the provision provision of of emergency emergency relief relief during during severe severe droughts droughts has has been been bipartisan bipartisan . . The Sydney Morning Herald editorialized that Abbott's "attempts to deny the facts of global warming are an insult to voters and an international embarrassment" [2].
部分属实
5.0
/ 10
The The claim claim that that Abbott Abbott " " denied denied any any link link between between droughts droughts and and climate climate change change " " is is an an oversimplification oversimplification of of his his statements statements . . What What Abbott Abbott actually actually did did was was contextualize contextualize the the 2014 2014 drought drought within within Australia Australia ' ' s s 150 150 - - year year agricultural agricultural history history while while discussing discussing disaster disaster assistance assistance eligibility eligibility thresholds thresholds [ [ 1 1 ] ] . . He He did did not not explicitly explicitly deny deny that that climate climate change change could could affect affect drought drought patterns patterns ; ; rather rather , , he he characterized characterized drought drought as as a a recurring recurring historical historical phenomenon phenomenon that that farmers farmers should should plan plan for for . . The The characterization characterization of of this this as as " " denying denying any any link link " " reflects reflects partisan partisan framing framing by by the the original original source source [ [ 2 2 ] ] . . However However , , Abbott Abbott ' ' s s statements statements did did reflect reflect a a broader broader pattern pattern of of his his government government ' ' s s skepticism skepticism toward toward climate climate change change policy policy , , including including abolishing abolishing the the Climate Climate Commission Commission and and appointing appointing known known climate climate skeptics skeptics to to review review renewable renewable energy energy policies policies [ [ 2 2 ] ] . . The The claim claim is is therefore therefore not not false false , , but but lacks lacks important important context context about about what what was was actually actually said said and and the the specific specific policy policy context context in in which which it it was was said said . .
The claim that Abbott "denied any link between droughts and climate change" is an oversimplification of his statements.
最终评分
5.0
/ 10
部分属实
The The claim claim that that Abbott Abbott " " denied denied any any link link between between droughts droughts and and climate climate change change " " is is an an oversimplification oversimplification of of his his statements statements . . What What Abbott Abbott actually actually did did was was contextualize contextualize the the 2014 2014 drought drought within within Australia Australia ' ' s s 150 150 - - year year agricultural agricultural history history while while discussing discussing disaster disaster assistance assistance eligibility eligibility thresholds thresholds [ [ 1 1 ] ] . . He He did did not not explicitly explicitly deny deny that that climate climate change change could could affect affect drought drought patterns patterns ; ; rather rather , , he he characterized characterized drought drought as as a a recurring recurring historical historical phenomenon phenomenon that that farmers farmers should should plan plan for for . . The The characterization characterization of of this this as as " " denying denying any any link link " " reflects reflects partisan partisan framing framing by by the the original original source source [ [ 2 2 ] ] . . However However , , Abbott Abbott ' ' s s statements statements did did reflect reflect a a broader broader pattern pattern of of his his government government ' ' s s skepticism skepticism toward toward climate climate change change policy policy , , including including abolishing abolishing the the Climate Climate Commission Commission and and appointing appointing known known climate climate skeptics skeptics to to review review renewable renewable energy energy policies policies [ [ 2 2 ] ] . . The The claim claim is is therefore therefore not not false false , , but but lacks lacks important important context context about about what what was was actually actually said said and and the the specific specific policy policy context context in in which which it it was was said said . .
The claim that Abbott "denied any link between droughts and climate change" is an oversimplification of his statements.
📚 来源与引用 (8)
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1
Tony Abbott dismisses link between drought and climate change
‘There have always been tough times and lush times,’ says prime minister on second day of tour of drought-affected areas
the Guardian -
2
Abbott's ignorance of climate facts insults and embarrasses
Tony Abbott is up to his old trick of putting conflicting arguments all at once, this time in relation to drought assistance and climate change (''Drought is unrelated to climate change: Abbott'', February 18).
The Sydney Morning Herald -
3
Drought, Queensland and New South Wales
One year after Australia’s 16-year drought ‘The Big Dry’ was confirmed to have broken, parts of Queensland and New South Wales were again declared to be in drought. The Bureau of Meteorology recorded rainfall deficiencies between April 2012 and January 2014, with most of Queensland and inland of the Great Dividing Range in New South Wales experiencing serious to severe deficiencies, having less than 70 per cent of their long-term average rainfall.
Drought, Queensland and New South Wales | Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge Hub -
4
The Millennium Drought in southeast Australia (2001-2009)
Agupubs Onlinelibrary Wiley
-
5
Drought - CSIRO
Our research and technologies are helping improve Australia's drought resilience and response. We work with government, industry and communities to adapt to, and recover from, drought conditions. Through these measures we can improve outcomes for agriculture, regional communities and our landscapes.
Csiro -
6
The Guardian Media Bias | AllSides
Allsides
-
7
The Guardian - Bias and Credibility - Media Bias/Fact Check
LEFT-CENTER BIAS These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias. They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words
Media Bias/Fact Check -
8
Cabinet papers 2004: Howard government worries about drought, house prices and the Iraq war
And, for the first time, this cabinet paper release contains records from the national security committee, a powerful subgroup of cabinet.
UNSW Sites
评分方法
1-3: 不实
事实错误或恶意捏造。
4-6: 部分属实
有一定真实性，但缺乏背景或有所偏颇。
7-9: 基本属实
仅有微小的技术性或措辞问题。
10: 准确
完全经过验证且客观公正。
方法论: 评分通过交叉参照政府官方记录、独立事实核查机构和原始文件确定。