C0084 - 气候、经济、环境、税收

C0084

声明内容

“在私营部门认定该项目缺乏商业合理性后，政府仍投入6亿澳元建设新的燃气发电厂。”

气候经济环境

原始来源： Matthew Davis

原始来源

mdavis.xyz

Documentation of Coalition government policies and claims.

Matthew Davis

✅ 事实核查

该gāi gāi 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 的de de 核心hé xīn hé xīn 事实shì shí shì shí 部分bù fèn bù fèn 准确zhǔn què zhǔn què ，，，但dàn dàn 需要xū yào xū yào 重要zhòng yào zhòng yào 的de de 语境yǔ jìng yǔ jìng 澄清chéng qīng chéng qīng [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

The core facts of this claim are partially accurate but require significant context clarification [1]. **The $600 million figure is accurate:** The Australian federal government did provide up to $600 million in funding to Snowy Hydro Limited to construct a 660 megawatt (MW) open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) power plant at Kurri Kurri in the NSW Hunter Valley [1].

** * ** * 66 6 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 数字shù zì shù zì 准确zhǔn què zhǔn què ：：： ** * ** * 澳大利亚联邦政府ào dà lì yà lián bāng zhèng fǔ ào dà lì yà lián bāng zhèng fǔ 确实què shí què shí 向xiàng xiàng SnowySnowy Snowy HydroHydro Hydro LimitedLimited Limited 提供tí gōng tí gōng 高达gāo dá gāo dá 66 6 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 的de de 资金zī jīn zī jīn ，，，用于yòng yú yòng yú 在zài zài 新南威尔士州xīn nán wēi ěr shì zhōu xīn nán wēi ěr shì zhōu 猎人liè rén liè rén 谷gǔ gǔ KurriKurri Kurri KurriKurri Kurri 建设jiàn shè jiàn shè 一座yī zuò yī zuò 660660 660 兆瓦zhào wǎ zhào wǎ （（（ MWMW MW ）））开式kāi shì kāi shì 循环xún huán xún huán 燃气轮机rán qì lún jī rán qì lún jī （（（ OCGTOCGT OCGT ）））发电厂fā diàn chǎng fā diàn chǎng [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

Energy Minister Angus Taylor announced the project in May 2021 [1]. **The project did occur after private sector inaction:** In September 2020, the federal government issued an ultimatum: the private sector had until April 2021 to reach a "final investment decision" on at least 1,000 MW of new generation capacity to replace the closing Liddell coal-fired power station [2].

能源部长néng yuán bù zhǎng néng yuán bù zhǎng AngusAngus Angus TaylorTaylor Taylor 于yú yú 20212021 2021 年nián nián 55 5 月yuè yuè 宣布xuān bù xuān bù 该gāi gāi 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

When the April 2021 deadline passed with no private sector commitments, the government announced the Kurri Kurri project in May 2021 [3].

** * ** * 该gāi gāi 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 确实què shí què shí 发生fā shēng fā shēng 在zài zài 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 不bù bù 作为zuò wéi zuò wéi 之后zhī hòu zhī hòu ：：： ** * ** * 20202020 2020 年nián nián 99 9 月yuè yuè ，，，联邦政府lián bāng zhèng fǔ lián bāng zhèng fǔ 发出fā chū fā chū 最后通牒zuì hòu tōng dié zuì hòu tōng dié ：：：私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 必须bì xū bì xū 在zài zài 20212021 2021 年nián nián 44 4 月yuè yuè 之前zhī qián zhī qián 就jiù jiù 至少zhì shǎo zhì shǎo 10001000 1000 兆瓦zhào wǎ zhào wǎ 的de de 新xīn xīn 发电fā diàn fā diàn 容量róng liàng róng liàng 做出zuò chū zuò chū "" " 最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 投资tóu zī tóu zī 决定jué dìng jué dìng "" " ，，，以yǐ yǐ 替代tì dài tì dài 即将jí jiāng jí jiāng 关闭guān bì guān bì 的de de LiddellLiddell Liddell 燃煤rán méi rán méi 发电站fā diàn zhàn fā diàn zhàn [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] 。。。

This directly supports the claim that the government proceeded after private sector inaction. **However, the characterization "decided it made no commercial sense" requires important context:** The Snowy Hydro business case (released October 2021) projected an asset Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 12.3% in the base case, with downside sensitivities returning IRRs between 8.4-11.8% [4].

当dāng dāng 20212021 2021 年nián nián 44 4 月yuè yuè 的de de 截止jié zhǐ jié zhǐ 日期rì qī rì qī 过去guò qù guò qù 而ér ér 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 未wèi wèi 做出zuò chū zuò chū 任何rèn hé rèn hé 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò 时shí shí ，，，政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 于yú yú 20212021 2021 年nián nián 55 5 月yuè yuè 宣布xuān bù xuān bù 了le le KurriKurri Kurri KurriKurri Kurri 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù [[ [ 33 3 ]] ] 。。。

These returns are commercially viable for many infrastructure projects.

这zhè zhè 直接zhí jiē zhí jiē 支持zhī chí zhī chí 了le le 该gāi gāi 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ ，，，即jí jí 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 在zài zài 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 不bù bù 作为zuò wéi zuò wéi 之后zhī hòu zhī hòu 采取cǎi qǔ cǎi qǔ 了le le 行动xíng dòng xíng dòng 。。。

The issue was not that the project made "no commercial sense" but rather that private energy companies did not see building this plant as their priority or responsibility.

** * ** * 然而rán ér rán ér ，，， "" " 认定rèn dìng rèn dìng 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 商业shāng yè shāng yè 意义yì yì yì yì "" " 的de de 表述biǎo shù biǎo shù 需要xū yào xū yào 重要zhòng yào zhòng yào 语境yǔ jìng yǔ jìng ：：： ** * ** * SnowySnowy Snowy HydroHydro Hydro 商业shāng yè shāng yè 案例àn lì àn lì （（（ 20212021 2021 年nián nián 1010 10 月yuè yuè 发布fā bù fā bù ）））预测yù cè yù cè 基准jī zhǔn jī zhǔn 情况qíng kuàng qíng kuàng 下xià xià 资产zī chǎn zī chǎn 内部nèi bù nèi bù 收益率shōu yì lǜ shōu yì lǜ （（（ IRRIRR IRR ）））为wèi wèi 12.3%12.3% 12.3% ，，，下行xià xíng xià xíng 敏感性mǐn gǎn xìng mǐn gǎn xìng 情况qíng kuàng qíng kuàng 下xià xià IRRIRR IRR 在zài zài 8.48.4 8.4 -- - 11.8%11.8% 11.8% 之间zhī jiān zhī jiān [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] 。。。

对于duì yú duì yú 许多xǔ duō xǔ duō 基础设施jī chǔ shè shī jī chǔ shè shī 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 而言ér yán ér yán ，，，这些zhè xiē zhè xiē 回报率huí bào lǜ huí bào lǜ 在zài zài 商业shāng yè shāng yè 上shàng shàng 是shì shì 可行kě xíng kě xíng 的de de 。。。

问题wèn tí wèn tí 不bù bù 在于zài yú zài yú 该gāi gāi 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù "" " 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 商业shāng yè shāng yè 意义yì yì yì yì "" " ，，，而ér ér 在于zài yú zài yú 私营sī yíng sī yíng 能源néng yuán néng yuán 公司gōng sī gōng sī 不bù bù 将jiāng jiāng 建设jiàn shè jiàn shè 该gāi gāi 电厂diàn chǎng diàn chǎng 视为shì wèi shì wèi 其qí qí 优先yōu xiān yōu xiān 事项shì xiàng shì xiàng 或huò huò 责任zé rèn zé rèn 。。。

缺失背景

该gāi gāi 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 省略shěng lüè shěng lüè 了le le 几个jǐ gè jǐ gè 解释jiě shì jiě shì 该gāi gāi 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 为何wèi hé wèi hé 发生fā shēng fā shēng 的de de 关键因素guān jiàn yīn sù guān jiàn yīn sù ：：：

The claim omits several critical factors that explain why this project occurred: **1.

** * ** * 11 1 .. . 合理hé lǐ hé lǐ 的de de 发电fā diàn fā diàn 缺口quē kǒu quē kǒu 担忧dān yōu dān yōu ：：： ** * ** * LiddellLiddell Liddell 是shì shì 一座yī zuò yī zuò 20002000 2000 兆瓦zhào wǎ zhào wǎ 的de de 燃煤rán méi rán méi 发电站fā diàn zhàn fā diàn zhàn ，，，于yú yú 20232023 2023 年nián nián 44 4 月yuè yuè 关闭guān bì guān bì ，，，从cóng cóng 国家guó jiā guó jiā 电力diàn lì diàn lì 市场shì chǎng shì chǎng 中zhōng zhōng 撤出chè chū chè chū 大量dà liàng dà liàng 容量róng liàng róng liàng [[ [ 55 5 ]] ] 。。。

Legitimate generation gap concern:** Liddell was a 2,000 MW coal-fired power station closing in April 2023, creating a genuine capacity withdrawal from the National Electricity Market [5].

专家zhuān jiā zhuān jiā 就jiù jiù 是否shì fǒu shì fǒu 需要xū yào xū yào 替代tì dài tì dài 容量róng liàng róng liàng 存在cún zài cún zài 争议zhēng yì zhēng yì ，，，但dàn dàn 存在cún zài cún zài 合理hé lǐ hé lǐ 的de de 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè 依据yī jù yī jù [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] 。。。

Experts debated whether replacement capacity was necessary, but there was a legitimate policy rationale [2]. **2.

** * ** * 22 2 .. . 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 与yǔ yǔ 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 前提qián tí qián tí 的de de 分歧fēn qí fēn qí ：：： ** * ** * 虽然suī rán suī rán 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 坚称jiān chēng jiān chēng 需要xū yào xū yào 10001000 1000 兆瓦zhào wǎ zhào wǎ 以上yǐ shàng yǐ shàng 的de de 新xīn xīn 可kě kě 调度diào dù diào dù 容量róng liàng róng liàng ，，，但dàn dàn 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 能源néng yuán néng yuán 市场shì chǎng shì chǎng 运营商yùn yíng shāng yùn yíng shāng （（（ AEMOAEMO AEMO ）））和hé hé 能源安全néng yuán ān quán néng yuán ān quán 委员会wěi yuán huì wěi yuán huì 都dōu dōu 得出结论dé chū jié lùn dé chū jié lùn ，，，不bù bù 需要xū yào xū yào 额外é wài é wài 的de de 新xīn xīn 容量róng liàng róng liàng 来lái lái 可靠kě kào kě kào 替代tì dài tì dài LiddellLiddell Liddell [[ [ 66 6 ]] ] 。。。

Private sector disagreement with government premise:** While the government insisted 1,000+ MW of new dispatchable capacity was needed, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and Energy Security Board both concluded that no additional new capacity was required to reliably replace Liddell [6].

私营sī yíng sī yíng 能源néng yuán néng yuán 公司gōng sī gōng sī 可能kě néng kě néng 同意tóng yì tóng yì AEMOAEMO AEMO 的de de 评估píng gū píng gū 而ér ér 非政府fēi zhèng fǔ fēi zhèng fǔ 的de de 评估píng gū píng gū [[ [ 66 6 ]] ] 。。。

Private energy companies likely agreed with AEMO rather than the government's assessment [6]. **3.

** * ** * 33 3 .. . 时机shí jī shí jī 和hé hé 市场shì chǎng shì chǎng 条件tiáo jiàn tiáo jiàn ：：： ** * ** * 私营sī yíng sī yíng 能源néng yuán néng yuán 公司gōng sī gōng sī 可能kě néng kě néng 因yīn yīn 以下yǐ xià yǐ xià 原因yuán yīn yuán yīn 不愿bù yuàn bù yuàn 在zài zài 20212021 2021 年nián nián 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò 开发kāi fā kāi fā 燃气rán qì rán qì 电厂diàn chǎng diàn chǎng ：：：

Timing and market conditions:** Private energy companies may have been unwilling to commit to gas plant development in 2021 due to: - Uncertainty about Australia's long-term energy policy direction [7] - Declining economics for gas as renewable energy costs fell [7] - Regulatory uncertainty around coal and gas investment - Risk that the plant would become stranded as the grid decarbonizes [7] **4.

-- - 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 长期cháng qī cháng qī 能源néng yuán néng yuán 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè 方向fāng xiàng fāng xiàng 的de de 不确定性bù què dìng xìng bù què dìng xìng [[ [ 77 7 ]] ]

Snowy Hydro's unique position:** Snowy Hydro is government-owned and can accept lower returns and longer payback periods than private companies.

-- - 随着suí zhe suí zhe 可kě kě 再生能源zài shēng néng yuán zài shēng néng yuán 成本chéng běn chéng běn 下降xià jiàng xià jiàng ，，，燃气rán qì rán qì 的de de 经济性jīng jì xìng jīng jì xìng 下降xià jiàng xià jiàng [[ [ 77 7 ]] ]

The business case shows it was willing to finance this project with government support [4].

-- - 煤炭méi tàn méi tàn 和hé hé 天然气tiān rán qì tiān rán qì 投资tóu zī tóu zī 的de de 监管jiān guǎn jiān guǎn 不确定性bù què dìng xìng bù què dìng xìng

Private utilities typically require higher returns. **5.

-- - 随着suí zhe suí zhe 电网diàn wǎng diàn wǎng 脱碳tuō tàn tuō tàn ，，，该gāi gāi 电厂diàn chǎng diàn chǎng 可能kě néng kě néng 成为chéng wéi chéng wéi 搁浅gē qiǎn gē qiǎn 资产zī chǎn zī chǎn 的de de 风险fēng xiǎn fēng xiǎn [[ [ 77 7 ]] ]

Alternative capacity being developed:** EnergyAustralia was simultaneously developing the Tallawarra B gas plant (320 MW), which was completed in 2024 [8].

** * ** * 44 4 .. . SnowySnowy Snowy HydroHydro Hydro 的de de 独特dú tè dú tè 地位dì wèi dì wèi ：：： ** * ** * SnowySnowy Snowy HydroHydro Hydro 是shì shì 国有企业guó yǒu qǐ yè guó yǒu qǐ yè ，，，可以kě yǐ kě yǐ 接受jiē shòu jiē shòu 比bǐ bǐ 私营企业sī yíng qǐ yè sī yíng qǐ yè 更gèng gèng 低dī dī 的de de 回报huí bào huí bào 和hé hé 更长gèng zhǎng gèng zhǎng 的de de 回报huí bào huí bào 期qī qī 。。。

This suggests the private sector WAS building some replacement capacity, just not at the scale the Coalition government demanded.

商业shāng yè shāng yè 案例àn lì àn lì 显示xiǎn shì xiǎn shì ，，，它tā tā 愿意yuàn yì yuàn yì 在zài zài 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 支持zhī chí zhī chí 下为xià wèi xià wèi 该gāi gāi 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 提供tí gōng tí gōng 融资róng zī róng zī [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] 。。。

私营sī yíng sī yíng 公用事业gōng yòng shì yè gōng yòng shì yè 公司gōng sī gōng sī 通常tōng cháng tōng cháng 需要xū yào xū yào 更gèng gèng 高gāo gāo 的de de 回报huí bào huí bào 。。。

** * ** * 55 5 .. . 正在zhèng zài zhèng zài 开发kāi fā kāi fā 的de de 替代tì dài tì dài 容量róng liàng róng liàng ：：： ** * ** * EnergyAustraliaEnergyAustralia EnergyAustralia 同时tóng shí tóng shí 正在zhèng zài zhèng zài 开发kāi fā kāi fā TallawarraTallawarra Tallawarra BB B 燃气rán qì rán qì 电厂diàn chǎng diàn chǎng （（（ 320320 320 兆瓦zhào wǎ zhào wǎ ））），，，该gāi gāi 电厂diàn chǎng diàn chǎng 于yú yú 20242024 2024 年nián nián 完工wán gōng wán gōng [[ [ 88 8 ]] ] 。。。

这zhè zhè 表明biǎo míng biǎo míng 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 确实què shí què shí 在zài zài 建设jiàn shè jiàn shè 一些yī xiē yī xiē 替代tì dài tì dài 容量róng liàng róng liàng ，，，只是zhǐ shì zhǐ shì 未wèi wèi 达到dá dào dá dào CoalitionCoalition Coalition 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 要求yāo qiú yāo qiú 的de de 规模guī mó guī mó 。。。

来源可信度评估

** * ** * TheThe The NewNew New DailyDaily Daily ：：： ** * ** * TheThe The NewNew New DailyDaily Daily 是shì shì 一家yī jiā yī jiā 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 数字shù zì shù zì 新闻媒体xīn wén méi tǐ xīn wén méi tǐ ，，，具有jù yǒu jù yǒu 中zhōng zhōng 左翼zuǒ yì zuǒ yì 编辑biān jí biān jí 倾向qīng xiàng qīng xiàng ，，，被bèi bèi 认为rèn wéi rèn wéi 与yǔ yǔ LaborLabor Labor 立场lì chǎng lì chǎng 一致yí zhì yí zhì [[ [ 99 9 ]] ] 。。。

**The New Daily:** The New Daily is an Australian digital news outlet with a centre-left editorial bias and known Labor alignment [9].

虽然suī rán suī rán 该gāi gāi 文章wén zhāng wén zhāng 准确zhǔn què zhǔn què 报道bào dào bào dào 了le le 公告gōng gào gōng gào 和hé hé 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 声明shēng míng shēng míng ，，，但dàn dàn 该gāi gāi 媒体méi tǐ méi tǐ 并bìng bìng 不bù bù 以yǐ yǐ 对duì duì 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè 进行jìn xíng jìn xíng 深入shēn rù shēn rù 批判性pī pàn xìng pī pàn xìng 分析fēn xī fēn xī 著称zhù chēng zhù chēng 。。。

While the article accurately reports the announcement and government statements, it is not known for deep critical analysis of government policy.

它tā tā 主要zhǔ yào zhǔ yào 作为zuò wéi zuò wéi 新闻xīn wén xīn wén 聚合jù hé jù hé 机构jī gòu jī gòu ，，，引用yǐn yòng yǐn yòng AAPAAP AAP （（（澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 联合lián hé lián hé 新闻社xīn wén shè xīn wén shè ）））和hé hé 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 声明shēng míng shēng míng 。。。

It functions primarily as a news aggregator citing AAP (Australian Associated Press) and government statements.

文章wén zhāng wén zhāng 对duì duì 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 的de de 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 进行jìn xíng jìn xíng 了le le 报道bào dào bào dào ，，，但dàn dàn 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 进行jìn xíng jìn xíng 实质性shí zhì xìng shí zhì xìng 质疑zhì yí zhì yí 。。。

The article presents the government's claims without substantial questioning. **The New Daily's framing:** The article's headline focuses on "green light" and "600 million" without questioning whether the project was necessary—a framing typical of the outlet's pro-Labor, critical-of-Coalition stance [1].

** * ** * TheThe The NewNew New DailyDaily Daily 的de de 表述biǎo shù biǎo shù ：：： ** * ** * 该gāi gāi 文章wén zhāng wén zhāng 标题biāo tí biāo tí 聚焦jù jiāo jù jiāo 于yú yú "" " 绿灯lǜ dēng lǜ dēng "" " 和hé hé "" " 66 6 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán "" " ，，，而ér ér 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 质疑zhì yí zhì yí 该gāi gāi 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 是否shì fǒu shì fǒu 必要bì yào bì yào —— — —— — 这种zhè zhǒng zhè zhǒng 表述biǎo shù biǎo shù 典型diǎn xíng diǎn xíng 地dì dì 反映fǎn yìng fǎn yìng 了le le 该gāi gāi 媒体méi tǐ méi tǐ 亲qīn qīn LaborLabor Labor 、、、批判pī pàn pī pàn CoalitionCoalition Coalition 的de de 立场lì chǎng lì chǎng [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

⚖️

工党对比

** * ** * LaborLabor Labor 是否shì fǒu shì fǒu 做过zuò guò zuò guò 类似lèi sì lèi sì 的de de 事情shì qíng shì qíng ？？？

**Did Labor do something similar?** Search conducted: "Labor government power infrastructure investment coal closure support renewable energy" **Finding:** Labor governments have a mixed record on similar infrastructure challenges: **Rudd-Gillard Labor (2007-2010):** The Rudd government increased the Renewable Energy Target and invested in renewable energy policy, but did NOT invest in large-scale thermal generation replacement during coal plant closures [10].

** * ** *

When Hazelwood coal plant closed in 2017 (after Labor left office), Labor did not propose government-built replacement generation. **However, Labor's approach was also about market failure:** Rudd-Gillard governments implemented the Renewable Energy Target as a market mechanism, believing the private sector would respond.

搜索sōu suǒ sōu suǒ 关键词guān jiàn cí guān jiàn cí ：：： "" " LaborLabor Labor 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 电力diàn lì diàn lì 基础设施jī chǔ shè shī jī chǔ shè shī 投资tóu zī tóu zī 煤炭méi tàn méi tàn 关闭guān bì guān bì 支持zhī chí zhī chí 可kě kě 再生能源zài shēng néng yuán zài shēng néng yuán "" "

When they did not respond adequately to climate policy (carbon price, RET), neither government resorted to direct government investment in thermal generation [10]. **Key difference:** The Rudd-Gillard approach was to set policy frameworks (carbon price, RET) and let the market respond.

** * ** * 发现fā xiàn fā xiàn ：：： ** * ** * LaborLabor Labor 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 在zài zài 处理chǔ lǐ chǔ lǐ 类似lèi sì lèi sì 基础设施jī chǔ shè shī jī chǔ shè shī 挑战tiǎo zhàn tiǎo zhàn 方面fāng miàn fāng miàn 有着yǒu zhe yǒu zhe 复杂fù zá fù zá 的de de 记录jì lù jì lù ：：：

The Coalition approach (2020-2021) was to intervene directly when the market didn't respond to their demands.

** * ** * 陆克文lù kè wén lù kè wén -- - 吉拉德jí lā dé jí lā dé LaborLabor Labor 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ （（（ 20072007 2007 -- - 20102010 2010 ）））：：： ** * ** * 陆克文lù kè wén lù kè wén 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 提高tí gāo tí gāo 了le le 可kě kě 再生能源zài shēng néng yuán zài shēng néng yuán 目标mù biāo mù biāo 并bìng bìng 投资tóu zī tóu zī 了le le 可kě kě 再生能源zài shēng néng yuán zài shēng néng yuán 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè ，，，但dàn dàn 在zài zài 燃煤rán méi rán méi 电厂diàn chǎng diàn chǎng 关闭guān bì guān bì 期间qī jiān qī jiān 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 投资tóu zī tóu zī 大规模dà guī mó dà guī mó 热电rè diàn rè diàn 替代tì dài tì dài [[ [ 1010 10 ]] ] 。。。

Both governments faced private sector reluctance to make generation investments; they just used different tools. **Similar precedent in Albanese Labor:** When Labor returned to power in 2022, they maintained the Kurri Kurri project (by then partly constructed) rather than canceling it—suggesting they also found utility in government intervention for grid security [11].

当dāng dāng HazelwoodHazelwood Hazelwood 燃煤rán méi rán méi 电厂diàn chǎng diàn chǎng 于yú yú 20172017 2017 年nián nián 关闭guān bì guān bì （（（ LaborLabor Labor 离任lí rèn lí rèn 后hòu hòu ）））时shí shí ，，， LaborLabor Labor 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 提议tí yì tí yì 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 建设jiàn shè jiàn shè 替代tì dài tì dài 发电fā diàn fā diàn 设施shè shī shè shī 。。。

** * ** * 然而rán ér rán ér ，，， LaborLabor Labor 的de de 做法zuò fǎ zuò fǎ 也yě yě 是shì shì 关于guān yú guān yú 市场shì chǎng shì chǎng 失灵shī líng shī líng ：：： ** * ** * 陆克文lù kè wén lù kè wén -- - 吉拉德jí lā dé jí lā dé 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 实施shí shī shí shī 了le le 可kě kě 再生能源zài shēng néng yuán zài shēng néng yuán 目标mù biāo mù biāo 作为zuò wéi zuò wéi 市场机制shì chǎng jī zhì shì chǎng jī zhì ，，，相信xiāng xìn xiāng xìn 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 会huì huì 做出zuò chū zuò chū 回应huí yìng huí yìng 。。。

当dāng dāng 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 对duì duì 气候qì hòu qì hòu 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè （（（碳tàn tàn 价格jià gé jià gé 、、、 RETRET RET ）））没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 充分chōng fèn chōng fèn 回应huí yìng huí yìng 时shí shí ，，，两届liǎng jiè liǎng jiè 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 都dōu dōu 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 诉诸sù zhū sù zhū 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 直接zhí jiē zhí jiē 投资tóu zī tóu zī 热电rè diàn rè diàn [[ [ 1010 10 ]] ] 。。。

** * ** * 关键guān jiàn guān jiàn 区别qū bié qū bié ：：： ** * ** * 陆克文lù kè wén lù kè wén -- - 吉拉德jí lā dé jí lā dé 的de de 做法zuò fǎ zuò fǎ 是shì shì 制定zhì dìng zhì dìng 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè 框架kuāng jià kuāng jià （（（碳tàn tàn 价格jià gé jià gé 、、、 RETRET RET ）））并bìng bìng 让ràng ràng 市场shì chǎng shì chǎng 做出zuò chū zuò chū 回应huí yìng huí yìng 。。。

CoalitionCoalition Coalition 的de de 做法zuò fǎ zuò fǎ （（（ 20202020 2020 -- - 20212021 2021 年nián nián ）））是shì shì 在zài zài 市场shì chǎng shì chǎng 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 回应huí yìng huí yìng 其qí qí 要求yāo qiú yāo qiú 时shí shí 直接zhí jiē zhí jiē 干预gān yù gān yù 。。。

两届liǎng jiè liǎng jiè 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 都dōu dōu 面临miàn lín miàn lín 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 不愿bù yuàn bù yuàn 进行jìn xíng jìn xíng 发电fā diàn fā diàn 投资tóu zī tóu zī 的de de 问题wèn tí wèn tí ；；；他们tā men tā men 只是zhǐ shì zhǐ shì 使用shǐ yòng shǐ yòng 了le le 不同bù tóng bù tóng 的de de 工具gōng jù gōng jù 。。。

** * ** * AlbaneseAlbanese Albanese LaborLabor Labor 的de de 类似lèi sì lèi sì 先例xiān lì xiān lì ：：： ** * ** * 当dāng dāng LaborLabor Labor 于yú yú 20222022 2022 年nián nián 重新chóng xīn chóng xīn 执政zhí zhèng zhí zhèng 时shí shí ，，，他们tā men tā men 保留bǎo liú bǎo liú 了le le KurriKurri Kurri KurriKurri Kurri 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù （（（当时dāng shí dāng shí 已yǐ yǐ 部分bù fèn bù fèn 建设jiàn shè jiàn shè ））），，，而ér ér 不是bú shì bú shì 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo 它tā tā —— — —— — 这zhè zhè 表明biǎo míng biǎo míng 他们tā men tā men 也yě yě 认为rèn wéi rèn wéi 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 干预gān yù gān yù 对duì duì 电网diàn wǎng diàn wǎng 安全ān quán ān quán 有yǒu yǒu 实用价值shí yòng jià zhí shí yòng jià zhí [[ [ 1111 11 ]] ] 。。。

🌐

平衡视角

** * ** * 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 支持zhī chí zhī chí 该项gāi xiàng gāi xiàng 目的mù dì mù dì 理由lǐ yóu lǐ yóu ：：： ** * ** *

**The government's case for the project:** The Coalition argued that Liddell's closure created a generation and security gap that required intervention [1].

CoalitionCoalition Coalition 认为rèn wéi rèn wéi ，，， LiddellLiddell Liddell 的de de 关闭guān bì guān bì 造成zào chéng zào chéng 了le le 需要xū yào xū yào 干预gān yù gān yù 的de de 发电fā diàn fā diàn 和hé hé 安全ān quán ān quán 缺口quē kǒu quē kǒu [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

Energy Minister Angus Taylor stated: "We will not stand by and watch prices go up and the lights go off" [1].

能源部长néng yuán bù zhǎng néng yuán bù zhǎng AngusAngus Angus TaylorTaylor Taylor 表示biǎo shì biǎo shì ：：： "" " 我们wǒ men wǒ men 不会bú huì bú huì 袖手旁观xiù shǒu páng guān xiù shǒu páng guān ，，，看着kàn zhe kàn zhe 电价diàn jià diàn jià 上涨shàng zhǎng shàng zhǎng 、、、灯光dēng guāng dēng guāng 熄灭xī miè xī miè "" " [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

The government's position was that: 1.

政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 的de de 立场lì chǎng lì chǎng 是shì shì ：：：

A rapid coal closure (2,000 MW in one year) required firming capacity [2] 2.

11 1 .. . 快速kuài sù kuài sù 关闭guān bì guān bì 煤炭méi tàn méi tàn （（（一年yī nián yī nián 内nèi nèi 20002000 2000 兆瓦zhào wǎ zhào wǎ ）））需要xū yào xū yào 稳固wěn gù wěn gù 容量róng liàng róng liàng [[ [ 22 2 ]] ]

Private sector was not providing this capacity despite ultimatums [3] 3.

22 2 .. . 尽管jǐn guǎn jǐn guǎn 发出fā chū fā chū 最后通牒zuì hòu tōng dié zuì hòu tōng dié ，，，私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 仍réng réng 未wèi wèi 提供tí gōng tí gōng 这一zhè yī zhè yī 容量róng liàng róng liàng [[ [ 33 3 ]] ]

Government investment was necessary to maintain reliability and prices [1] **The critics' case:** Energy economists and the IEEFA estimated the project would cost over A$1 billion (not $600 million) when fully delivered, and that AEMO had determined no additional capacity was actually needed [6].

33 3 .. . 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 投资tóu zī tóu zī 对于duì yú duì yú 维持wéi chí wéi chí 可靠性kě kào xìng kě kào xìng 和hé hé 价格jià gé jià gé 稳定wěn dìng wěn dìng 是shì shì 必要bì yào bì yào 的de de [[ [ 11 1 ]] ]

Critics argued: 1.

** * ** * 批评者pī píng zhě pī píng zhě 的de de 理由lǐ yóu lǐ yóu ：：： ** * ** *

The project was economically inefficient compared to alternatives like batteries and demand management [6] 2.

能源néng yuán néng yuán 经济学家jīng jì xué jiā jīng jì xué jiā 和hé hé IEEFAIEEFA IEEFA 估计gū jì gū jì ，，，该gāi gāi 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 完全wán quán wán quán 交付jiāo fù jiāo fù 后hòu hòu 的de de 成本chéng běn chéng běn 将jiāng jiāng 超过chāo guò chāo guò 1010 10 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán （（（而ér ér 非fēi fēi 66 6 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán ））），，，而且ér qiě ér qiě AEMOAEMO AEMO 已yǐ yǐ 确定què dìng què dìng 实际上shí jì shàng shí jì shàng 不bù bù 需要xū yào xū yào 额外é wài é wài 容量róng liàng róng liàng [[ [ 66 6 ]] ] 。。。

Government was over-estimating the need for dispatchable capacity [6] 3.

批评者pī píng zhě pī píng zhě 认为rèn wéi rèn wéi ：：：

Gas plant investment locked in fossil fuels when renewables were cheaper [7] 4.

11 1 .. . 与yǔ yǔ 电池diàn chí diàn chí 和hé hé 需求xū qiú xū qiú 管理guǎn lǐ guǎn lǐ 等děng děng 替代tì dài tì dài 方案fāng àn fāng àn 相比xiāng bǐ xiāng bǐ ，，，该gāi gāi 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 在经济上zài jīng jì shàng zài jīng jì shàng 效率xiào lǜ xiào lǜ 低下dī xià dī xià [[ [ 66 6 ]] ]

The private sector's reluctance reflected rational commercial assessment, not market failure [6] **Expert assessment:** The Australian Energy Market Operator's official position carried weight here—AEMO concluded no new capacity was needed, which private energy companies likely used to justify their reluctance [6].

22 2 .. . 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 高估gāo gū gāo gū 了le le 对duì duì 可kě kě 调度diào dù diào dù 容量róng liàng róng liàng 的de de 需求xū qiú xū qiú [[ [ 66 6 ]] ]

However, AEMO was analyzing technical feasibility; the Coalition was making policy choices about the type of generation preferred (fast-start gas vs. batteries). **Comparative context:** This was NOT unique to the Coalition.

33 3 .. . 燃气rán qì rán qì 电厂diàn chǎng diàn chǎng 投资tóu zī tóu zī 锁定suǒ dìng suǒ dìng 了le le 化石huà shí huà shí 燃料rán liào rán liào ，，，而ér ér 此时cǐ shí cǐ shí 可kě kě 再生能源zài shēng néng yuán zài shēng néng yuán 更gèng gèng 便宜pián yi pián yi [[ [ 77 7 ]] ]

The underlying issue—coal plant closures creating transition challenges that markets struggle to manage—is common across democracies.

44 4 .. . 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 的de de 不bù bù 情愿qíng yuàn qíng yuàn 反映fǎn yìng fǎn yìng 了le le 理性lǐ xìng lǐ xìng 的de de 商业shāng yè shāng yè 评估píng gū píng gū ，，，而ér ér 非市场fēi shì chǎng fēi shì chǎng 失灵shī líng shī líng [[ [ 66 6 ]] ]

Labor governments globally have also struggled with how to manage coal transitions.

** * ** * 专家zhuān jiā zhuān jiā 评估píng gū píng gū ：：： ** * ** *

The difference is philosophical: should government intervene directly (Coalition) or through policy frameworks (Rudd-Gillard Labor)?

澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 能源néng yuán néng yuán 市场shì chǎng shì chǎng 运营商yùn yíng shāng yùn yíng shāng 的de de 官方guān fāng guān fāng 立场lì chǎng lì chǎng 在zài zài 这里zhè lǐ zhè lǐ 具有jù yǒu jù yǒu 重要zhòng yào zhòng yào 分量fèn liàng fèn liàng —— — —— — AEMOAEMO AEMO 得出结论dé chū jié lùn dé chū jié lùn 不bù bù 需要xū yào xū yào 新xīn xīn 容量róng liàng róng liàng ，，，私营sī yíng sī yíng 能源néng yuán néng yuán 公司gōng sī gōng sī 可能kě néng kě néng 利用lì yòng lì yòng 这zhè zhè 一点yì diǎn yì diǎn 来lái lái 证明zhèng míng zhèng míng 其qí qí 不bù bù 情愿qíng yuàn qíng yuàn 的de de 合理性hé lǐ xìng hé lǐ xìng [[ [ 66 6 ]] ] 。。。

然而rán ér rán ér ，，， AEMOAEMO AEMO 分析fēn xī fēn xī 的de de 是shì shì 技术jì shù jì shù 可行性kě xíng xìng kě xíng xìng ；；； CoalitionCoalition Coalition 是shì shì 在zài zài 关于guān yú guān yú 首选shǒu xuǎn shǒu xuǎn 发电fā diàn fā diàn 类型lèi xíng lèi xíng （（（快速kuài sù kuài sù 启动qǐ dòng qǐ dòng 燃气rán qì rán qì 与yǔ yǔ 电池diàn chí diàn chí ）））的de de 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè 选择xuǎn zé xuǎn zé 。。。

** * ** * 比较bǐ jiào bǐ jiào 语境yǔ jìng yǔ jìng ：：： ** * ** *

这zhè zhè 对duì duì CoalitionCoalition Coalition 来说lái shuō lái shuō 并非bìng fēi bìng fēi 独有dú yǒu dú yǒu 。。。

根本gēn běn gēn běn 问题wèn tí wèn tí —— — —— — 燃煤rán méi rán méi 电厂diàn chǎng diàn chǎng 关闭guān bì guān bì 造成zào chéng zào chéng 市场shì chǎng shì chǎng 难以nán yǐ nán yǐ 应对yìng duì yìng duì 的de de 转型zhuǎn xíng zhuǎn xíng 挑战tiǎo zhàn tiǎo zhàn —— — —— — 在zài zài 民主mín zhǔ mín zhǔ 国家guó jiā guó jiā 中zhōng zhōng 普遍存在pǔ biàn cún zài pǔ biàn cún zài 。。。

全球quán qiú quán qiú LaborLabor Labor 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 也yě yě 在zài zài 如何rú hé rú hé 管理guǎn lǐ guǎn lǐ 煤炭méi tàn méi tàn 转型zhuǎn xíng zhuǎn xíng 方面fāng miàn fāng miàn 遇到困难yù dào kùn nán yù dào kùn nán 。。。

区别qū bié qū bié 在于zài yú zài yú 理念lǐ niàn lǐ niàn ：：：政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 应该yīng gāi yīng gāi 直接zhí jiē zhí jiē 干预gān yù gān yù （（（ CoalitionCoalition Coalition ）））还是hái shì hái shì 通过tōng guò tōng guò 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè 框架kuāng jià kuāng jià （（（陆克文lù kè wén lù kè wén -- - 吉拉德jí lā dé jí lā dé LaborLabor Labor ）））？？？

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关于guān yú guān yú "" " 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 在zài zài 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 认定rèn dìng rèn dìng 该gāi gāi 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 商业shāng yè shāng yè 意义yì yì yì yì 后hòu hòu 花费huā fèi huā fèi 66 6 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 建设jiàn shè jiàn shè 新xīn xīn 的de de 燃气rán qì rán qì 电厂diàn chǎng diàn chǎng "" " 的de de 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ ，，，在zài zài 结构jié gòu jié gòu 事实上shì shí shàng shì shí shàng 正确zhèng què zhèng què ，，，但dàn dàn 在zài zài 含义hán yì hán yì 上shàng shàng 具有jù yǒu jù yǒu 误导性wù dǎo xìng wù dǎo xìng 。。。

The claim that the government "spent $600 million building a new gas power plant after the private sector decided it made no commercial sense" is factually correct in structure but misleading in implications. **What's true:** - $600 million was provided to build the plant [1] - The private sector did not commit capacity by the April 2021 deadline [3] **What's misleading:** - "Made no commercial sense" is not supported—the business case projected 12.3% IRR [4] - The issue was not economic unviability but private sector prioritization and policy disagreement [6] - AEMO and energy experts believed the capacity was unnecessary, not that it was economically impossible [6] - Private sector WAS building some replacement capacity (Tallawarra B), just not at government-mandated scale [8] **The deeper truth:** The government made a policy choice to intervene with direct infrastructure investment after the private sector failed to meet government capacity targets.

** * ** * 属实shǔ shí shǔ shí 部分bù fèn bù fèn ：：： ** * ** *

This reflects different philosophies about market intervention—not necessarily that the project was commercially irrational.

-- - 确实què shí què shí 提供tí gōng tí gōng 了le le 66 6 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 用于yòng yú yòng yú 建设jiàn shè jiàn shè 该gāi gāi 电厂diàn chǎng diàn chǎng [[ [ 11 1 ]] ]

-- - 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 确实què shí què shí 未wèi wèi 在zài zài 20212021 2021 年nián nián 44 4 月yuè yuè 截止jié zhǐ jié zhǐ 日期rì qī rì qī 前qián qián 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò 容量róng liàng róng liàng [[ [ 33 3 ]] ]

** * ** * 具有jù yǒu jù yǒu 误导性wù dǎo xìng wù dǎo xìng 的de de 部分bù fèn bù fèn ：：： ** * ** *

-- - "" " 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 商业shāng yè shāng yè 意义yì yì yì yì "" " 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 依据yī jù yī jù —— — —— — 商业shāng yè shāng yè 案例àn lì àn lì 预测yù cè yù cè IRRIRR IRR 为wèi wèi 12.3%12.3% 12.3% [[ [ 44 4 ]] ]

-- - 问题wèn tí wèn tí 不bù bù 在于zài yú zài yú 经济jīng jì jīng jì 上shàng shàng 的de de 不bù bù 可行性kě xíng xìng kě xíng xìng ，，，而ér ér 在于zài yú zài yú 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 的de de 优先级yōu xiān jí yōu xiān jí 排序pái xù pái xù 和hé hé 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè 分歧fēn qí fēn qí [[ [ 66 6 ]] ]

-- - AEMOAEMO AEMO 和hé hé 能源néng yuán néng yuán 专家zhuān jiā zhuān jiā 认为rèn wéi rèn wéi 容量róng liàng róng liàng 不必要bù bì yào bù bì yào ，，，而ér ér 非经济fēi jīng jì fēi jīng jì 上shàng shàng 不bù bù 可能kě néng kě néng [[ [ 66 6 ]] ]

-- - 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 确实què shí què shí 在zài zài 建设jiàn shè jiàn shè 一些yī xiē yī xiē 替代tì dài tì dài 容量róng liàng róng liàng （（（ TallawarraTallawarra Tallawarra BB B ））），，，只是zhǐ shì zhǐ shì 未wèi wèi 达到dá dào dá dào 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 要求yāo qiú yāo qiú 的de de 规模guī mó guī mó [[ [ 88 8 ]] ]

** * ** * 更gèng gèng 深层次shēn céng cì shēn céng cì 的de de 真相zhēn xiàng zhēn xiàng ：：： ** * ** * 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 在zài zài 私营部门sī yíng bù mén sī yíng bù mén 未能wèi néng wèi néng 达到dá dào dá dào 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 容量róng liàng róng liàng 目标mù biāo mù biāo 后hòu hòu ，，，做出zuò chū zuò chū 了le le 通过tōng guò tōng guò 直接zhí jiē zhí jiē 基础设施jī chǔ shè shī jī chǔ shè shī 投资tóu zī tóu zī 进行jìn xíng jìn xíng 干预gān yù gān yù 的de de 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè 选择xuǎn zé xuǎn zé 。。。

这zhè zhè 反映fǎn yìng fǎn yìng 了le le 关于guān yú guān yú 市场shì chǎng shì chǎng 干预gān yù gān yù 的de de 不同bù tóng bù tóng 理念lǐ niàn lǐ niàn —— — —— — 不bù bù 一定yí dìng yí dìng 是shì shì 该gāi gāi 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 在zài zài 商业shāng yè shāng yè 上shàng shàng 不合理bù hé lǐ bù hé lǐ 。。。

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