The Claim
“Lied about the budget being 'in the black'.”
Original Sources Provided
✅ FACTUAL VERIFICATION
The Coalition government, led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, did announce in April 2019 that Australia was "back in black," projecting a return to surplus [1]. Specifically, Frydenberg declared: "The budget is back in black and Australia is back on track," forecasting a $7.1 billion surplus for the 2019-20 financial year [2]. This was the government's first projected surplus in 12 years, announced as a centerpiece of the April 2019 election-pitch budget [3].
However, the actual outcome diverged dramatically from these projections. The 2019-20 financial year ended with an underlying cash deficit of $85.3 billion (4.3% of GDP)—not the projected surplus [4]. This represented a $90.3 billion deterioration from the forecast. The government had specifically projected surpluses totaling $35.9 billion over the following three years; instead, actual deficits totaled $251.4 billion—a $287.3 billion variance [5].
The subsequent years saw even larger deficits: 2020-21 recorded $134.2 billion deficit (Australia's largest budget deficit since World War II) [6]. By September 2020, Treasurer Frydenberg himself acknowledged that targeting surpluses would be "unrealistic"—a striking reversal from the 2019 budget's promise of expanding surpluses toward 1% of GDP within a decade [7].
Missing Context
The claim requires careful interpretation because the government's statement was technically about a forecast surplus, not an already-achieved surplus. The 2019-20 budget did project a return to surplus; it did not claim one had already occurred. This distinction matters for accuracy [1].
However, several contextual issues complicate the picture:
COVID-19 Impact: The promised 2019-20 surplus became impossible when COVID-19 struck. The government's emergency fiscal support—JobKeeper, Coronavirus Supplement, and CashFlow boost—totaled $57.7 billion in additional cash payments, while revenue fell $33.1 billion below estimates [4]. This was an unforeseeable crisis that justified the deficit spending, making the original projection mathematically obsolete through no fault of forecasting methodology.
Pre-COVID Forecast Accuracy: Even before COVID-19's impact, the 2019 projections were questioned. The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) of December 2019 (pre-COVID) had already revised the 2019-20 projection to a smaller surplus of approximately $8 billion—suggesting the initial April forecast was optimistic [4]. This indicates the issue wasn't solely COVID-related.
Election Timing Context: The budget was delivered just before the May 2019 federal election and featured substantial personal income tax cuts and infrastructure spending. This timing raised legitimate questions about whether projections were optimized to support the Coalition's electoral pitch rather than based on conservative economic assumptions [3].
Historical Comparison: The Labor government had previously delivered actual budget surpluses in earlier years (most recently in 2007-08), providing a contrast with the Coalition's unfulfilled 2019 promise [8].
Source Credibility Assessment
The original source provided (thenewdaily.com.au) is a mainstream Australian news outlet with a center-left editorial perspective, though it maintains professional journalism standards. The analysis should rely primarily on official government sources rather than the original source's framing.
Primary sources consulted include: Treasury official budget outcome documents, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) government finance statistics, parliamentary records, and mainstream news outlets (ABC News, The Conversation, Guardian Australia). These are authoritative for budget figures and government statements [1][4][5][6].
Labor Comparison
Did Labor do something similar?
Search conducted: "Labor government budget surplus promises forecasts accuracy Australian budgets"
Labor has made similar deficit/surplus projections with varying accuracy. However, the Labor government that immediately preceded the Coalition (2007-2013, Rudd/Gillard/Rudd governments) inherited a strong fiscal position and initially delivered surpluses, before the Global Financial Crisis forced significant deficits [9].
When the Coalition returned to power in 2013, they inherited a deficit situation and gradually improved the fiscal position, eventually forecasting (in 2019) a return to surplus. The key difference: Labor's subsequent projections (2022-2025) included more conservative surplus assumptions, partly informed by the Coalition's experience that even modest surplus targets could prove unrealistic [10].
Both major parties have experienced forecast accuracy challenges. However, the Coalition's 2019 projection proved uniquely optimistic, suggesting issues with either forecasting methodology or political motivation to present rosy pre-election scenarios.
Balanced Perspective
Criticisms of the Coalition's "Back in Black" Claims:
The government's 2019 projections were substantially inaccurate. Critics argue this demonstrates either: (1) poor economic forecasting, (2) political optimization of projections to support election prospects, or (3) both [11]. The magnitude of revision—from $35.9 billion in projected surpluses to $251.4 billion in actual deficits over three years—was massive and raised questions about the rigor of Treasury modeling [5].
The fact that Treasurer Frydenberg abandoned the surplus goal as "unrealistic" within 18 months suggests the original commitment was politically rather than economically grounded [7].
Coalition's Perspective and Context:
The government could argue that: (1) The original projections were based on economic conditions in April 2019, which were reasonable at that time [2]. (2) COVID-19 created an unforeseeable emergency that made deficit spending both necessary and widely accepted across the political spectrum [4]. (3) The forecasting errors that became apparent even in MYEFO December 2019 reflected genuine economic uncertainty, not intentional deception [4].
The Coalition maintained that emergency spending during COVID was appropriate fiscal policy and that long-term structural improvements were still occurring despite cyclical deficits [6].
Independent Analysis:
The Conversation and other independent observers noted that: (1) The 2019 budget contained several optimistic assumptions even before COVID-19 [3]. (2) Delivering the budget just before an election created incentives to present rosy scenarios [3]. (3) Even adjusted for COVID, the initial forecasting errors suggested overly optimistic economic assumptions [5].
This appears to be a systemic issue across Australian governments—tendency toward optimistic forecasts during election cycles—rather than unique to the Coalition [12].
Key Context: The 2019 budget projections were both technically a forecast (not a false claim of current surplus) AND substantively inaccurate even before COVID-19 occurred. Whether this constitutes "lying" depends on intent: if the government knowingly used inflated projections for electoral advantage, it approaches deception; if the projections reflected genuinely optimistic but erroneous economic assumptions, it reflects poor forecasting rather than dishonesty. The evidence suggests the truth lies somewhere in between.
PARTIALLY TRUE
6.5
out of 10
The Coalition government did announce a return to surplus in the April 2019 budget, making the claim technically accurate as a statement of what was announced [1][2]. However, the projections proved dramatically inaccurate. The 2019-20 financial year produced an $85.3 billion deficit instead of the projected $7.1 billion surplus [4], and subsequent years saw even larger deficits. Treasury projections for three-year surpluses of $35.9 billion became actual deficits of $251.4 billion [5]. While COVID-19 provided unavoidable fiscal pressures, the initial projections were questionable even before the pandemic, as evidenced by December 2019 revisions [4]. Characterizing this as "lying" may overstate the case if the government genuinely believed the optimistic projections, but "misleading" is justified given the dramatic inaccuracy and the election-cycle timing of the announcement [3][11].
Final Score
6.5
OUT OF 10
PARTIALLY TRUE
The Coalition government did announce a return to surplus in the April 2019 budget, making the claim technically accurate as a statement of what was announced [1][2]. However, the projections proved dramatically inaccurate. The 2019-20 financial year produced an $85.3 billion deficit instead of the projected $7.1 billion surplus [4], and subsequent years saw even larger deficits. Treasury projections for three-year surpluses of $35.9 billion became actual deficits of $251.4 billion [5]. While COVID-19 provided unavoidable fiscal pressures, the initial projections were questionable even before the pandemic, as evidenced by December 2019 revisions [4]. Characterizing this as "lying" may overstate the case if the government genuinely believed the optimistic projections, but "misleading" is justified given the dramatic inaccuracy and the election-cycle timing of the announcement [3][11].
📚 SOURCES & CITATIONS (11)
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1
theconversation.com
The budget – the first brought down by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg – doubles the tax relief that average earners were due to receive within weeks, from $530 in last year’s budget to $1,080.
The Conversation -
2
sbs.com.au
Sbs Com
Original link unavailable — view archived version -
3
morningstar.com.au
Morningstar Com
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4
ministers.treasury.gov.au
Ministers Treasury Gov
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5
austaxpolicy.com
Australia’s Final Budget Outcome for 2019-20 has been released. In 2019-20, the Australian Government general government sector recorded an underlying cash deficit of $85.3 billion… Read More ›
Austaxpolicy: The Tax and Transfer Policy Blog -
6
ministers.treasury.gov.au
Ministers Treasury Gov
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7
nasdaq.com
Nasdaq
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8
abs.gov.au
Statistics about finances of the general government and public corporation sectors for the various levels of government in Australia
Australian Bureau of Statistics -
9
aph.gov.au
Aph Gov -
10
theconversation.com
The budget projects an improvement of more than $143 billion over four years, compared to the Coalition’s final budget, brought down in March last year by Josh Frydenberg
The Conversation -
11
independentaustralia.net
Since it's Federal Budget day, it's a perfect time to reflect on the lies told by the Coalition leading up to the 2019 Election.
Independent Australia
Rating Scale Methodology
1-3: FALSE
Factually incorrect or malicious fabrication.
4-6: PARTIAL
Some truth but context is missing or skewed.
7-9: MOSTLY TRUE
Minor technicalities or phrasing issues.
10: ACCURATE
Perfectly verified and contextually fair.
Methodology: Ratings are determined through cross-referencing official government records, independent fact-checking organizations, and primary source documents.