部分属实

评分: 5.5/10

Coalition
C0017

声明内容

“在法国潜艇上花费了55亿澳元,而这些潜艇从未建成。(此外,还有一笔未披露的提前终止合同费用,约为4亿澳元。)”
原始来源: Matthew Davis
分析时间: 29 Jan 2026

原始来源

事实核查

gāi gāi 核心hé xīn hé xīn 主张zhǔ zhāng zhǔ zhāng 存在cún zài cún zài 重大zhòng dà zhòng dà 事实shì shí shì shí 错误cuò wù cuò wù
The core claim contains a significant factual error.
5555 55 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 这一zhè yī zhè yī 数字shù zì shù zì bìng bìng 完全wán quán wán quán 准确zhǔn què zhǔn què
The $5.5 billion figure is not entirely accurate as claimed.
澳大利亚广播公司ào dà lì yà guǎng bō gōng sī ào dà lì yà guǎng bō gōng sī ABCABC ABC 报道bào dào bào dào bèi bèi 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo de de 法国fǎ guó fǎ guó 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 可能kě néng kě néng gěi gěi 纳税人nà shuì rén nà shuì rén 带来dài lái dài lái 高达gāo dá gāo dá 5555 55 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán de de ** * 最高zuì gāo zuì gāo ** * 估算gū suàn gū suàn 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] dàn dàn zhè zhè 并非bìng fēi bìng fēi 最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 实际shí jì shí jì 支出zhī chū zhī chū
According to the ABC, the cancelled French submarine program could cost taxpayers up to $5.5 billion as a potential *maximum* estimate [1], but this was not the final cost incurred.
实际shí jì shí jì 结算jié suàn jié suàn 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng shì shì 通过tōng guò tōng guò 莫里森mò lǐ sēn mò lǐ sēn 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 20212021 2021 nián nián 谈判tán pàn tán pàn 随后suí hòu suí hòu yóu yóu 阿尔巴尼ā ěr bā ní ā ěr bā ní 斯政府sī zhèng fǔ sī zhèng fǔ 20222022 2022 nián nián 最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 确定què dìng què dìng de de 这些zhè xiē zhè xiē 数字shù zì shù zì 有所不同yǒu suǒ bù tóng yǒu suǒ bù tóng
The actual settled cost, determined through negotiations between the Morrison government (2021) and subsequently finalized by the Albanese government (2022), differs from these figures.
澳大利亚广播公司ào dà lì yà guǎng bō gōng sī ào dà lì yà guǎng bō gōng sī 20222022 2022 nián nián 44 4 yuè yuè 报道bào dào bào dào chēng chēng 国防部guó fáng bù guó fáng bù 官员guān yuán guān yuán 表示biǎo shì biǎo shì "" " 最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 谈判tán pàn tán pàn 达成dá chéng dá chéng de de 和解hé jiě hé jiě 金额jīn é jīn é jiāng jiāng 低于dī yú dī yú 这一zhè yī zhè yī 价格jià gé jià gé 参议员cān yì yuán cān yì yuán "" " zhǐ zhǐ de de shì shì 5555 55 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán de de 上限shàng xiàn shàng xiàn 估算gū suàn gū suàn [[ [ 11 1 ]] ]
The ABC reported in April 2022 that Defence officials stated "the final negotiated settlement will be within that price, senator" regarding the $5.5 billion upper estimate [1].
然而rán ér rán ér dào dào 20222022 2022 nián nián 66 6 yuè yuè 阿尔巴尼ā ěr bā ní ā ěr bā ní 总理zǒng lǐ zǒng lǐ 宣布xuān bù xuān bù 海军hǎi jūn hǎi jūn 集团jí tuán jí tuán 达成dá chéng dá chéng 8.358.35 8.35 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán de de 赔偿péi cháng péi cháng 和解hé jiě hé jiě 根据gēn jù gēn jù 总理zǒng lǐ zǒng lǐ 声明shēng míng shēng míng 这使zhè shǐ zhè shǐ "" " qián qián 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 失败shī bài shī bài 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè de de 总成本zǒng chéng běn zǒng chéng běn 达到dá dào dá dào 3434 34 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán "" " [[ [ 22 2 ]] ]
However, by June 2022, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a final settlement with Naval Group for $835 million in compensation, bringing the "total cost of the former government's failed policy to $3.4 billion" according to the Prime Minister's statement [2].
zhè zhè 3434 34 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 包括bāo kuò bāo kuò 多项duō xiàng duō xiàng 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng xiàng xiàng 海军hǎi jūn hǎi jūn 集团jí tuán jí tuán 支付zhī fù zhī fù de de 8.358.35 8.35 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 和解hé jiě hé jiě jīn jīn 加上jiā shàng jiā shàng 其他qí tā qí tā 终止zhōng zhǐ zhōng zhǐ 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng 资产zī chǎn zī chǎn 减值jiǎn zhí jiǎn zhí 重新chóng xīn chóng xīn 安置ān zhì ān zhì 成本chéng běn chéng běn
This $3.4 billion figure included various costs: the $835 million settlement to Naval Group, plus other termination expenses, asset writedowns, and re-employment costs.
20222022 2022 nián nián 1111 11 yuè yuè de de 参议院cān yì yuàn cān yì yuàn 预算yù suàn yù suàn 听证会tīng zhèng huì tīng zhèng huì 显示xiǎn shì xiǎn shì 还有hái yǒu hái yǒu 额外é wài é wài de de 5.915.91 5.91 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 补充bǔ chōng bǔ chōng 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng wèi wèi 使用shǐ yòng shǐ yòng 基础设施jī chǔ shè shī jī chǔ shè shī de de 资产zī chǎn zī chǎn 减值jiǎn zhí jiǎn zhí 重新chóng xīn chóng xīn 就业jiù yè jiù yè 援助yuán zhù yuán zhù 使shǐ shǐ 披露pī lù pī lù de de 总成本zǒng chéng běn zǒng chéng běn 达到dá dào dá dào yuē yuē 4242 42 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán [[ [ 33 3 ]] ]
Senate estimates in November 2022 revealed an additional $591 million in supplementary costs (asset writedowns on unused infrastructure and re-employment assistance), bringing disclosed costs to approximately $4.2 billion [3].
zhè zhè 明显míng xiǎn míng xiǎn 低于dī yú dī yú gāi gāi 主张zhǔ zhāng zhǔ zhāng zhōng zhōng 引用yǐn yòng yǐn yòng de de 5555 55 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 最高zuì gāo zuì gāo 金额jīn é jīn é
This is notably less than the $5.5 billion maximum cited in the claim.
终止zhōng zhǐ zhōng zhǐ 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng 部分bù fèn bù fèn 存在cún zài cún zài 误述wù shù wù shù
The termination fee component is also misrepresented.
gāi gāi 主张zhǔ zhāng zhǔ zhāng 暗示àn shì àn shì "" " 提前tí qián tí qián 终止zhōng zhǐ zhōng zhǐ 合同hé tóng hé tóng de de wèi wèi 披露pī lù pī lù 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng yuē yuē wèi wèi 44 4 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán "" " 然而rán ér rán ér 海军hǎi jūn hǎi jūn 集团jí tuán jí tuán 达成dá chéng dá chéng de de 8.358.35 8.35 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 和解hé jiě hé jiě 金于jīn yú jīn yú 20222022 2022 nián nián 66 6 yuè yuè 经过jīng guò jīng guò 公开gōng kāi gōng kāi 谈判tán pàn tán pàn bìng bìng 披露pī lù pī lù [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] 并非bìng fēi bìng fēi wèi wèi 披露pī lù pī lù 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng
The claim suggests an "undisclosed fee for early contract termination, which is approximately $400 million" - however, the $835 million settlement with Naval Group was publicly negotiated and disclosed in June 2022 [2], not an undisclosed fee.
这笔zhè bǐ zhè bǐ 和解hé jiě hé jiě jīn jīn 涵盖hán gài hán gài 终止zhōng zhǐ zhōng zhǐ 义务yì wù yì wù 赔偿péi cháng péi cháng ér ér fēi fēi 单独dān dú dān dú wèi wèi 披露pī lù pī lù de de 金额jīn é jīn é
This settlement covered termination obligations and compensation, not a separately undisclosed amount.

缺失背景

gāi gāi 主张zhǔ zhāng zhǔ zhāng 忽略hū lüè hū lüè le le 关于guān yú guān yú 合同hé tóng hé tóng 为何wèi hé wèi hé bèi bèi 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo 以及yǐ jí yǐ jí zài zài 何种hé zhǒng hé zhǒng 情况qíng kuàng qíng kuàng xià xià bèi bèi 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo de de 关键guān jiàn guān jiàn 背景bèi jǐng bèi jǐng
The claim omits critical context about why the contract was cancelled and under what circumstances. **Strategic Rationale:** The French submarine contract was abandoned not due to Coalition incompetence or wasteful spending, but because the government shifted to nuclear-powered submarines through the AUKUS partnership (Australia-United Kingdom-United States) announced September 2021 [4].
** * ** * 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 理由lǐ yóu lǐ yóu ** * ** * 法国fǎ guó fǎ guó 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 合同hé tóng hé tóng bèi bèi 放弃fàng qì fàng qì 并非bìng fēi bìng fēi 由于yóu yú yóu yú CoalitionCoalition Coalition de de 无能wú néng wú néng huò huò 浪费làng fèi làng fèi 性支出xìng zhī chū xìng zhī chū 而是ér shì ér shì 因为yīn wèi yīn wèi 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 通过tōng guò tōng guò 20212021 2021 nián nián 99 9 yuè yuè 宣布xuān bù xuān bù de de AUKUSAUKUS AUKUS 伙伴关系huǒ bàn guān xì huǒ bàn guān xì 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà -- - 英国yīng guó yīng guó -- - 美国měi guó měi guó 转向zhuǎn xiàng zhuǎn xiàng 核动力hé dòng lì hé dòng lì 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng [[ [ 44 4 ]] ]
This was a deliberate strategic decision to enhance Australia's defence capabilities in response to changed regional security assessments, not a reversal of a bad original decision. **Contract Status:** Importantly, the contract was cancelled well before construction commenced.
这是zhè shì zhè shì 一项yī xiàng yī xiàng 深思熟虑shēn sī shú lǜ shēn sī shú lǜ de de 战略决策zhàn lüè jué cè zhàn lüè jué cè 旨在zhǐ zài zhǐ zài 根据gēn jù gēn jù 变化biàn huà biàn huà de de 地区dì qū dì qū 安全ān quán ān quán 评估píng gū píng gū 增强zēng qiáng zēng qiáng 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà de de 国防guó fáng guó fáng 能力néng lì néng lì ér ér fēi fēi duì duì 错误cuò wù cuò wù 原始yuán shǐ yuán shǐ 决定jué dìng jué dìng de de 逆转nì zhuǎn nì zhuǎn
The Defence Department's Tony Dalton confirmed "the contract being torn up well before construction was to begin" [1].
** * ** * 合同hé tóng hé tóng 状态zhuàng tài zhuàng tài ** * ** * 重要zhòng yào zhòng yào de de shì shì 合同hé tóng hé tóng zài zài 开工kāi gōng kāi gōng qián qián jiù jiù bèi bèi 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo
No submarines were actually built, meaning Australia did not lose completed defense assets - it paid to exit an unfulfilled contract. **Timing of Announcement:** The Coalition government under Prime Minister Scott Morrison made the AUKUS announcement in September 2021 [4], ending the French contract.
国防部guó fáng bù guó fáng bù TonyTony Tony DaltonDalton Dalton 证实zhèng shí zhèng shí "" " 合同hé tóng hé tóng zài zài 开工kāi gōng kāi gōng qián qián hěn hěn jiǔ jiǔ jiù jiù bèi bèi 撕毁sī huǐ sī huǐ "" " [[ [ 11 1 ]] ]
The Labour government under Anthony Albanese took office in May 2022 and inherited the task of negotiating the final settlement with Naval Group.
实际上shí jì shàng shí jì shàng 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 建造jiàn zào jiàn zào 任何rèn hé rèn hé 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng zhè zhè 意味着yì wèi zhe yì wèi zhe 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 并未bìng wèi bìng wèi 损失sǔn shī sǔn shī 完成wán chéng wán chéng de de 国防guó fáng guó fáng 资产zī chǎn zī chǎn 而是ér shì ér shì 支付zhī fù zhī fù le le 退出tuì chū tuì chū wèi wèi 履行合同lǚ xíng hé tóng lǚ xíng hé tóng de de 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng
The final settlement figure of $835 million (totaling ~$3.4 billion with other costs) was negotiated and disclosed publicly by the Albanese government in June 2022 [2]. **Comparative Submarine Programs:** This needs historical context.
** * ** * 宣布xuān bù xuān bù 时机shí jī shí jī ** * ** * ScottScott Scott MorrisonMorrison Morrison 总理zǒng lǐ zǒng lǐ 领导lǐng dǎo lǐng dǎo de de CoalitionCoalition Coalition 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 20212021 2021 nián nián 99 9 yuè yuè 宣布xuān bù xuān bù AUKUSAUKUS AUKUS 协议xié yì xié yì [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] 终止zhōng zhǐ zhōng zhǐ le le 法国fǎ guó fǎ guó 合同hé tóng hé tóng
Australia's previous submarine program, the Collins-class, built between 1990-2003, cost approximately $20 billion with severe technical problems and cost overruns [5].
AnthonyAnthony Anthony AlbaneseAlbanese Albanese 领导lǐng dǎo lǐng dǎo de de 工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 20222022 2022 nián nián 55 5 yuè yuè 上台shàng tái shàng tái 继承jì chéng jì chéng le le 海军hǎi jūn hǎi jūn 集团jí tuán jí tuán 谈判tán pàn tán pàn 最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 和解hé jiě hé jiě de de 任务rèn wù rèn wù
While that program produced 6 submarines, it demonstrates that submarine acquisition is inherently expensive and prone to cost escalation across governments.
8.358.35 8.35 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán de de 最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 和解hé jiě hé jiě 金额jīn é jīn é 总计zǒng jì zǒng jì yuē yuē 3434 34 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 及其jí qí jí qí 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng yóu yóu 阿尔巴尼ā ěr bā ní ā ěr bā ní 斯政府sī zhèng fǔ sī zhèng fǔ 20222022 2022 nián nián 66 6 yuè yuè 公开gōng kāi gōng kāi 谈判tán pàn tán pàn bìng bìng 披露pī lù pī lù [[ [ 22 2 ]] ]
** * ** * 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 历史背景lì shǐ bèi jǐng lì shǐ bèi jǐng ** * ** * zhè zhè 需要xū yào xū yào 历史背景lì shǐ bèi jǐng lì shǐ bèi jǐng
澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 之前zhī qián zhī qián de de 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù CollinsCollins Collins 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 建于jiàn yú jiàn yú 19901990 1990 -- - 20032003 2003 年间nián jiān nián jiān 耗资hào zī hào zī yuē yuē 200200 200 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 存在cún zài cún zài 严重yán zhòng yán zhòng de de 技术jì shù jì shù 问题wèn tí wèn tí 成本chéng běn chéng běn 超支chāo zhī chāo zhī [[ [ 55 5 ]] ]
虽然suī rán suī rán gāi gāi 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 生产shēng chǎn shēng chǎn le le 66 6 sōu sōu 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng dàn dàn 表明biǎo míng biǎo míng 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 采购cǎi gòu cǎi gòu 本身běn shēn běn shēn jiù jiù 成本chéng běn chéng běn 高昂gāo áng gāo áng qiě qiě zài zài 各届gè jiè gè jiè 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 任内rèn nèi rèn nèi dōu dōu 容易róng yì róng yì 出现chū xiàn chū xiàn 成本chéng běn chéng běn 激增jī zēng jī zēng

来源可信度评估

提供tí gōng tí gōng de de 原始yuán shǐ yuán shǐ 来源lái yuán lái yuán shì shì 主流zhǔ liú zhǔ liú 可信kě xìn kě xìn de de 媒体méi tǐ méi tǐ
The original sources provided are mainstream, credible outlets: - **ABC News** [1]: Australia's public broadcaster, considered the most authoritative mainstream news source in Australia with strong fact-checking standards [6]. - **The Guardian Australia** [2][3]: Part of the international Guardian Media Group, mainstream news organization with editorial standards, though with documented center-left editorial perspective [7].
-- - ** * ** * 澳大利亚广播公司ào dà lì yà guǎng bō gōng sī ào dà lì yà guǎng bō gōng sī ABCABC ABC 新闻xīn wén xīn wén ** * ** * [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 公共广播gōng gòng guǎng bō gōng gòng guǎng bō 公司gōng sī gōng sī bèi bèi 认为rèn wéi rèn wéi shì shì 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà zuì zuì 权威quán wēi quán wēi de de 主流zhǔ liú zhǔ liú 新闻来源xīn wén lái yuán xīn wén lái yuán 具有jù yǒu jù yǒu 严格yán gé yán gé de de 事实shì shí shì shí 核查hé chá hé chá 标准biāo zhǔn biāo zhǔn [[ [ 66 6 ]] ]
All three sources are credible mainstream news organizations.
-- - ** * ** * 卫报wèi bào wèi bào 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà bǎn bǎn ** * ** * [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] [[ [ 33 3 ]] ] 国际guó jì guó jì 卫报wèi bào wèi bào 媒体méi tǐ méi tǐ 集团jí tuán jí tuán de de 一部分yī bù fèn yī bù fèn 主流zhǔ liú zhǔ liú 新闻xīn wén xīn wén 机构jī gòu jī gòu 具有jù yǒu jù yǒu 编辑biān jí biān jí 标准biāo zhǔn biāo zhǔn dàn dàn 带有dài yǒu dài yǒu 记录jì lù jì lù de de 中间zhōng jiān zhōng jiān 偏左piān zuǒ piān zuǒ 编辑biān jí biān jí 立场lì chǎng lì chǎng [[ [ 77 7 ]] ]
However, the claim itself cherry-picks the highest *possible* estimate ($5.5 billion as a maximum rather than the final settled figure) and mischaracterizes the termination fee as "undisclosed" when it was publicly disclosed in negotiations.
zhè zhè 三个sān gè sān gè 来源lái yuán lái yuán dōu dōu shì shì 可信kě xìn kě xìn de de 主流zhǔ liú zhǔ liú 新闻xīn wén xīn wén 机构jī gòu jī gòu
然而rán ér rán ér gāi gāi 主张zhǔ zhāng zhǔ zhāng 本身běn shēn běn shēn 断章取义duàn zhāng qǔ yì duàn zhāng qǔ yì 选取xuǎn qǔ xuǎn qǔ le le ** * 可能kě néng kě néng de de ** * 最高zuì gāo zuì gāo 估算gū suàn gū suàn 5555 55 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 作为zuò wéi zuò wéi 最高值zuì gāo zhí zuì gāo zhí ér ér fēi fēi 最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 确定què dìng què dìng 数字shù zì shù zì bìng bìng jiāng jiāng 终止zhōng zhǐ zhōng zhǐ 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng 错误cuò wù cuò wù 定性dìng xìng dìng xìng wèi wèi "" " wèi wèi 披露pī lù pī lù "" " ér ér 实际上shí jì shàng shí jì shàng gāi gāi 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng shì shì zài zài 谈判tán pàn tán pàn zhōng zhōng 公开gōng kāi gōng kāi de de
⚖️

工党对比

** * ** * 工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng 是否shì fǒu shì fǒu 做过zuò guò zuò guò 类似lèi sì lèi sì de de 事情shì qíng shì qíng
**Did Labor do something similar?** Search conducted: "Labor government defence program cancellation costs Australia Collins-class submarine" **Labor's Defence Program History:** The Rudd/Gillard Labor governments (2007-2013) inherited and continued the Collins-class submarine program which had already accumulated massive cost overruns.
** * ** *
The Collins-class program, initiated under the Hawke Labor government (1983-1991), ultimately cost approximately $20 billion to produce 6 submarines, with pervasive technical problems, schedule delays, and design flaws [5].
搜索sōu suǒ sōu suǒ 内容nèi róng nèi róng "" " LaborLabor Labor 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 国防guó fáng guó fáng 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo 成本chéng běn chéng běn 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà CollinsCollins Collins 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng "" "
This represents significant wasteful spending by a Labor government - proportionally larger than the French submarine cancellation costs.
** * ** * 工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng de de 国防guó fáng guó fáng 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 历史lì shǐ lì shǐ ** * ** *
More directly, the Rudd government cancelled several defence projects.
陆克文lù kè wén lù kè wén // / 吉拉德jí lā dé jí lā dé 工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 20072007 2007 -- - 20132013 2013 继承jì chéng jì chéng bìng bìng 继续jì xù jì xù le le 已经yǐ jīng yǐ jīng 累积lěi jī lěi jī 巨额jù é jù é 成本chéng běn chéng běn 超支chāo zhī chāo zhī de de CollinsCollins Collins 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù
However, the French submarine cancellation was a deliberate strategic pivot (AUKUS) rather than a program failure - fundamentally different from the Collins-class which was a flawed program that Labor inherited and struggled with. **Key Difference:** Labor's Collins-class problems involved cost overruns on a completed but problematic program.
CollinsCollins Collins 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù yóu yóu 霍克huò kè huò kè 工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 19831983 1983 -- - 19911991 1991 发起fā qǐ fā qǐ 最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 耗资hào zī hào zī yuē yuē 200200 200 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 生产shēng chǎn shēng chǎn 66 6 sōu sōu 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 普遍存在pǔ biàn cún zài pǔ biàn cún zài 技术jì shù jì shù 问题wèn tí wèn tí 进度jìn dù jìn dù 延误yán wù yán wù 设计shè jì shè jì 缺陷quē xiàn quē xiàn [[ [ 55 5 ]] ]
The Coalition's French submarine cancellation involved exiting an unbuilt contract due to strategic reassessment.
zhè zhè 代表dài biǎo dài biǎo le le 工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ de de 重大zhòng dà zhòng dà 浪费làng fèi làng fèi 性支出xìng zhī chū xìng zhī chū àn àn 比例bǐ lì bǐ lì 计算jì suàn jì suàn 法国fǎ guó fǎ guó 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo 成本chéng běn chéng běn 更大gèng dà gèng dà
The former represents failed execution; the latter represents strategic reorientation.
gèng gèng 直接zhí jiē zhí jiē 地说dì shuō dì shuō 陆克文lù kè wén lù kè wén 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo le le 几个jǐ gè jǐ gè 国防guó fáng guó fáng 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù
然而rán ér rán ér 法国fǎ guó fǎ guó 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo shì shì 一项yī xiàng yī xiàng 深思熟虑shēn sī shú lǜ shēn sī shú lǜ de de 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 转变zhuǎn biàn zhuǎn biàn AUKUSAUKUS AUKUS ér ér fēi fēi 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 失败shī bài shī bài CollinsCollins Collins yǒu yǒu 本质区别běn zhì qū bié běn zhì qū bié 后者hòu zhě hòu zhě shì shì 工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng 继承jì chéng jì chéng bìng bìng 苦苦kǔ kǔ kǔ kǔ 应对yìng duì yìng duì de de 问题wèn tí wèn tí 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù
** * ** * 关键guān jiàn guān jiàn 区别qū bié qū bié ** * ** * 工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng de de CollinsCollins Collins 问题wèn tí wèn tí 涉及shè jí shè jí 完成wán chéng wán chéng dàn dàn 问题wèn tí wèn tí 重重的chóng chóng de chóng chóng de 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù de de 成本chéng běn chéng běn 超支chāo zhī chāo zhī
CoalitionCoalition Coalition de de 法国fǎ guó fǎ guó 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo 涉及shè jí shè jí yīn yīn 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 重新chóng xīn chóng xīn 评估píng gū píng gū ér ér 退出tuì chū tuì chū 未建造wèi jiàn zào wèi jiàn zào 合同hé tóng hé tóng
前者qián zhě qián zhě 代表dài biǎo dài biǎo 执行zhí xíng zhí xíng 失败shī bài shī bài 后者hòu zhě hòu zhě 代表dài biǎo dài biǎo 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 重新chóng xīn chóng xīn 定位dìng wèi dìng wèi
🌐

平衡视角

** * ** * CoalitionCoalition Coalition de de 辩护biàn hù biàn hù ** * ** *
**Coalition Justification:** Finance Minister Simon Birmingham stated: "You could wish that we had more information and the availability of nuclear-powered submarines at an earlier time.
财政部长cái zhèng bù zhǎng cái zhèng bù zhǎng SimonSimon Simon BirminghamBirmingham Birmingham 表示biǎo shì biǎo shì "" " 可以kě yǐ kě yǐ 希望xī wàng xī wàng 我们wǒ men wǒ men gèng gèng zǎo zǎo 获得huò dé huò dé 信息xìn xī xìn xī 核动力hé dòng lì hé dòng lì 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 技术jì shù jì shù de de 可用性kě yòng xìng kě yòng xìng
We didn't have that technology available to us, we didn't have that information available to us" [1].
我们wǒ men wǒ men 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 那种nà zhǒng nà zhǒng 可用kě yòng kě yòng de de 技术jì shù jì shù 我们wǒ men wǒ men 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 那种nà zhǒng nà zhǒng 可用kě yòng kě yòng de de 信息xìn xī xìn xī "" " [[ [ 11 1 ]] ]
The decision reflected genuine strategic reassessment - the US and UK offered nuclear submarine technology that wasn't previously available to Australia, changing the optimal defence strategy.
这一zhè yī zhè yī 决定jué dìng jué dìng 反映fǎn yìng fǎn yìng le le 真正zhēn zhèng zhēn zhèng de de 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 重新chóng xīn chóng xīn 评估píng gū píng gū 美国měi guó měi guó 英国yīng guó yīng guó 提供tí gōng tí gōng le le 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 此前cǐ qián cǐ qián 无法wú fǎ wú fǎ 获得huò dé huò dé de de 核潜艇hé qián tǐng hé qián tǐng 技术jì shù jì shù 改变gǎi biàn gǎi biàn le le 最佳zuì jiā zuì jiā 国防guó fáng guó fáng 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè
Defence experts have noted that nuclear-powered submarines offer significant capability advantages: greater range, speed, endurance, and stealth compared to diesel-electric models [8].
国防guó fáng guó fáng 专家zhuān jiā zhuān jiā 指出zhǐ chū zhǐ chū 核动力hé dòng lì hé dòng lì 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 具有jù yǒu jù yǒu 显著xiǎn zhù xiǎn zhù de de 能力néng lì néng lì 优势yōu shì yōu shì 柴电chái diàn chái diàn 型号xíng hào xíng hào 相比xiāng bǐ xiāng bǐ 航程háng chéng háng chéng gèng gèng yuǎn yuǎn 速度sù dù sù dù gèng gèng kuài kuài 续航xù háng xù háng 能力néng lì néng lì 更强gèng qiáng gèng qiáng 隐蔽性yǐn bì xìng yǐn bì xìng 更好gèng hǎo gèng hǎo [[ [ 88 8 ]] ]
The strategic shift reflects changing Indo-Pacific security dynamics and technological opportunity, not mismanagement of the original program. **Criticisms:** Shadow Defence Minister Brendan O'Connor criticized: "Murky numbers from the Morrison government on the Attack Class submarines is sadly unsurprising... their cost blowouts run into the billions of dollars" [1].
这一zhè yī zhè yī 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 转变zhuǎn biàn zhuǎn biàn 反映fǎn yìng fǎn yìng le le 印太yìn tài yìn tài 地区dì qū dì qū 安全ān quán ān quán 格局gé jú gé jú de de 变化biàn huà biàn huà 技术jì shù jì shù 机遇jī yù jī yù ér ér fēi fēi duì duì 原始yuán shǐ yuán shǐ 项目管理xiàng mù guǎn lǐ xiàng mù guǎn lǐ 不善bù shàn bù shàn
Labor correctly pointed out that the Morrison government did not adequately budget for termination costs and was unclear about total expenses.
** * ** * 批评pī píng pī píng ** * ** *
However, this criticism misrepresents the situation slightly.
影子yǐng zi yǐng zi 国防部长guó fáng bù zhǎng guó fáng bù zhǎng BrendanBrendan Brendan OO O '' ' ConnorConnor Connor 批评pī píng pī píng dào dào "" " 莫里森mò lǐ sēn mò lǐ sēn 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 关于guān yú guān yú 攻击gōng jī gōng jī 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng de de 模糊mó hú mó hú 数字shù zì shù zì 令人遗憾lìng rén yí hàn lìng rén yí hàn 毫不háo bù háo bù 意外yì wài yì wài 他们tā men tā men de de 成本chéng běn chéng běn 激增jī zēng jī zēng 数十shù shí shù shí 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán "" " [[ [ 11 1 ]] ]
The French contract cancellation was not a "cost blowout" in the traditional sense - it was an exit cost from an unbuilt contract.
工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng 正确zhèng què zhèng què 指出zhǐ chū zhǐ chū 莫里森mò lǐ sēn mò lǐ sēn 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu wèi wèi 终止zhōng zhǐ zhōng zhǐ 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng 做好zuò hǎo zuò hǎo 充分chōng fèn chōng fèn 预算yù suàn yù suàn duì duì 总支出zǒng zhī chū zǒng zhī chū 透明tòu míng tòu míng
Cost blowouts typically refer to projects exceeding their budgets during execution. **AUKUS Sustainability Questions:** It's worth noting that critics have raised concerns about the AUKUS replacement program's own costs.
然而rán ér rán ér 这一zhè yī zhè yī 批评pī píng pī píng zài zài 一定yí dìng yí dìng 程度chéng dù chéng dù shàng shàng 歪曲wāi qū wāi qū le le 情况qíng kuàng qíng kuàng
Strategic analysts estimate the nuclear submarine program could cost $268-368 billion over 30 years [9], raising questions about whether cancelling the "cheaper" French option was economically optimal.
法国fǎ guó fǎ guó 合同hé tóng hé tóng 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo 并非bìng fēi bìng fēi 传统意义chuán tǒng yì yì chuán tǒng yì yì shàng shàng de de "" " 成本chéng běn chéng běn 激增jī zēng jī zēng "" " 这是zhè shì zhè shì 退出tuì chū tuì chū 未建造wèi jiàn zào wèi jiàn zào 合同hé tóng hé tóng de de 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng
The Albanese government's own review noted defence program cost overruns as a systemic problem requiring major restructuring [10]. **Key Context:** The French submarine cancellation cost (~$3.4-4.2 billion) must be weighed against the strategic benefits of nuclear submarine capability.
成本chéng běn chéng běn 激增jī zēng jī zēng 通常tōng cháng tōng cháng zhǐ zhǐ 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 执行zhí xíng zhí xíng 期间qī jiān qī jiān 超出预算chāo chū yù suàn chāo chū yù suàn
Whether this tradeoff was wise depends on whether AUKUS delivers the promised strategic benefits - something that cannot be finally assessed while the AUKUS submarines remain in development.
** * ** * AUKUSAUKUS AUKUS 可持续性kě chí xù xìng kě chí xù xìng 问题wèn tí wèn tí ** * ** *
This is a legitimate policy debate rather than a simple case of government waste.
值得注意zhí de zhù yì zhí de zhù yì de de shì shì 批评者pī píng zhě pī píng zhě duì duì AUKUSAUKUS AUKUS 替代tì dài tì dài 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 自身zì shēn zì shēn de de 成本chéng běn chéng běn 提出tí chū tí chū le le 担忧dān yōu dān yōu
战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 分析家fēn xī jiā fēn xī jiā 估计gū jì gū jì 核潜艇hé qián tǐng hé qián tǐng 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 3030 30 年内nián nèi nián nèi 可能kě néng kě néng 耗资hào zī hào zī 26802680 2680 -- - 36803680 3680 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán [[ [ 99 9 ]] ] zhè zhè 引发yǐn fā yǐn fā le le 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo "" " gèng gèng 便宜pián yi pián yi "" " de de 法国fǎ guó fǎ guó 选项xuǎn xiàng xuǎn xiàng 是否shì fǒu shì fǒu 经济jīng jì jīng jì shàng shàng 最优zuì yōu zuì yōu de de 疑问yí wèn yí wèn
阿尔巴尼ā ěr bā ní ā ěr bā ní 斯政府sī zhèng fǔ sī zhèng fǔ 自身zì shēn zì shēn de de 审查shěn chá shěn chá 指出zhǐ chū zhǐ chū 国防guó fáng guó fáng 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 成本chéng běn chéng běn 超支chāo zhī chāo zhī shì shì 一个yí gè yí gè 需要xū yào xū yào 重大zhòng dà zhòng dà 重组chóng zǔ chóng zǔ de de 系统性xì tǒng xìng xì tǒng xìng 问题wèn tí wèn tí [[ [ 1010 10 ]] ]
** * ** * 关键guān jiàn guān jiàn 背景bèi jǐng bèi jǐng ** * ** * 法国fǎ guó fǎ guó 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 取消qǔ xiāo qǔ xiāo 成本chéng běn chéng běn yuē yuē 3434 34 -- - 4242 42 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 必须bì xū bì xū 核潜艇hé qián tǐng hé qián tǐng 能力néng lì néng lì de de 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 效益xiào yì xiào yì 权衡quán héng quán héng
这一zhè yī zhè yī 权衡quán héng quán héng 是否shì fǒu shì fǒu 明智míng zhì míng zhì 取决于qǔ jué yú qǔ jué yú AUKUSAUKUS AUKUS 是否shì fǒu shì fǒu néng néng 兑现duì xiàn duì xiàn 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò de de 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 效益xiào yì xiào yì zài zài AUKUSAUKUS AUKUS 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng réng réng zài zài 开发kāi fā kāi fā zhōng zhōng de de 情况qíng kuàng qíng kuàng xià xià zhè zhè 无法wú fǎ wú fǎ 最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 评估píng gū píng gū
这是zhè shì zhè shì 一个yí gè yí gè 正当zhèng dāng zhèng dāng de de 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè 辩论biàn lùn biàn lùn ér ér fēi fēi 简单jiǎn dān jiǎn dān de de 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 浪费làng fèi làng fèi 案例àn lì àn lì

部分属实

5.5

/ 10

gāi gāi 主张zhǔ zhāng zhǔ zhāng 部分bù fèn bù fèn 属实shǔ shí shǔ shí dàn dàn 显著xiǎn zhù xiǎn zhù 夸大kuā dà kuā dà le le 实际shí jì shí jì 发生fā shēng fā shēng de de 成本chéng běn chéng běn bìng bìng jiāng jiāng 和解hé jiě hé jiě 错误cuò wù cuò wù 定性dìng xìng dìng xìng wèi wèi "" " wèi wèi 披露pī lù pī lù "" "
The claim is partially true but significantly overstates the actual costs incurred and mischaracterizes the settlement as "undisclosed." The $5.5 billion was the *maximum estimate* stated in April 2022 [1], but the actual final cost settled by the Albanese government was $835 million to Naval Group, with total program costs including asset writedowns and re-employment totalling approximately $3.4-4.2 billion [2][3].
5555 55 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán shì shì 20222022 2022 nián nián 44 4 yuè yuè 所述suǒ shù suǒ shù de de ** * 最高zuì gāo zuì gāo 估算gū suàn gū suàn ** * [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] dàn dàn 阿尔巴尼ā ěr bā ní ā ěr bā ní 斯政府sī zhèng fǔ sī zhèng fǔ 最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 确定què dìng què dìng de de 实际shí jì shí jì 最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 成本chéng běn chéng běn shì shì xiàng xiàng 海军hǎi jūn hǎi jūn 集团jí tuán jí tuán 支付zhī fù zhī fù 8.358.35 8.35 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 加上jiā shàng jiā shàng 资产zī chǎn zī chǎn 减值jiǎn zhí jiǎn zhí 重新chóng xīn chóng xīn 安置ān zhì ān zhì 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng zǒng zǒng 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù 成本chéng běn chéng běn yuē yuē wèi wèi 3434 34 -- - 4242 42 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] [[ [ 33 3 ]] ]
This is substantially less than the $5.5 billion suggested by the claim's framing.
zhè zhè 明显míng xiǎn míng xiǎn 低于dī yú dī yú gāi gāi 主张zhǔ zhāng zhǔ zhāng suǒ suǒ 暗示àn shì àn shì de de 5555 55 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán
The termination fee was not "undisclosed" - the $835 million settlement was publicly negotiated and announced by the Prime Minister [2].
终止zhōng zhǐ zhōng zhǐ 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng 并非bìng fēi bìng fēi "" " wèi wèi 披露pī lù pī lù "" " 8.358.35 8.35 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán de de 和解hé jiě hé jiě 金由jīn yóu jīn yóu 总理zǒng lǐ zǒng lǐ 公开gōng kāi gōng kāi 谈判tán pàn tán pàn bìng bìng 宣布xuān bù xuān bù [[ [ 22 2 ]] ]
While the costs are significant, they represent an exit fee from an unbuilt contract due to strategic reassessment, not cost overruns on an executed program.
虽然suī rán suī rán 这些zhè xiē zhè xiē 成本chéng běn chéng běn 数额shù é shù é 巨大jù dà jù dà dàn dàn 它们tā men tā men 代表dài biǎo dài biǎo yīn yīn 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 重新chóng xīn chóng xīn 评估píng gū píng gū ér ér 退出tuì chū tuì chū 未建造wèi jiàn zào wèi jiàn zào 合同hé tóng hé tóng de de 退出tuì chū tuì chū 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng ér ér fēi fēi 执行zhí xíng zhí xíng 项目xiàng mù xiàng mù de de 成本chéng běn chéng běn 超支chāo zhī chāo zhī
The claim misleads by using the highest possible estimate and characterizing publicly-disclosed settlements as hidden, without acknowledging that the strategic rationale was the availability of superior nuclear submarine technology through AUKUS.
gāi gāi 主张zhǔ zhāng zhǔ zhāng 通过tōng guò tōng guò 使用shǐ yòng shǐ yòng 可能kě néng kě néng de de 最高zuì gāo zuì gāo 估算gū suàn gū suàn bìng bìng jiāng jiāng 公开gōng kāi gōng kāi 披露pī lù pī lù de de 和解hé jiě hé jiě jīn jīn 定性dìng xìng dìng xìng wèi wèi 隐藏yǐn cáng yǐn cáng 费用fèi yòng fèi yòng 具有jù yǒu jù yǒu 误导性wù dǎo xìng wù dǎo xìng qiě qiě wèi wèi 承认chéng rèn chéng rèn 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 理由lǐ yóu lǐ yóu shì shì AUKUSAUKUS AUKUS 提供tí gōng tí gōng le le 更优越gèng yōu yuè gèng yōu yuè de de 核动力hé dòng lì hé dòng lì 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 技术jì shù jì shù

📚 来源与引用 (8)

  1. 1
    abc.net.au

    abc.net.au

    Australia's torpedoed French submarine program could eventually cost taxpayers up to $5.5 billion, despite the contract being torn up well before construction was to begin 

    Abc Net
  2. 2
    abc.net.au

    abc.net.au

    The Australian government will pay French shipbuilder Naval Group $835 million in compensation, after last year's decision to tear up a $90-billion contract to build 12 submarines.

    Abc Net
  3. 3
    abc.net.au

    abc.net.au

    Details of up to $591 million in additional expenses for the cancelled French submarine program emerge in Senate estimates, including asset writedowns on unused infrastructure, and re-employment programs in Adelaide.

    Abc Net
  4. 4
    msn.com

    msn.com

    Msn

  5. 5
    abc.net.au

    abc.net.au

    Follow the latest headlines from ABC News, Australia's most trusted media source, with live events, audio and on-demand video from the national broadcaster.

    Abc Net
  6. 6
    theguardian.com

    theguardian.com

    Theguardian
  7. 7
    strategicanalysis.org

    strategicanalysis.org

    Strategic Analysis Australia

    Strategic Analysis Australia
  8. 8
    smh.com.au

    smh.com.au

    Defence Minister Richard Marles also announced the government was monitoring a Chinese naval flotilla that may be en route to the waters surrounding Australia.

    The Sydney Morning Herald

评分方法

1-3: 不实

事实错误或恶意捏造。

4-6: 部分属实

有一定真实性,但缺乏背景或有所偏颇。

7-9: 基本属实

仅有微小的技术性或措辞问题。

10: 准确

完全经过验证且客观公正。

方法论: 评分通过交叉参照政府官方记录、独立事实核查机构和原始文件确定。