C0256
Ang Claim
“Nangako na lilikha ng 1.25 milyong trabaho nang walang anumang kalkulasyon o modelo para makarating sa numerong iyon.”
Orihinal na Pinagmulan: Matthew Davis
Sinuri: 30 Jan 2026
Orihinal na Pinagmulan
✅ FACTUAL NA BERIPIKASYON
Ang claim ay **tumpak sa katotohanan** pagdating sa kakulangan ng Treasury modelling.
The claim is **factually accurate** regarding the lack of Treasury modelling.
Noong Marso 2019, isang Freedom of Information request ng Labor ang nagpahayag na ang Treasury ay may "walang dokumento sa loob ng saklaw ng iyong kahilingan" tungkol sa modelling o kalkulasyon para suportahan ang pangako ni Prime Minister Scott Morrison na lilikha ng 1.25 milyong trabaho sa loob ng limang taon [1]. In March 2019, a Freedom of Information request by Labor revealed that Treasury held "no documents within the scope of your request" regarding modelling or calculations to support Prime Minister Scott Morrison's pledge to create 1.25 million jobs over five years [1].
Ginawa ni Morrison ang pangakong ito noong Enero 2019 bilang bahagi ng kanyang pre-election platform, na sumunod sa naunang pangako ni Opposition Leader Tony Abbott na lilikha ng 1 milyong trabaho bago ang 2013 election [2]. Morrison made this commitment in January 2019 as part of his pre-election platform, echoing then-Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's earlier pledge to create 1 million jobs ahead of the 2013 election [2].
Ang pigura na 1.25 milyon ay isang pagtaas mula sa orihinal na pangako ni Abbott [2]. The 1.25 million figure represented an increase on Abbott's original commitment [2].
Sa Senate estimates, inamin ng mga opisyal ng Treasury na ang jobs target ng gobyerno "ay mangangailangan ng taunang jobs growth na 1.9 porsiyento, na mas mataas kaysa sa 1.5 porsiyento o 1.75 porsiyento na inaasahan sa kasalukuyang budget figures" [1]. At Senate estimates, Treasury officials acknowledged that the government's jobs target "would require annual jobs growth of 1.9 per cent, which is higher than the 1.5 per cent or 1.75 per cent assumed in current budget figures" [1].
Ang pagkakaibang ito sa pagitan ng pangako at ng sariling budget assumptions ng Treasury ay makabuluhan. This discrepancy between the pledge and Treasury's own budget assumptions is significant.
Ang Treasury department ng gobyerno, nang tanungin para sa dokumentasyon na sumusuporta sa pangako, ay walang maibigay [1]. The government's own Treasury department, when asked for documentation supporting the pledge, could produce nothing [1].
Tinawag ni Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen ito na "tamad at walang ingat," na nagsabing "Mabilis na pinapamodelo at pinapagastos ng Liberal Party ang Treasury sa mga patakaran ng Labor ngunit hindi nila pinapagastos ang kanilang sariling mga patakaran" [1]. Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen characterized this as "lazy and reckless," noting that "The Liberal Party is quick to get Treasury to model and cost Labor's policies but they couldn't be bothered getting their own policies modelled" [1].
Nawawalang Konteksto
Gayunpaman, ang claim ay nagmimintis sa ilang mahahalagang kontekstwal na elemento: **1.
However, the claim omits several important contextual elements:
**1.
Jobs growth bilang background baseline:** Patuloy na lumalaki ang populasyon at workforce ng Australia. Jobs growth as background baseline:** Australia's population and workforce are growing continuously.
Ang working-age population ng Australia ay lumalagpas sa 20 milyon at mabilis na tumataas, ibig sabihin ang labour market ay dapat lumikha ng higit sa 1 milyong bagong trabaho bawat limang taon para makasabay lamang sa paglago ng populasyon [3]. Australia's working-age population exceeds 20 million and is growing rapidly, meaning the labour market must create more than 1 million new jobs every five years just to keep pace with population growth [3].
Ang mga jobs growth figures kaya ay kailangang unawain laban sa natural na demographic expansion na ito, hindi bilang ganap na maiuugat sa patakaran ng gobyerno [3]. **2. The jobs growth figures therefore need to be understood against this natural demographic expansion, not as purely attributable to government policy [3].
**2.
Kalidad ng mga likhang trabaho:** Tandaan ng Centre for Future Work analysis na ang part-time jobs ay kumatawan sa halos kalahati ng lahat ng mga likhang trabaho simula 2013 sa ilalim ng Coalition, kung saan ang karamihan ay mga casual positions na nag-aalok ng mas mababang sahod [3]. Quality of jobs created:** The Centre for Future Work analysis notes that part-time jobs accounted for almost half of all jobs created since 2013 under the Coalition, with most being casual positions offering lower wages [3].
Ibig sabihin ang pangakong "trabaho," bagama't numerong natugunan ng naunang Abbott target, ay sumasalamin sa isang paglipat patungo sa mga precarious employment sa halip na full-time permanent positions [3]. **3. This means the "jobs" promise, while numerically met by the previous Abbott target, reflected a shift toward precarious employment rather than full-time permanent positions [3].
**3.
Pangmatagalang pattern:** Hindi ito ang unang beses na ang gayong jobs target ay nangako. Long-term pattern:** This was not the first time such a jobs target was promised.
Ginawa rin ni Abbott ang parehong pangako bago ang 2013 at sa kalaunan ay natugunan, bagama't napaalalahanan ng mga analyst na "naka-track na matugunan ang target na iyon kahit na" dahil sa normal na demographic trends [2]. **4. Abbott made the same commitment ahead of 2013 and it was eventually met, though analysts noted Australia was "on track to meet that target anyway" given normal demographic trends [2].
**4.
Totoong achievement claim ni Morrison:** Sinabi mismo ni Morrison na ang Coalition ay "nangakong isang milyong trabaho bago ang 2013 election" at tinupad ito, na inuuri ito bilang patunay ng kakayahang pang-ekonomiya [2]. Morrison's actual achievement claim:** Morrison himself argued that the Coalition had "promised one million jobs going into the 2013 election" and delivered on this, framing it as evidence of economic competence [2].
Bagama't ang natuklasan ng FOI ay walang modelling na sumusuporta sa kasalukuyang 1.25 milyong pangako, ang naunang 1 milyong target ay natugunan [2]. While the FOI finding shows no modelling supported the current 1.25 million pledge, the previous 1 million target was achieved [2].
Pagsusuri ng Kredibilidad ng Pinagmulan
Ang orihinal na pinagkukunan (SBS News) ay isang reputable mainstream broadcaster na may mataas na mga pamantayan sa editorial at hindi kilala sa partisan bias [1].
The original source (SBS News) is a reputable mainstream broadcaster with high editorial standards and is not known for partisan bias [1].
Sinusuri ng artikulo ang opisyal na mga pinagkukunan ng gobyerno (ang Treasury FOI response, Senate estimates testimony, at mga ministerial statement), kaya ito ay well-sourced. The article cites official government sources (the Treasury FOI response, Senate estimates testimony, and ministerial statements), making it well-sourced.
Ang claim ay tumutukoy din sa pahayag ni Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen, na kumakatawan sa political perspective ng Labor sa isyu. The claim also references Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen's statement, which represents Labor's political perspective on the issue.
Bagama't malinaw na kritikal si Bowen sa Coalition, ang kanyang pahayag mismo ay factual—walang modelling na ibinigay ng Treasury—bagama't ang pagtawag na "tamad at walang ingat" ay opinyon [1]. While Bowen is clearly critical of the Coalition, his statement itself is factual—Treasury did provide no modelling—though the characterization as "lazy and reckless" is opinion [1].
⚖️
Paghahambing sa Labor
**Ginawa ba ni Labor ang katulad na bagay?** Ang available na ebidensya ay nagmumungkahi na ang approach ng Labor sa election costings ay naiiba mula sa approach ng Coalition sa jobs pledge na ito: Ang mga patakaran ng Labor ay regular na kinokoste ng Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) at kung minsan ng Treasury, bagama't tradisyonal na tumututol ang Treasury sa pagbibigay ng mga formal costing para sa mga patakaran ng Opposition [4].
**Did Labor do something similar?**
The available evidence suggests Labor's approach to election costings differs from the Coalition's approach to this jobs pledge:
Labor's policies are routinely costed by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) and sometimes by Treasury, though Treasury traditionally resists providing formal costings for Opposition policies [4].
Gayunpaman, karaniwang nagbibigay ang Labor ng sariling detalyadong mga policy document at economic impact statements para sa mga malalaking pangako [4]. However, Labor typically provides its own detailed policy documents and economic impact statements for major commitments [4].
Ang pagkakaiba ay tila ang mga malalaking patakaran ng Labor ay isinasailalim sa external scrutiny at costing processes, samantalang ang 1.25 milyong jobs pledge ni Morrison ay tila inihayag nang walang anumang suportang Treasury analysis o government calculation [1]. The distinction appears to be that Labor's major policies are subjected to external scrutiny and costing processes, whereas Morrison's 1.25 million jobs pledge appears to have been announced without any supporting Treasury analysis or government calculation [1].
Tukuyin ang kritikal na puna ni Chris Bowen sa asymmetry: "Mabilis na pinapamodelo at pinapagastos ng Liberal Party ang Treasury sa mga patakaran ng Labor ngunit hindi nila pinapagastos ang kanilang sariling mga patakaran" [1]. Chris Bowen's criticism specifically targeted the asymmetry: "The Liberal Party is quick to get Treasury to model and cost Labor's policies but they couldn't be bothered getting their own policies modelled" [1].
Walang ebidensya na gumawa si Labor ng malalaking, unmodelled employment pledges nang walang suporta ng Treasury sa mga katulad na panahon. There is no evidence that Labor made large-scale, unmodelled employment pledges without Treasury support during comparable periods.
🌐
Balanseng Pananaw
**Ang perspektiba at konteksto ng gobyerno:** Ipinagtanggol ni Minister Simon Birmingham ang pangako sa pamamagitan ng pagturo sa totoong resulta: ang Coalition ay "nagpangasiwa sa paglikha ng 1.2 milyong trabaho sa nakalipas na limang-at-kalahating taon sa halip na ang isang milyong nangako" at nakamit ang "record growth sa youth employment" at "female workforce participation sa pinakamataas na antas kailanman" [1].
**The government's perspective and context:**
Minister Simon Birmingham defended the pledge by pointing to actual results: the Coalition "oversaw the creation of 1.2 million jobs over the last five-and-a-half years instead of the one million promised" and achieved "record growth in youth employment" and "female workforce participation at its highest level ever" [1].
Ito ay kumakatawan sa isang lehitimong counter-argument—maaaring ituro ng gobyerno ang ipinamalas na tagumpay sa job creation kahit na ang kasalukuyang pangako ay kulang sa modelling. This represents a legitimate counter-argument—the government could point to demonstrated job creation success even if the current pledge lacked modelling.
Gayunpaman, ang ilang mahahalagang nuances ay nagpapahirap sa depensang ito: **1. However, several important nuances complicate this defence:
**1.
Achievement vs. Achievement vs.
Policy causation:** Nagsasaad ng pananaliksik ng Centre for Future Work na ang 1 milyong trabahong nilikha sa pagitan ng 2013-2018 ay maaaring hindi pangunahing maiuugat sa patakaran ng Coalition. Policy causation:** The Centre for Future Work's research suggests the 1 million jobs created between 2013-2018 may not have been primarily attributable to Coalition policy.
Tandaan ng report na "talagang hindi kahanga-hanga ang job-creation record ng Australia simula 2013" kapag isinasaalang-alang sa paglago ng populasyon at na "dahil lamang sa isang paglusong sa part-time jobs (karamihan sa mga ito ay casual, low-wage positions) na natugunan ni Mr. The report notes that "Australia's job-creation record since 2013 has actually been unimpressive" when considered relative to population growth and that "it was only due to a surge in part-time jobs (most of them casual, low-wage positions) that Mr.
Abbott ang kanyang million-job target" [3]. Abbott's million-job target was met" [3].
Tandaan pa ng pananaliksik na "2013-18 ang ikasampung beses na lumikha ang Australia ng hindi bababa sa 1 milyong trabaho sa loob ng 5 taon. The research further notes that "2013-18 was the tenth time Australia created at least 1 million jobs in 5 years.
Ang unang beses ay 30 taon na ang nakalilipas" at na "ang rate ng employment growth simula 2013 ay mas mabagal kaysa sa pangmatagalang historical average" [3]. **2. The first time was 30 years ago" and that "the rate of employment growth since 2013 has been slower than the long-term historical average" [3].
**2.
Promise vs. standard procedures:** Ang core issue ay hindi kung maaaring likhain ang mga trabaho, kung hindi kung ang mga malalaking policy pledges ay dapat magkaroon ng suportang analysis bago ianunsyo. Promise vs. standard procedures:** The core issue is not whether jobs could be created, but whether major policy pledges should have supporting analysis before announcement.
Ang kawalan ng anumang Treasury modelling, kalkulasyon, o kahit na internal government analysis para sa gayong makabuluhang pangako ay kumakatawan sa isang hindi pangkaraniwang approach sa policy development [1]. **3. The lack of any Treasury modelling, calculation, or even internal government analysis for such a significant commitment represents an unusual approach to policy development [1].
**3.
Asymmetrical accountability:** Tama ang puntong itinampok ng claim: kung maaaring suriin ng Treasury ang mga patakaran ng Labor nang sapat para atakehin ang mga ito, dapat na hiniling na suriin ang mga malalaking pangako ng Coalition [1]. Asymmetrical accountability:** The claim highlights a legitimate double standard: if Treasury can analyse Labor's policies sufficiently to attack them, it should have been asked to analyse the Coalition's own major pledges [1].
Ang obserbasyon ni Chris Bowen sa puntong ito ay batay sa katotohanan [1]. **4. Chris Bowen's observation on this point is factually grounded [1].
**4.
Historical precedent:** Tila ang halos magkaparehong 1 milyong jobs promise ni Tony Abbott bago 2013 ay kulang din sa detalyadong prior modelling, na nagmumungkahi na maaaring ito ay sumasalamin sa isang pattern sa Coalition election strategy sa halip na isang isolated instance [2]. Historical precedent:** Tony Abbott's virtually identical 1 million jobs promise ahead of 2013 also appears to have lacked detailed prior modelling, suggesting this may reflect a pattern in Coalition election strategy rather than an isolated instance [2].
TOTOO
7.0
sa 10
Ang claim ay tumpak sa katotohanan: si Morrison ay nangako ng 1.25 milyong trabaho nang walang Treasury modelling, tulad ng kinumpirma ng FOI response at pag-amin mismo ng Treasury na ang target ay lumampas sa kanilang budget assumptions [1].
The claim is factually accurate: Morrison did promise 1.25 million jobs without Treasury modelling, as confirmed by the FOI response and Treasury's own acknowledgment that the target exceeded their budget assumptions [1].
Gayunpaman, ang framing ng claim ay nagmimintis ng mahahalagang konteksto tungkol sa kalidad ng trabaho, population growth baselines, at ang totoong pagtupad ng naunang (unmodelled) 1 milyong job pledge ni Abbott, na nagpapahirap sa simpleng naratibo ng "broken promise." However, the claim's framing omits important context about jobs quality, population growth baselines, and the actual achievement of the previous (unmodelled) 1 million job pledge by Abbott, which complicate the simple narrative of "broken promise."
Huling Iskor
7.0
SA 10
TOTOO
Ang claim ay tumpak sa katotohanan: si Morrison ay nangako ng 1.25 milyong trabaho nang walang Treasury modelling, tulad ng kinumpirma ng FOI response at pag-amin mismo ng Treasury na ang target ay lumampas sa kanilang budget assumptions [1].
The claim is factually accurate: Morrison did promise 1.25 million jobs without Treasury modelling, as confirmed by the FOI response and Treasury's own acknowledgment that the target exceeded their budget assumptions [1].
Gayunpaman, ang framing ng claim ay nagmimintis ng mahahalagang konteksto tungkol sa kalidad ng trabaho, population growth baselines, at ang totoong pagtupad ng naunang (unmodelled) 1 milyong job pledge ni Abbott, na nagpapahirap sa simpleng naratibo ng "broken promise." However, the claim's framing omits important context about jobs quality, population growth baselines, and the actual achievement of the previous (unmodelled) 1 million job pledge by Abbott, which complicate the simple narrative of "broken promise."
📚 MGA PINAGMULAN AT SANGGUNIAN (4)
-
1
sbs.com.au
Treasury has no documents or modelling that backs the government's promise to create 1.25 million jobs over five years, a freedom of information request shows.
SBS News -
2
abc.net.au
The Prime Minister is expected to use a speech in Brisbane to announce that a re-elected Coalition government will create 1.25 million jobs over the next five years.
Abc Net -
3
futurework.org.au
In the lead-up to the 2013 federal election, then-Opposition Leader Tony Abbott made a high-profile pledge that a Coalition government, if elected, would create 1 million new jobs over the next five years. Abbott was elected (although later ousted by his own party), and total employment in Australia did indeed grow by over 1 million positions between 2013 and 2018. Current Prime Minister Scott Morrison hopes that this success can resuscitate his party's flagging fortunes: he has pledged, if elected, to create even more jobs (1.25 million) over the next five years.
The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work -
4
abc.net.au
Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen releases a letter from the federal Treasury boss, distancing bureaucrats from a Coalition attack on the Opposition.
Abc Net
Pamamaraan ng Rating Scale
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Perpektong na-verify at patas ayon sa konteksto.
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