C0251 - 税收/预算 | PoliticalClaims.au

C0251

声明内容

“谎称预算已'扭亏为盈'。”

税收

原始来源： Matthew Davis

原始来源

mdavis.xyz

Documentation of Coalition government policies and claims.

Matthew Davis

✅ 事实核查

由yóu yóu 总理zǒng lǐ zǒng lǐ ScottScott Scott MorrisonMorrison Morrison 和hé hé 财政部长cái zhèng bù zhǎng cái zhèng bù zhǎng JoshJosh Josh FrydenbergFrydenberg Frydenberg 领导lǐng dǎo lǐng dǎo 的de de CoalitionCoalition Coalition 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 确实què shí què shí 在zài zài 20192019 2019 年nián nián 44 4 月yuè yuè 宣布xuān bù xuān bù 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà '' ' 重回zhòng huí zhòng huí 黑字hēi zì hēi zì '' ' ，，，预测yù cè yù cè 将jiāng jiāng 恢复huī fù huī fù 盈余yíng yú yíng yú [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

The Coalition government, led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, did announce in April 2019 that Australia was "back in black," projecting a return to surplus [1].

具体jù tǐ jù tǐ 而言ér yán ér yán ，，， FrydenbergFrydenberg Frydenberg 宣称xuān chēng xuān chēng ：：： '' ' 预算yù suàn yù suàn 已yǐ yǐ 扭亏为盈niǔ kuī wéi yíng niǔ kuī wéi yíng ，，，澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 重回zhòng huí zhòng huí 正轨zhèng guǐ zhèng guǐ '' ' ，，，预测yù cè yù cè 20192019 2019 -- - 2020 20 财年cái nián cái nián 将jiāng jiāng 实现shí xiàn shí xiàn 7171 71 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 盈余yíng yú yíng yú [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] 。。。

Specifically, Frydenberg declared: "The budget is back in black and Australia is back on track," forecasting a $7.1 billion surplus for the 2019-20 financial year [2].

这是zhè shì zhè shì 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 1212 12 年来nián lái nián lái 首次shǒu cì shǒu cì 预测yù cè yù cè 盈余yíng yú yíng yú ，，，作为zuò wéi zuò wéi 20192019 2019 年nián nián 44 4 月yuè yuè 选举xuǎn jǔ xuǎn jǔ 前qián qián 预算yù suàn yù suàn 的de de 核心内容hé xīn nèi róng hé xīn nèi róng 公布gōng bù gōng bù [[ [ 33 3 ]] ] 。。。

This was the government's first projected surplus in 12 years, announced as a centerpiece of the April 2019 election-pitch budget [3].

然而rán ér rán ér ，，，实际shí jì shí jì 结果jié guǒ jié guǒ 与yǔ yǔ 这些zhè xiē zhè xiē 预测yù cè yù cè 大相径庭dà xiāng jìng tíng dà xiāng jìng tíng 。。。

However, the actual outcome diverged dramatically from these projections.

20192019 2019 -- - 2020 20 财年cái nián cái nián 最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 以yǐ yǐ 853853 853 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 的de de 基本jī běn jī běn 现金xiàn jīn xiàn jīn 赤字chì zì chì zì （（（占zhàn zhàn GDPGDP GDP 的de de 4.3%4.3% 4.3% ）））告终gào zhōng gào zhōng —— — —— — 而ér ér 非fēi fēi 预测yù cè yù cè 的de de 盈余yíng yú yíng yú [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] 。。。

The 2019-20 financial year ended with an underlying cash deficit of $85.3 billion (4.3% of GDP)—not the projected surplus [4].

这zhè zhè 与yǔ yǔ 预测yù cè yù cè 相比xiāng bǐ xiāng bǐ 恶化è huà è huà 了le le 903903 903 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 。。。

This represented a $90.3 billion deterioration from the forecast.

政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 曾céng céng 具体jù tǐ jù tǐ 预测yù cè yù cè 未来wèi lái wèi lái 三年sān nián sān nián 累计lěi jì lěi jì 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 359359 359 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán ；；；而ér ér 实际shí jì shí jì 赤字chì zì chì zì 总额zǒng é zǒng é 为wèi wèi 25142514 2514 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán —— — —— — 差异chā yì chā yì 高达gāo dá gāo dá 28732873 2873 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán [[ [ 55 5 ]] ] 。。。

The government had specifically projected surpluses totaling $35.9 billion over the following three years; instead, actual deficits totaled $251.4 billion—a $287.3 billion variance [5].

随后suí hòu suí hòu 几年jǐ nián jǐ nián 出现chū xiàn chū xiàn 了le le 更gèng gèng 大dà dà 的de de 赤字chì zì chì zì ：：： 20202020 2020 -- - 2121 21 年nián nián 录得lù dé lù dé 13421342 1342 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 赤字chì zì chì zì （（（澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 自zì zì 二战èr zhàn èr zhàn 以来yǐ lái yǐ lái 最大zuì dà zuì dà 预算赤字yù suàn chì zì yù suàn chì zì ））） [[ [ 66 6 ]] ] 。。。

The subsequent years saw even larger deficits: 2020-21 recorded $134.2 billion deficit (Australia's largest budget deficit since World War II) [6].

到dào dào 20202020 2020 年nián nián 99 9 月yuè yuè ，，，财政部长cái zhèng bù zhǎng cái zhèng bù zhǎng FrydenbergFrydenberg Frydenberg 本人běn rén běn rén 承认chéng rèn chéng rèn 追求zhuī qiú zhuī qiú 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 是shì shì '' ' 不bù bù 现实xiàn shí xiàn shí 的de de '' ' —— — —— — 这zhè zhè 与yǔ yǔ 20192019 2019 年nián nián 预算yù suàn yù suàn 中zhōng zhōng 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò 的de de 十年shí nián shí nián 内nèi nèi 将jiāng jiāng 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 扩大kuò dà kuò dà 至zhì zhì GDPGDP GDP 的de de 1%1% 1% 形成xíng chéng xíng chéng 鲜明对比xiān míng duì bǐ xiān míng duì bǐ [[ [ 77 7 ]] ] 。。。

By September 2020, Treasurer Frydenberg himself acknowledged that targeting surpluses would be "unrealistic"—a striking reversal from the 2019 budget's promise of expanding surpluses toward 1% of GDP within a decade [7].

缺失背景

这一zhè yī zhè yī claimclaim claim 需要xū yào xū yào 谨慎jǐn shèn jǐn shèn 解读jiě dú jiě dú ，，，因为yīn wèi yīn wèi 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 的de de 声明shēng míng shēng míng 在技术上zài jì shù shàng zài jì shù shàng 是shì shì 关于guān yú guān yú ** * 预测yù cè yù cè ** * 盈余yíng yú yíng yú ，，，而ér ér 非fēi fēi 已经yǐ jīng yǐ jīng 实现shí xiàn shí xiàn 的de de 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 。。。

The claim requires careful interpretation because the government's statement was technically about a *forecast* surplus, not an already-achieved surplus.

20192019 2019 -- - 2020 20 年nián nián 预算yù suàn yù suàn 确实què shí què shí 预测yù cè yù cè 恢复huī fù huī fù 盈余yíng yú yíng yú ；；；并未bìng wèi bìng wèi 声称shēng chēng shēng chēng 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 已经yǐ jīng yǐ jīng 实现shí xiàn shí xiàn 。。。

The 2019-20 budget did project a return to surplus; it did not claim one had already occurred.

这一zhè yī zhè yī 区别qū bié qū bié 对duì duì 准确性zhǔn què xìng zhǔn què xìng 至关重要zhì guān zhòng yào zhì guān zhòng yào [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

This distinction matters for accuracy [1].

然而rán ér rán ér ，，，几个jǐ gè jǐ gè 背景bèi jǐng bèi jǐng 因素yīn sù yīn sù 使shǐ shǐ 情况qíng kuàng qíng kuàng 变得复杂biàn dé fù zá biàn dé fù zá ：：：

However, several contextual issues complicate the picture: **COVID-19 Impact:** The promised 2019-20 surplus became impossible when COVID-19 struck.

** * ** * COVIDCOVID COVID -- - 1919 19 影响yǐng xiǎng yǐng xiǎng ：：： ** * ** * 当dāng dāng COVIDCOVID COVID -- - 1919 19 来袭lái xí lái xí 时shí shí ，，，承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò 的de de 20192019 2019 -- - 2020 20 年nián nián 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 变得biàn dé biàn dé 不bù bù 可能kě néng kě néng 实现shí xiàn shí xiàn 。。。

The government's emergency fiscal support—JobKeeper, Coronavirus Supplement, and CashFlow boost—totaled $57.7 billion in additional cash payments, while revenue fell $33.1 billion below estimates [4].

政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 的de de 紧急jǐn jí jǐn jí 财政cái zhèng cái zhèng 支持zhī chí zhī chí —— — —— — JobKeeperJobKeeper JobKeeper 、、、冠状病毒guān zhuàng bìng dú guān zhuàng bìng dú 补助bǔ zhù bǔ zhù 和hé hé 现金流xiàn jīn liú xiàn jīn liú 提升tí shēng tí shēng —— — —— — 总计zǒng jì zǒng jì 577577 577 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 的de de 额外é wài é wài 现金xiàn jīn xiàn jīn 支出zhī chū zhī chū ，，，同时tóng shí tóng shí 收入shōu rù shōu rù 比bǐ bǐ 预期yù qī yù qī 低dī dī 331331 331 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] 。。。

This was an unforeseeable crisis that justified the deficit spending, making the original projection mathematically obsolete through no fault of forecasting methodology. **Pre-COVID Forecast Accuracy:** Even before COVID-19's impact, the 2019 projections were questioned.

这是zhè shì zhè shì 不可bù kě bù kě 预见yù jiàn yù jiàn 的de de 危机wēi jī wēi jī ，，，证明zhèng míng zhèng míng 了le le 赤字chì zì chì zì 支出zhī chū zhī chū 的de de 必要性bì yào xìng bì yào xìng ，，，使原shǐ yuán shǐ yuán 预测yù cè yù cè 在zài zài 数学shù xué shù xué 上shàng shàng 失效shī xiào shī xiào ，，，这zhè zhè 并非bìng fēi bìng fēi 预测yù cè yù cè 方法fāng fǎ fāng fǎ 的de de 过错guò cuò guò cuò 。。。

The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) of December 2019 (pre-COVID) had already revised the 2019-20 projection to a smaller surplus of approximately $8 billion—suggesting the initial April forecast was optimistic [4].

** * ** * COVIDCOVID COVID 前qián qián 的de de 预测yù cè yù cè 准确性zhǔn què xìng zhǔn què xìng ：：： ** * ** * 即使jí shǐ jí shǐ 在zài zài COVIDCOVID COVID -- - 1919 19 影响yǐng xiǎng yǐng xiǎng 之前zhī qián zhī qián ，，， 20192019 2019 年nián nián 的de de 预测yù cè yù cè 就jiù jiù 已yǐ yǐ 受到shòu dào shòu dào 质疑zhì yí zhì yí 。。。

This indicates the issue wasn't solely COVID-related. **Election Timing Context:** The budget was delivered just before the May 2019 federal election and featured substantial personal income tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

20192019 2019 年nián nián 1212 12 月yuè yuè （（（ COVIDCOVID COVID 前qián qián ）））的de de 年nián nián 中zhōng zhōng 经济jīng jì jīng jì 和hé hé 财政cái zhèng cái zhèng 展望zhǎn wàng zhǎn wàng （（（ MYEFOMYEFO MYEFO ）））已yǐ yǐ 将jiāng jiāng 20192019 2019 -- - 2020 20 年nián nián 的de de 预测yù cè yù cè 修正xiū zhèng xiū zhèng 为wèi wèi 约yuē yuē 8080 80 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 的de de 较jiào jiào 小xiǎo xiǎo 盈余yíng yú yíng yú —— — —— — 表明biǎo míng biǎo míng 44 4 月yuè yuè 的de de 初始chū shǐ chū shǐ 预测yù cè yù cè 过于guò yú guò yú 乐观lè guān lè guān [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] 。。。

This timing raised legitimate questions about whether projections were optimized to support the Coalition's electoral pitch rather than based on conservative economic assumptions [3]. **Historical Comparison:** The Labor government had previously delivered actual budget surpluses in earlier years (most recently in 2007-08), providing a contrast with the Coalition's unfulfilled 2019 promise [8].

这zhè zhè 说明shuō míng shuō míng 问题wèn tí wèn tí 并非bìng fēi bìng fēi solelysolely solely 与yǔ yǔ COVIDCOVID COVID 相关xiāng guān xiāng guān 。。。

** * ** * 选举xuǎn jǔ xuǎn jǔ 时机shí jī shí jī 背景bèi jǐng bèi jǐng ：：： ** * ** * 预算yù suàn yù suàn 在zài zài 20192019 2019 年nián nián 55 5 月yuè yuè 联邦lián bāng lián bāng 选举xuǎn jǔ xuǎn jǔ 前qián qián 发布fā bù fā bù ，，，并bìng bìng 包含bāo hán bāo hán 大量dà liàng dà liàng 个人所得税gè rén suǒ dé shuì gè rén suǒ dé shuì 减免jiǎn miǎn jiǎn miǎn 和hé hé 基础设施jī chǔ shè shī jī chǔ shè shī 支出zhī chū zhī chū 。。。

这一zhè yī zhè yī 时机shí jī shí jī 引发yǐn fā yǐn fā 了le le 合理hé lǐ hé lǐ 质疑zhì yí zhì yí ，，，即jí jí 预测yù cè yù cè 是否shì fǒu shì fǒu 被bèi bèi 优化yōu huà yōu huà 以yǐ yǐ 支持zhī chí zhī chí CoalitionCoalition Coalition 的de de 选举xuǎn jǔ xuǎn jǔ 宣传xuān chuán xuān chuán ，，，而ér ér 非fēi fēi 基于jī yú jī yú 保守bǎo shǒu bǎo shǒu 的de de 经济jīng jì jīng jì 假设jiǎ shè jiǎ shè [[ [ 33 3 ]] ] 。。。

** * ** * 历史lì shǐ lì shǐ 比较bǐ jiào bǐ jiào ：：： ** * ** * 工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 此前cǐ qián cǐ qián 在zài zài 早些zǎo xiē zǎo xiē 年nián nián 曾céng céng 实现shí xiàn shí xiàn 过guò guò 实际shí jì shí jì 预算yù suàn yù suàn 盈余yíng yú yíng yú （（（最近zuì jìn zuì jìn 一次yī cì yī cì 在zài zài 20072007 2007 -- - 0808 08 年nián nián ））），，，这zhè zhè 与yǔ yǔ CoalitionCoalition Coalition 未wèi wèi 兑现duì xiàn duì xiàn 的de de 20192019 2019 年nián nián 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò 形成xíng chéng xíng chéng 对比duì bǐ duì bǐ [[ [ 88 8 ]] ] 。。。

来源可信度评估

原始yuán shǐ yuán shǐ 来源lái yuán lái yuán （（（ thenewdailythenewdaily thenewdaily .. . comcom com .. . auau au ）））是shì shì 一家yī jiā yī jiā 主流zhǔ liú zhǔ liú 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 新闻媒体xīn wén méi tǐ xīn wén méi tǐ ，，，具有jù yǒu jù yǒu 中zhōng zhōng 左翼zuǒ yì zuǒ yì 编辑biān jí biān jí 立场lì chǎng lì chǎng ，，，但dàn dàn 保持bǎo chí bǎo chí 专业zhuān yè zhuān yè 新闻xīn wén xīn wén 标准biāo zhǔn biāo zhǔn 。。。

The original source provided (thenewdaily.com.au) is a mainstream Australian news outlet with a center-left editorial perspective, though it maintains professional journalism standards.

分析fēn xī fēn xī 应yīng yīng 主要zhǔ yào zhǔ yào 依赖yī lài yī lài 官方guān fāng guān fāng 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 来源lái yuán lái yuán 而ér ér 非fēi fēi 原始yuán shǐ yuán shǐ 来源lái yuán lái yuán 的de de 框架kuāng jià kuāng jià 。。。

The analysis should rely primarily on official government sources rather than the original source's framing.

查阅chá yuè chá yuè 的de de 主要zhǔ yào zhǔ yào 来源lái yuán lái yuán 包括bāo kuò bāo kuò ：：：财政部cái zhèng bù cái zhèng bù 官方guān fāng guān fāng 预算yù suàn yù suàn 结果jié guǒ jié guǒ 文件wén jiàn wén jiàn 、、、澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 统计局tǒng jì jú tǒng jì jú （（（ ABSABS ABS ）））政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 财政cái zhèng cái zhèng 统计tǒng jì tǒng jì 、、、议会yì huì yì huì 记录jì lù jì lù 和hé hé 主流zhǔ liú zhǔ liú 新闻媒体xīn wén méi tǐ xīn wén méi tǐ （（（ ABCABC ABC 新闻xīn wén xīn wén 、、、 TheThe The ConversationConversation Conversation 、、、 GuardianGuardian Guardian AustraliaAustralia Australia ）））。。。

Primary sources consulted include: Treasury official budget outcome documents, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) government finance statistics, parliamentary records, and mainstream news outlets (ABC News, The Conversation, Guardian Australia).

这些zhè xiē zhè xiē 是shì shì 预算yù suàn yù suàn 数字shù zì shù zì 和hé hé 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 声明shēng míng shēng míng 的de de 权威quán wēi quán wēi 来源lái yuán lái yuán [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] [[ [ 55 5 ]] ] [[ [ 66 6 ]] ] 。。。

These are authoritative for budget figures and government statements [1][4][5][6].

⚖️

工党对比

工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng 也yě yě 曾céng céng 做出zuò chū zuò chū 类似lèi sì lèi sì 的de de 赤字chì zì chì zì // / 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 预测yù cè yù cè ，，，准确性zhǔn què xìng zhǔn què xìng 各异gè yì gè yì 。。。

**Did Labor do something similar?** Search conducted: "Labor government budget surplus promises forecasts accuracy Australian budgets" Labor has made similar deficit/surplus projections with varying accuracy.

然而rán ér rán ér ，，，紧邻jǐn lín jǐn lín CoalitionCoalition Coalition 之前zhī qián zhī qián 的de de 工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ （（（ 20072007 2007 -- - 20132013 2013 年nián nián ，，， RuddRudd Rudd // / GillardGillard Gillard // / RuddRudd Rudd 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ ）））继承jì chéng jì chéng 了le le 强劲qiáng jìng qiáng jìng 的de de 财政状况cái zhèng zhuàng kuàng cái zhèng zhuàng kuàng ，，，最初zuì chū zuì chū 实现shí xiàn shí xiàn 了le le 盈余yíng yú yíng yú ，，，随后suí hòu suí hòu 全球quán qiú quán qiú 金融危机jīn róng wēi jī jīn róng wēi jī 迫使pò shǐ pò shǐ 出现chū xiàn chū xiàn 重大zhòng dà zhòng dà 赤字chì zì chì zì [[ [ 99 9 ]] ] 。。。

However, the Labor government that immediately preceded the Coalition (2007-2013, Rudd/Gillard/Rudd governments) inherited a strong fiscal position and initially delivered surpluses, before the Global Financial Crisis forced significant deficits [9].

当dāng dāng CoalitionCoalition Coalition 于yú yú 20132013 2013 年nián nián 重新chóng xīn chóng xīn 执政zhí zhèng zhí zhèng 时shí shí ，，，他们tā men tā men 继承jì chéng jì chéng 了le le 赤字chì zì chì zì 局面jú miàn jú miàn ，，，并bìng bìng 逐步zhú bù zhú bù 改善gǎi shàn gǎi shàn 财政状况cái zhèng zhuàng kuàng cái zhèng zhuàng kuàng ，，，最终zuì zhōng zuì zhōng 在zài zài 20192019 2019 年nián nián 预测yù cè yù cè 恢复huī fù huī fù 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 。。。

When the Coalition returned to power in 2013, they inherited a deficit situation and gradually improved the fiscal position, eventually forecasting (in 2019) a return to surplus.

关键guān jiàn guān jiàn 区别qū bié qū bié 在于zài yú zài yú ：：：工党gōng dǎng gōng dǎng 随后suí hòu suí hòu 的de de 预测yù cè yù cè （（（ 20222022 2022 -- - 20252025 2025 年nián nián ）））包含bāo hán bāo hán 了le le 更gèng gèng 保守bǎo shǒu bǎo shǒu 的de de 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 假设jiǎ shè jiǎ shè ，，，部分bù fèn bù fèn 借鉴jiè jiàn jiè jiàn 了le le CoalitionCoalition Coalition 的de de 经验jīng yàn jīng yàn —— — —— — 即使jí shǐ jí shǐ 是shì shì 适度shì dù shì dù 的de de 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 目标mù biāo mù biāo 也yě yě 可能kě néng kě néng 被bèi bèi 证明zhèng míng zhèng míng 不切实际bù qiē shí jì bù qiē shí jì [[ [ 1010 10 ]] ] 。。。

The key difference: Labor's subsequent projections (2022-2025) included more conservative surplus assumptions, partly informed by the Coalition's experience that even modest surplus targets could prove unrealistic [10].

两大liǎng dà liǎng dà 主要zhǔ yào zhǔ yào 政党zhèng dǎng zhèng dǎng 都dōu dōu 遇到yù dào yù dào 过guò guò 预测yù cè yù cè 准确性zhǔn què xìng zhǔn què xìng 的de de 挑战tiǎo zhàn tiǎo zhàn 。。。

Both major parties have experienced forecast accuracy challenges.

然而rán ér rán ér ，，， CoalitionCoalition Coalition 的de de 20192019 2019 年nián nián 预测yù cè yù cè 被bèi bèi 证明zhèng míng zhèng míng 是shì shì 独一无二dú yī wú èr dú yī wú èr 的de de 乐观lè guān lè guān ，，，表明biǎo míng biǎo míng 预测yù cè yù cè 方法fāng fǎ fāng fǎ 或huò huò 政治zhèng zhì zhèng zhì 动机dòng jī dòng jī 方面fāng miàn fāng miàn 存在cún zài cún zài 问题wèn tí wèn tí ，，，旨在zhǐ zài zhǐ zài 呈现chéng xiàn chéng xiàn 选举xuǎn jǔ xuǎn jǔ 前qián qián 的de de 乐观lè guān lè guān 情景qíng jǐng qíng jǐng 。。。

However, the Coalition's 2019 projection proved uniquely optimistic, suggesting issues with either forecasting methodology or political motivation to present rosy pre-election scenarios.

🌐

平衡视角

** * ** * 对duì duì CoalitionCoalition Coalition '' ' 扭亏为盈niǔ kuī wéi yíng niǔ kuī wéi yíng '' ' 声明shēng míng shēng míng 的de de 批评pī píng pī píng ：：： ** * ** *

**Criticisms of the Coalition's "Back in Black" Claims:** The government's 2019 projections were substantially inaccurate.

政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 20192019 2019 年nián nián 的de de 预测yù cè yù cè 严重yán zhòng yán zhòng 失准shī zhǔn shī zhǔn 。。。

Critics argue this demonstrates either: (1) poor economic forecasting, (2) political optimization of projections to support election prospects, or (3) both [11].

批评者pī píng zhě pī píng zhě 认为rèn wéi rèn wéi 这zhè zhè 表明biǎo míng biǎo míng 存在cún zài cún zài 以下yǐ xià yǐ xià 问题wèn tí wèn tí ：：：（（（ 11 1 ）））糟糕zāo gāo zāo gāo 的de de 经济jīng jì jīng jì 预测yù cè yù cè ，，，（（（ 22 2 ）））为wèi wèi 支持zhī chí zhī chí 选举xuǎn jǔ xuǎn jǔ 前景qián jǐng qián jǐng 而ér ér 进行jìn xíng jìn xíng 的de de 政治化zhèng zhì huà zhèng zhì huà 预测yù cè yù cè 优化yōu huà yōu huà ，，，或huò huò （（（ 33 3 ）））两者liǎng zhě liǎng zhě 兼而有之jiān ér yǒu zhī jiān ér yǒu zhī [[ [ 1111 11 ]] ] 。。。

The magnitude of revision—from $35.9 billion in projected surpluses to $251.4 billion in actual deficits over three years—was massive and raised questions about the rigor of Treasury modeling [5].

修订xiū dìng xiū dìng 幅度fú dù fú dù —— — —— — 从cóng cóng 预测yù cè yù cè 三年sān nián sān nián 累计lěi jì lěi jì 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 359359 359 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 到dào dào 实际shí jì shí jì 赤字chì zì chì zì 25142514 2514 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán —— — —— — 规模guī mó guī mó 巨大jù dà jù dà ，，，引发yǐn fā yǐn fā 了le le 对duì duì 财政部cái zhèng bù cái zhèng bù 建模jiàn mó jiàn mó 严谨性yán jǐn xìng yán jǐn xìng 的de de 质疑zhì yí zhì yí [[ [ 55 5 ]] ] 。。。

The fact that Treasurer Frydenberg abandoned the surplus goal as "unrealistic" within 18 months suggests the original commitment was politically rather than economically grounded [7]. **Coalition's Perspective and Context:** The government could argue that: (1) The original projections were based on economic conditions in April 2019, which were reasonable at that time [2]. (2) COVID-19 created an unforeseeable emergency that made deficit spending both necessary and widely accepted across the political spectrum [4]. (3) The forecasting errors that became apparent even in MYEFO December 2019 reflected genuine economic uncertainty, not intentional deception [4].

财政部长cái zhèng bù zhǎng cái zhèng bù zhǎng FrydenbergFrydenberg Frydenberg 在zài zài 1818 18 个gè gè 月yuè yuè 内nèi nèi 就jiù jiù 放弃fàng qì fàng qì 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 目标mù biāo mù biāo ，，，称其为chēng qí wèi chēng qí wèi '' ' 不bù bù 现实xiàn shí xiàn shí 的de de '' ' ，，，这zhè zhè 表明biǎo míng biǎo míng 最初zuì chū zuì chū 的de de 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò 是shì shì 基于jī yú jī yú 政治zhèng zhì zhèng zhì 而ér ér 非经济fēi jīng jì fēi jīng jì 考量kǎo liáng kǎo liáng [[ [ 77 7 ]] ] 。。。

The Coalition maintained that emergency spending during COVID was appropriate fiscal policy and that long-term structural improvements were still occurring despite cyclical deficits [6]. **Independent Analysis:** The Conversation and other independent observers noted that: (1) The 2019 budget contained several optimistic assumptions even before COVID-19 [3]. (2) Delivering the budget just before an election created incentives to present rosy scenarios [3]. (3) Even adjusted for COVID, the initial forecasting errors suggested overly optimistic economic assumptions [5].

** * ** * CoalitionCoalition Coalition 的de de 立场lì chǎng lì chǎng 和hé hé 背景bèi jǐng bèi jǐng ：：： ** * ** *

This appears to be a systemic issue across Australian governments—tendency toward optimistic forecasts during election cycles—rather than unique to the Coalition [12]. **Key Context:** The 2019 budget projections were both technically a forecast (not a false claim of current surplus) AND substantively inaccurate even before COVID-19 occurred.

政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 可以kě yǐ kě yǐ 辩称biàn chēng biàn chēng ：：：（（（ 11 1 ）））原始yuán shǐ yuán shǐ 预测yù cè yù cè 基于jī yú jī yú 20192019 2019 年nián nián 44 4 月yuè yuè 的de de 经济jīng jì jīng jì 状况zhuàng kuàng zhuàng kuàng ，，，在zài zài 当时dāng shí dāng shí 是shì shì 合理hé lǐ hé lǐ 的de de [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] 。。。

Whether this constitutes "lying" depends on intent: if the government knowingly used inflated projections for electoral advantage, it approaches deception; if the projections reflected genuinely optimistic but erroneous economic assumptions, it reflects poor forecasting rather than dishonesty.

（（（ 22 2 ））） COVIDCOVID COVID -- - 1919 19 造成zào chéng zào chéng 了le le 不可bù kě bù kě 预见yù jiàn yù jiàn 的de de 紧急情况jǐn jí qíng kuàng jǐn jí qíng kuàng ，，，使shǐ shǐ 赤字chì zì chì zì 支出zhī chū zhī chū 成为chéng wéi chéng wéi 必要bì yào bì yào ，，，且qiě qiě 在zài zài 政治zhèng zhì zhèng zhì 光谱guāng pǔ guāng pǔ 上shàng shàng 获得huò dé huò dé 广泛guǎng fàn guǎng fàn 接受jiē shòu jiē shòu [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] 。。。

The evidence suggests the truth lies somewhere in between.

（（（ 33 3 ）））甚至shèn zhì shèn zhì 在zài zài 20192019 2019 年nián nián 1212 12 月yuè yuè MYEFOMYEFO MYEFO 中zhōng zhōng 就jiù jiù 显现xiǎn xiàn xiǎn xiàn 的de de 预测yù cè yù cè 误差wù chā wù chā 反映fǎn yìng fǎn yìng 了le le 真正zhēn zhèng zhēn zhèng 的de de 经济jīng jì jīng jì 不确定性bù què dìng xìng bù què dìng xìng ，，，而ér ér 非故意fēi gù yì fēi gù yì 欺骗qī piàn qī piàn [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] 。。。

CoalitionCoalition Coalition 坚持jiān chí jiān chí 认为rèn wéi rèn wéi COVIDCOVID COVID 期间qī jiān qī jiān 的de de 紧急jǐn jí jǐn jí 支出zhī chū zhī chū 是shì shì 适当shì dàng shì dàng 的de de 财政政策cái zhèng zhèng cè cái zhèng zhèng cè ，，，尽管jǐn guǎn jǐn guǎn 存在cún zài cún zài 周期性zhōu qī xìng zhōu qī xìng 赤字chì zì chì zì ，，，但dàn dàn 长期cháng qī cháng qī 结构性jié gòu xìng jié gòu xìng 改善gǎi shàn gǎi shàn 仍réng réng 在zài zài 发生fā shēng fā shēng [[ [ 66 6 ]] ] 。。。

** * ** * 独立dú lì dú lì 分析fēn xī fēn xī ：：： ** * ** *

TheThe The ConversationConversation Conversation 和hé hé 其他qí tā qí tā 独立dú lì dú lì 观察guān chá guān chá 人士rén shì rén shì 指出zhǐ chū zhǐ chū ：：：（（（ 11 1 ）））即使jí shǐ jí shǐ 在zài zài COVIDCOVID COVID -- - 1919 19 之前zhī qián zhī qián ，，， 20192019 2019 年nián nián 预算yù suàn yù suàn 就jiù jiù 包含bāo hán bāo hán 若干ruò gān ruò gān 乐观lè guān lè guān 假设jiǎ shè jiǎ shè [[ [ 33 3 ]] ] 。。。

（（（ 22 2 ）））在zài zài 选举xuǎn jǔ xuǎn jǔ 前qián qián 发布fā bù fā bù 预算yù suàn yù suàn 创造chuàng zào chuàng zào 了le le 呈现chéng xiàn chéng xiàn 乐观lè guān lè guān 情景qíng jǐng qíng jǐng 的de de 动机dòng jī dòng jī [[ [ 33 3 ]] ] 。。。

（（（ 33 3 ）））即使jí shǐ jí shǐ 调整tiáo zhěng tiáo zhěng 了le le COVIDCOVID COVID 因素yīn sù yīn sù ，，，初始chū shǐ chū shǐ 预测yù cè yù cè 误差wù chā wù chā 表明biǎo míng biǎo míng 经济jīng jì jīng jì 假设jiǎ shè jiǎ shè 过于guò yú guò yú 乐观lè guān lè guān [[ [ 55 5 ]] ] 。。。

这zhè zhè 似乎sì hū sì hū 是shì shì 澳大利亚政府ào dà lì yà zhèng fǔ ào dà lì yà zhèng fǔ 系统性xì tǒng xìng xì tǒng xìng 问题wèn tí wèn tí —— — —— — 在zài zài 选举xuǎn jǔ xuǎn jǔ 周期zhōu qī zhōu qī 倾向qīng xiàng qīng xiàng 于yú yú 乐观lè guān lè guān 预测yù cè yù cè —— — —— — 而ér ér 非fēi fēi CoalitionCoalition Coalition 独有dú yǒu dú yǒu [[ [ 1212 12 ]] ] 。。。

** * ** * 关键guān jiàn guān jiàn 背景bèi jǐng bèi jǐng ：：： ** * ** * 20192019 2019 年nián nián 预算yù suàn yù suàn 预测yù cè yù cè 在技术上zài jì shù shàng zài jì shù shàng 是shì shì 预测yù cè yù cè （（（而ér ér 非fēi fēi 虚假xū jiǎ xū jiǎ 声称shēng chēng shēng chēng 当前dāng qián dāng qián 盈余yíng yú yíng yú ））），，，且qiě qiě 在zài zài COVIDCOVID COVID -- - 1919 19 发生fā shēng fā shēng 之前zhī qián zhī qián 就jiù jiù 已经yǐ jīng yǐ jīng 实质shí zhì shí zhì 失准shī zhǔn shī zhǔn 。。。

这zhè zhè 是否shì fǒu shì fǒu 构成gòu chéng gòu chéng '' ' 撒谎sā huǎng sā huǎng '' ' 取决于qǔ jué yú qǔ jué yú 意图yì tú yì tú ：：：如果rú guǒ rú guǒ 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 明知故犯míng zhī gù fàn míng zhī gù fàn 地dì dì 使用shǐ yòng shǐ yòng 夸大kuā dà kuā dà 预测yù cè yù cè 以yǐ yǐ 获取huò qǔ huò qǔ 选举xuǎn jǔ xuǎn jǔ 优势yōu shì yōu shì ，，，则zé zé 接近jiē jìn jiē jìn 欺骗qī piàn qī piàn ；；；如果rú guǒ rú guǒ 预测yù cè yù cè 反映fǎn yìng fǎn yìng 了le le 真诚zhēn chéng zhēn chéng 但dàn dàn 错误cuò wù cuò wù 的de de 经济jīng jì jīng jì 假设jiǎ shè jiǎ shè ，，，则zé zé 反映fǎn yìng fǎn yìng 的de de 是shì shì 糟糕zāo gāo zāo gāo 预测yù cè yù cè 而ér ér 非fēi fēi 不诚实bù chéng shí bù chéng shí 。。。

证据zhèng jù zhèng jù 表明biǎo míng biǎo míng 真相zhēn xiàng zhēn xiàng 介于jiè yú jiè yú 两者之间liǎng zhě zhī jiān liǎng zhě zhī jiān 。。。

部分属实

6.5

/ 10

CoalitionCoalition Coalition 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 确实què shí què shí 在zài zài 20192019 2019 年nián nián 44 4 月yuè yuè 预算yù suàn yù suàn 中zhōng zhōng 宣布xuān bù xuān bù 了le le 恢复huī fù huī fù 盈余yíng yú yíng yú ，，，这使zhè shǐ zhè shǐ 该gāi gāi claimclaim claim 作为zuò wéi zuò wéi 对duì duì 已yǐ yǐ 宣布xuān bù xuān bù 内容nèi róng nèi róng 的de de 陈述chén shù chén shù 在技术上zài jì shù shàng zài jì shù shàng 是shì shì 准确zhǔn què zhǔn què 的de de [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] 。。。

The Coalition government did announce a return to surplus in the April 2019 budget, making the claim technically accurate as a statement of what was announced [1][2].

然而rán ér rán ér ，，，预测yù cè yù cè 被bèi bèi 证明zhèng míng zhèng míng 严重yán zhòng yán zhòng 失准shī zhǔn shī zhǔn 。。。

However, the projections proved dramatically inaccurate.

20192019 2019 -- - 2020 20 财年cái nián cái nián 产生chǎn shēng chǎn shēng 了le le 853853 853 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 赤字chì zì chì zì ，，，而ér ér 非fēi fēi 预测yù cè yù cè 的de de 7171 71 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 盈余yíng yú yíng yú [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] ，，，随后suí hòu suí hòu 几年jǐ nián jǐ nián 赤字chì zì chì zì 更大gèng dà gèng dà 。。。

The 2019-20 financial year produced an $85.3 billion deficit instead of the projected $7.1 billion surplus [4], and subsequent years saw even larger deficits.

财政部cái zhèng bù cái zhèng bù 对duì duì 三年sān nián sān nián 累计lěi jì lěi jì 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 359359 359 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 的de de 预测yù cè yù cè 变成biàn chéng biàn chéng 了le le 实际shí jì shí jì 赤字chì zì chì zì 25142514 2514 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán [[ [ 55 5 ]] ] 。。。

Treasury projections for three-year surpluses of $35.9 billion became actual deficits of $251.4 billion [5].

虽然suī rán suī rán COVIDCOVID COVID -- - 1919 19 造成zào chéng zào chéng 了le le 不可避免bù kě bì miǎn bù kě bì miǎn 的de de 财政cái zhèng cái zhèng 压力yā lì yā lì ，，，但dàn dàn 初始chū shǐ chū shǐ 预测yù cè yù cè 即使jí shǐ jí shǐ 在zài zài 疫情yì qíng yì qíng 前qián qián 也yě yě 值得zhí de zhí de 质疑zhì yí zhì yí ，，， 20192019 2019 年nián nián 1212 12 月yuè yuè 的de de 修正xiū zhèng xiū zhèng 就是jiù shì jiù shì 明证míng zhèng míng zhèng [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] 。。。

While COVID-19 provided unavoidable fiscal pressures, the initial projections were questionable even before the pandemic, as evidenced by December 2019 revisions [4].

将jiāng jiāng 其qí qí 定性dìng xìng dìng xìng 为wèi wèi '' ' 撒谎sā huǎng sā huǎng '' ' 可能kě néng kě néng 夸大kuā dà kuā dà 了le le 事实shì shí shì shí —— — —— — 如果rú guǒ rú guǒ 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 确实què shí què shí 相信xiāng xìn xiāng xìn 这些zhè xiē zhè xiē 乐观lè guān lè guān 预测yù cè yù cè 的话de huà de huà —— — —— — 但dàn dàn 考虑kǎo lǜ kǎo lǜ 到dào dào 严重yán zhòng yán zhòng 的de de 失准shī zhǔn shī zhǔn 和hé hé 选举xuǎn jǔ xuǎn jǔ 周期zhōu qī zhōu qī 宣布xuān bù xuān bù 的de de 时机shí jī shí jī ，，， '' ' 误导wù dǎo wù dǎo '' ' 是shì shì 恰当qià dàng qià dàng 的de de 定性dìng xìng dìng xìng [[ [ 33 3 ]] ] [[ [ 1111 11 ]] ] 。。。

Characterizing this as "lying" may overstate the case if the government genuinely believed the optimistic projections, but "misleading" is justified given the dramatic inaccuracy and the election-cycle timing of the announcement [3][11].

最终评分

6.5