The Claim
“Promised the creation of 1.25 million jobs without doing any calculation or modelling to arrive at that number.”
Original Sources Provided
✅ FACTUAL VERIFICATION
The claim is factually accurate regarding the lack of Treasury modelling. In March 2019, a Freedom of Information request by Labor revealed that Treasury held "no documents within the scope of your request" regarding modelling or calculations to support Prime Minister Scott Morrison's pledge to create 1.25 million jobs over five years [1].
Morrison made this commitment in January 2019 as part of his pre-election platform, echoing then-Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's earlier pledge to create 1 million jobs ahead of the 2013 election [2]. The 1.25 million figure represented an increase on Abbott's original commitment [2].
At Senate estimates, Treasury officials acknowledged that the government's jobs target "would require annual jobs growth of 1.9 per cent, which is higher than the 1.5 per cent or 1.75 per cent assumed in current budget figures" [1]. This discrepancy between the pledge and Treasury's own budget assumptions is significant.
The government's own Treasury department, when asked for documentation supporting the pledge, could produce nothing [1]. Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen characterized this as "lazy and reckless," noting that "The Liberal Party is quick to get Treasury to model and cost Labor's policies but they couldn't be bothered getting their own policies modelled" [1].
Missing Context
However, the claim omits several important contextual elements:
1. Jobs growth as background baseline: Australia's population and workforce are growing continuously. Australia's working-age population exceeds 20 million and is growing rapidly, meaning the labour market must create more than 1 million new jobs every five years just to keep pace with population growth [3]. The jobs growth figures therefore need to be understood against this natural demographic expansion, not as purely attributable to government policy [3].
2. Quality of jobs created: The Centre for Future Work analysis notes that part-time jobs accounted for almost half of all jobs created since 2013 under the Coalition, with most being casual positions offering lower wages [3]. This means the "jobs" promise, while numerically met by the previous Abbott target, reflected a shift toward precarious employment rather than full-time permanent positions [3].
3. Long-term pattern: This was not the first time such a jobs target was promised. Abbott made the same commitment ahead of 2013 and it was eventually met, though analysts noted Australia was "on track to meet that target anyway" given normal demographic trends [2].
4. Morrison's actual achievement claim: Morrison himself argued that the Coalition had "promised one million jobs going into the 2013 election" and delivered on this, framing it as evidence of economic competence [2]. While the FOI finding shows no modelling supported the current 1.25 million pledge, the previous 1 million target was achieved [2].
Source Credibility Assessment
The original source (SBS News) is a reputable mainstream broadcaster with high editorial standards and is not known for partisan bias [1]. The article cites official government sources (the Treasury FOI response, Senate estimates testimony, and ministerial statements), making it well-sourced.
The claim also references Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen's statement, which represents Labor's political perspective on the issue. While Bowen is clearly critical of the Coalition, his statement itself is factual—Treasury did provide no modelling—though the characterization as "lazy and reckless" is opinion [1].
Labor Comparison
Did Labor do something similar?
The available evidence suggests Labor's approach to election costings differs from the Coalition's approach to this jobs pledge:
Labor's policies are routinely costed by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) and sometimes by Treasury, though Treasury traditionally resists providing formal costings for Opposition policies [4]. However, Labor typically provides its own detailed policy documents and economic impact statements for major commitments [4].
The distinction appears to be that Labor's major policies are subjected to external scrutiny and costing processes, whereas Morrison's 1.25 million jobs pledge appears to have been announced without any supporting Treasury analysis or government calculation [1]. Chris Bowen's criticism specifically targeted the asymmetry: "The Liberal Party is quick to get Treasury to model and cost Labor's policies but they couldn't be bothered getting their own policies modelled" [1].
There is no evidence that Labor made large-scale, unmodelled employment pledges without Treasury support during comparable periods.
Balanced Perspective
The government's perspective and context:
Minister Simon Birmingham defended the pledge by pointing to actual results: the Coalition "oversaw the creation of 1.2 million jobs over the last five-and-a-half years instead of the one million promised" and achieved "record growth in youth employment" and "female workforce participation at its highest level ever" [1]. This represents a legitimate counter-argument—the government could point to demonstrated job creation success even if the current pledge lacked modelling.
However, several important nuances complicate this defence:
1. Achievement vs. Policy causation: The Centre for Future Work's research suggests the 1 million jobs created between 2013-2018 may not have been primarily attributable to Coalition policy. The report notes that "Australia's job-creation record since 2013 has actually been unimpressive" when considered relative to population growth and that "it was only due to a surge in part-time jobs (most of them casual, low-wage positions) that Mr. Abbott's million-job target was met" [3]. The research further notes that "2013-18 was the tenth time Australia created at least 1 million jobs in 5 years. The first time was 30 years ago" and that "the rate of employment growth since 2013 has been slower than the long-term historical average" [3].
2. Promise vs. standard procedures: The core issue is not whether jobs could be created, but whether major policy pledges should have supporting analysis before announcement. The lack of any Treasury modelling, calculation, or even internal government analysis for such a significant commitment represents an unusual approach to policy development [1].
3. Asymmetrical accountability: The claim highlights a legitimate double standard: if Treasury can analyse Labor's policies sufficiently to attack them, it should have been asked to analyse the Coalition's own major pledges [1]. Chris Bowen's observation on this point is factually grounded [1].
4. Historical precedent: Tony Abbott's virtually identical 1 million jobs promise ahead of 2013 also appears to have lacked detailed prior modelling, suggesting this may reflect a pattern in Coalition election strategy rather than an isolated instance [2].
TRUE
7.0
out of 10
The claim is factually accurate: Morrison did promise 1.25 million jobs without Treasury modelling, as confirmed by the FOI response and Treasury's own acknowledgment that the target exceeded their budget assumptions [1]. However, the claim's framing omits important context about jobs quality, population growth baselines, and the actual achievement of the previous (unmodelled) 1 million job pledge by Abbott, which complicate the simple narrative of "broken promise."
Final Score
7.0
OUT OF 10
TRUE
The claim is factually accurate: Morrison did promise 1.25 million jobs without Treasury modelling, as confirmed by the FOI response and Treasury's own acknowledgment that the target exceeded their budget assumptions [1]. However, the claim's framing omits important context about jobs quality, population growth baselines, and the actual achievement of the previous (unmodelled) 1 million job pledge by Abbott, which complicate the simple narrative of "broken promise."
📚 SOURCES & CITATIONS (4)
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1
sbs.com.au
Treasury has no documents or modelling that backs the government's promise to create 1.25 million jobs over five years, a freedom of information request shows.
SBS News -
2
abc.net.au
The Prime Minister is expected to use a speech in Brisbane to announce that a re-elected Coalition government will create 1.25 million jobs over the next five years.
Abc Net -
3
futurework.org.au
In the lead-up to the 2013 federal election, then-Opposition Leader Tony Abbott made a high-profile pledge that a Coalition government, if elected, would create 1 million new jobs over the next five years. Abbott was elected (although later ousted by his own party), and total employment in Australia did indeed grow by over 1 million positions between 2013 and 2018. Current Prime Minister Scott Morrison hopes that this success can resuscitate his party's flagging fortunes: he has pledged, if elected, to create even more jobs (1.25 million) over the next five years.
The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work -
4
abc.net.au
Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen releases a letter from the federal Treasury boss, distancing bureaucrats from a Coalition attack on the Opposition.
Abc Net
Rating Scale Methodology
1-3: FALSE
Factually incorrect or malicious fabrication.
4-6: PARTIAL
Some truth but context is missing or skewed.
7-9: MOSTLY TRUE
Minor technicalities or phrasing issues.
10: ACCURATE
Perfectly verified and contextually fair.
Methodology: Ratings are determined through cross-referencing official government records, independent fact-checking organizations, and primary source documents.