C0869 - 军事税 | PoliticalClaims.au

C0869

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“在所谓的预算紧急状态以及从伊拉克和阿富汗撤军之后，将国防军的年度预算翻倍，增加了240亿澳元。”

军事税收

原始来源： Matthew Davis

原始来源

mdavis.xyz

Documentation of Coalition government policies and claims.

Matthew Davis

✅ 事实核查

** * ** * 国防guó fáng guó fáng 预算yù suàn yù suàn 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā ：：： ** * ** * CoalitionCoalition Coalition 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 确实què shí què shí 显著xiǎn zhù xiǎn zhù 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 了le le 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī ，，，但dàn dàn 这zhè zhè 一yī yī 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 需要xū yào xū yào 仔细分析zǐ xì fēn xī zǐ xì fēn xī 。。。

**Defence Budget Increases:** The Coalition government did significantly increase defence spending, but the claim requires careful parsing.

20162016 2016 年nián nián 《《《国防guó fáng guó fáng 白皮书bái pí shū bái pí shū 》》》制定zhì dìng zhì dìng 了le le 将jiāng jiāng 国防guó fáng guó fáng 资金zī jīn zī jīn 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 到dào dào 20202020 2020 -- - 2121 21 年度nián dù nián dù GDPGDP GDP 的de de 2%2% 2% 的de de 计划jì huà jì huà ，，，这zhè zhè 被bèi bèi 描述miáo shù miáo shù 为wèi wèi "" " 自zì zì 19601960 1960 年代nián dài nián dài 初chū chū MenziesMenzies Menzies 时期shí qī shí qī 扩充kuò chōng kuò chōng 军备jūn bèi jūn bèi 以来yǐ lái yǐ lái 澳大利亚国防军ào dà lì yà guó fáng jūn ào dà lì yà guó fáng jūn 最zuì zuì 雄心勃勃xióng xīn bó bó xióng xīn bó bó 的de de 扩张kuò zhāng kuò zhāng 和hé hé 现代化xiàn dài huà xiàn dài huà "" " [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

The 2016 Defence White Paper set out plans to grow defence funding to 2% of GDP by 2020-21, representing what was described as "the most ambitious expansion and modernisation of the Australian Defence Force since at least the Menzies build-up in the early 1960s" [1].

政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò 在zài zài 2020 20 年内nián nèi nián nèi 投资tóu zī tóu zī 超过chāo guò chāo guò 890890 890 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 用于yòng yú yòng yú 舰船jiàn chuán jiàn chuán 和hé hé 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng ，，，包括bāo kuò bāo kuò 500500 500 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 的de de 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 计划jì huà jì huà 和约hé yuē hé yuē 400400 400 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 的de de 水面舰艇shuǐ miàn jiàn tǐng shuǐ miàn jiàn tǐng [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] 。。。

The government committed to over $89 billion in ships and submarines over 20 years, including a $50 billion submarine program and approximately $40 billion for surface vessels [2]. **The $24 Billion Figure:** The specific "$24 billion" increase mentioned in the claim appears to reference the planned growth in defence spending as outlined in the 2016 Defence White Paper.

** * ** * 240240 240 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 数字shù zì shù zì ：：： ** * ** * 该gāi gāi 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 中zhōng zhōng 提到tí dào tí dào 的de de 具体jù tǐ jù tǐ "" " 240240 240 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán "" " 增加额zēng jiā é zēng jiā é 似乎sì hū sì hū 是shì shì 指zhǐ zhǐ 20162016 2016 年nián nián 《《《国防guó fáng guó fáng 白皮书bái pí shū bái pí shū 》》》中zhōng zhōng 概述gài shù gài shù 的de de 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 计划jì huà jì huà 增长zēng zhǎng zēng zhǎng 。。。

However, this was a projected increase over multiple years to reach the 2% GDP target, not a single annual increase [3]. **"Doubled" Claim:** Whether the budget was "doubled" depends on the baseline and timeframe.

然而rán ér rán ér ，，，这zhè zhè 是shì shì 在zài zài 多年duō nián duō nián 内nèi nèi 实现shí xiàn shí xiàn 2%2% 2% GDPGDP GDP 目标mù biāo mù biāo 的de de 预计yù jì yù jì 增长zēng zhǎng zēng zhǎng ，，，并非bìng fēi bìng fēi 单一dān yī dān yī 年度nián dù nián dù 的de de 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā [[ [ 33 3 ]] ] 。。。

The 2016 White Paper planned for defence spending to grow substantially, but as a percentage of GDP, the increase was from around 1.6% (under Labor's final year) to 2% by 2020-21 [4].

** * ** * "" " 翻倍fān bèi fān bèi "" " 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ ：：： ** * ** * 预算yù suàn yù suàn 是否shì fǒu shì fǒu "" " 翻倍fān bèi fān bèi "" " 取决于qǔ jué yú qǔ jué yú 基准jī zhǔn jī zhǔn 和hé hé 时间shí jiān shí jiān 范围fàn wéi fàn wéi 。。。

In absolute dollar terms, the increase was significant but doubling would require verification against specific baselines [1]. **Budget Emergency Context:** The claim references the "budget emergency" declared by Treasurer Joe Hockey in 2013-2014.

20162016 2016 年nián nián 白皮书bái pí shū bái pí shū 计划jì huà jì huà 大幅dà fú dà fú 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī ，，，但dàn dàn 就jiù jiù GDPGDP GDP 占zhàn zhàn 比bǐ bǐ 而言ér yán ér yán ，，，增幅zēng fú zēng fú 是从shì cóng shì cóng LaborLabor Labor 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 最后zuì hòu zuì hòu 一年yī nián yī nián （（（约yuē yuē 1.6%1.6% 1.6% ）））到dào dào 20202020 2020 -- - 2121 21 年nián nián 的de de 2%2% 2% [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] 。。。

The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) in December 2014 did reveal a budget deficit blowout to $40.4 billion, up from the $29.8 billion forecast [5].

以yǐ yǐ 绝对jué duì jué duì 金额jīn é jīn é 计算jì suàn jì suàn ，，，增幅zēng fú zēng fú 显著xiǎn zhù xiǎn zhù ，，，但dàn dàn 翻倍fān bèi fān bèi 需要xū yào xū yào 针对zhēn duì zhēn duì 特定tè dìng tè dìng 基准jī zhǔn jī zhǔn 进行jìn xíng jìn xíng 验证yàn zhèng yàn zhèng [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

The government simultaneously pursued austerity measures in other areas while increasing defence spending [3]. **Iraq and Afghanistan Withdrawals:** Australian combat troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan in 2013 (under the Rudd government) and from Iraq earlier.

** * ** * 预算yù suàn yù suàn 紧急状态jǐn jí zhuàng tài jǐn jí zhuàng tài 背景bèi jǐng bèi jǐng ：：： ** * ** * 该gāi gāi 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 提到tí dào tí dào 财政部长cái zhèng bù zhǎng cái zhèng bù zhǎng JoeJoe Joe HockeyHockey Hockey 在zài zài 20132013 2013 -- - 20142014 2014 年nián nián 宣布xuān bù xuān bù 的de de "" " 预算yù suàn yù suàn 紧急状态jǐn jí zhuàng tài jǐn jí zhuàng tài "" " 。。。

The claim correctly notes that these withdrawals occurred before or during the early Coalition period, yet defence spending increased rather than decreased [6].

20142014 2014 年nián nián 1212 12 月yuè yuè 的de de 《《《年nián nián 中zhōng zhōng 经济jīng jì jīng jì 和hé hé 财政cái zhèng cái zhèng 展望zhǎn wàng zhǎn wàng 》》》（（（ MYEFOMYEFO MYEFO ）））确实què shí què shí 显示xiǎn shì xiǎn shì 预算赤字yù suàn chì zì yù suàn chì zì 激增jī zēng jī zēng 至zhì zhì 404404 404 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán ，，，高于gāo yú gāo yú 此前cǐ qián cǐ qián 预测yù cè yù cè 的de de 298298 298 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán [[ [ 55 5 ]] ] 。。。

与此同时yǔ cǐ tóng shí yǔ cǐ tóng shí ，，，政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 在zài zài 其他qí tā qí tā 领域lǐng yù lǐng yù 推行tuī xíng tuī xíng 紧缩jǐn suō jǐn suō 措施cuò shī cuò shī 的de de 同时tóng shí tóng shí 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 了le le 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī [[ [ 33 3 ]] ] 。。。

** * ** * 伊拉克yī lā kè yī lā kè 和hé hé 阿富汗ā fù hàn ā fù hàn 撤军chè jūn chè jūn ：：： ** * ** * 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 作战zuò zhàn zuò zhàn 部队bù duì bù duì 于yú yú 20132013 2013 年nián nián （（（ RuddRudd Rudd 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 时期shí qī shí qī ）））从cóng cóng 阿富汗ā fù hàn ā fù hàn 撤出chè chū chè chū ，，，并bìng bìng 更gèng gèng 早zǎo zǎo 从cóng cóng 伊拉克yī lā kè yī lā kè 撤出chè chū chè chū 。。。

该gāi gāi 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 正确zhèng què zhèng què 指出zhǐ chū zhǐ chū ，，，这些zhè xiē zhè xiē 撤军chè jūn chè jūn 发生fā shēng fā shēng 在zài zài CoalitionCoalition Coalition 执政zhí zhèng zhí zhèng 初期chū qī chū qī 或huò huò 之前zhī qián zhī qián ，，，但dàn dàn 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 反而fǎn ér fǎn ér 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 而ér ér 非fēi fēi 减少jiǎn shǎo jiǎn shǎo [[ [ 66 6 ]] ] 。。。

缺失背景

** * ** * LaborLabor Labor 的de de 国防guó fáng guó fáng 削减xuē jiǎn xuē jiǎn ：：： ** * ** * 该gāi gāi 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 忽略hū lüè hū lüè 了le le 前届qián jiè qián jiè LaborLabor Labor 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 曾céng céng 将jiāng jiāng 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 削减xuē jiǎn xuē jiǎn 至zhì zhì 历史lì shǐ lì shǐ 低点dī diǎn dī diǎn 。。。

**Labor's Defence Cuts:** The claim omits that the preceding Labor government had reduced defence spending to historic lows.

20122012 2012 -- - 1313 13 年度nián dù nián dù ，，， LaborLabor Labor 将jiāng jiāng 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 削减xuē jiǎn xuē jiǎn 至zhì zhì GDPGDP GDP 的de de 1.52%1.52% 1.52% —— — —— — 这zhè zhè 是shì shì 自zì zì 19381938 1938 年nián nián 以来yǐ lái yǐ lái 的de de 最低水平zuì dī shuǐ píng zuì dī shuǐ píng [[ [ 77 7 ]] ] 。。。

In 2012-13, Labor cut defence spending to 1.52% of GDP—the lowest level since 1938 [7].

这是zhè shì zhè shì 作为zuò wéi zuò wéi 帮助bāng zhù bāng zhù 联邦lián bāng lián bāng 预算yù suàn yù suàn 恢复huī fù huī fù 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 的de de 一项yī xiàng yī xiàng 具体措施jù tǐ cuò shī jù tǐ cuò shī [[ [ 88 8 ]] ] 。。。

This occurred as a specific measure to help return the federal budget to surplus [8].

CoalitionCoalition Coalition 的de de 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 部分bù fèn bù fèn 是shì shì 在zài zài 这些zhè xiē zhè xiē 削减xuē jiǎn xuē jiǎn 之后zhī hòu zhī hòu 恢复huī fù huī fù 资金zī jīn zī jīn 。。。

The Coalition's increases were partly restoring funding after these cuts. **2% GDP Commitment:** The increase to 2% of GDP was a long-standing Coalition policy commitment made before the 2013 election.

** * ** * 2%2% 2% GDPGDP GDP 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò ：：： ** * ** * 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 到dào dào GDPGDP GDP 的de de 2%2% 2% 是shì shì CoalitionCoalition Coalition 在zài zài 20132013 2013 年nián nián 大选dà xuǎn dà xuǎn 前qián qián 的de de 长期cháng qī cháng qī 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò 。。。

The Abbott government reaffirmed this commitment in the 2014-15 Budget, promising "no further cuts to the Defence Budget" [9]. **Strategic Context:** The 2016 Defence White Paper cited a "more complex strategic environment" in the Asia-Pacific region as justification for the spending increases [2].

AbbottAbbott Abbott 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 在zài zài 20142014 2014 -- - 1515 15 年度预算nián dù yù suàn nián dù yù suàn 中zhōng zhōng 重申chóng shēn chóng shēn 了le le 这zhè zhè 一yī yī 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò ，，，保证bǎo zhèng bǎo zhèng "" " 不再bù zài bù zài 进一步jìn yí bù jìn yí bù 削减xuē jiǎn xuē jiǎn 国防guó fáng guó fáng 预算yù suàn yù suàn "" " [[ [ 99 9 ]] ] 。。。

The government argued that growing regional instability, including China's military expansion, necessitated enhanced capabilities [1]. **Long-Term Planning:** The defence increases were planned over a decade, not implemented immediately.

** * ** * 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 背景bèi jǐng bèi jǐng ：：： ** * ** * 20162016 2016 年nián nián 《《《国防guó fáng guó fáng 白皮书bái pí shū bái pí shū 》》》将jiāng jiāng 亚太地区yà tài dì qū yà tài dì qū "" " 更加gèng jiā gèng jiā 复杂fù zá fù zá 的de de 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 环境huán jìng huán jìng "" " 列为liè wèi liè wèi 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 的de de 理由lǐ yóu lǐ yóu [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] 。。。

The 2016 White Paper provided "a decade of explicit funding guidance" with spending reaching 2% of GDP in 2020-21 and rising to 2.2% thereafter [3].

政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 认为rèn wéi rèn wéi ，，，包括bāo kuò bāo kuò 中国zhōng guó zhōng guó 军事jūn shì jūn shì 扩张kuò zhāng kuò zhāng 在内zài nèi zài nèi 的de de 日益增长rì yì zēng zhǎng rì yì zēng zhǎng 的de de 地区dì qū dì qū 不bù bù 稳定wěn dìng wěn dìng 因素yīn sù yīn sù 需要xū yào xū yào 增强zēng qiáng zēng qiáng 能力néng lì néng lì [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

** * ** * 长期cháng qī cháng qī 规划guī huà guī huà ：：： ** * ** * 国防guó fáng guó fáng 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 是shì shì 在zài zài 十年shí nián shí nián 内nèi nèi 规划guī huà guī huà 的de de ，，，而ér ér 非fēi fēi 立即lì jí lì jí 实施shí shī shí shī 。。。

20162016 2016 年nián nián 白皮书bái pí shū bái pí shū 提供tí gōng tí gōng 了le le "" " 十年shí nián shí nián 的de de 明确míng què míng què 资金zī jīn zī jīn 指导zhǐ dǎo zhǐ dǎo "" " ，，，开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 在zài zài 20202020 2020 -- - 2121 21 年nián nián 达到dá dào dá dào GDPGDP GDP 的de de 2%2% 2% ，，，之后zhī hòu zhī hòu 上升shàng shēng shàng shēng 到dào dào 2.2%2.2% 2.2% [[ [ 33 3 ]] ] 。。。

来源可信度评估

** * ** * TheThe The AustralianAustralian Australian (( ( 20152015 2015 )) ) :: : ** * ** * 一家yī jiā yī jiā 主流zhǔ liú zhǔ liú 的de de MurdochMurdoch Murdoch 旗下qí xià qí xià 报纸bào zhǐ bào zhǐ 。。。

**The Australian (2015):** A mainstream Murdoch-owned newspaper.

事实shì shí shì shí 报道bào dào bào dào 总体zǒng tǐ zǒng tǐ 可信kě xìn kě xìn ，，，但dàn dàn 带有dài yǒu dài yǒu 中zhōng zhōng 右翼yòu yì yòu yì 编辑biān jí biān jí 倾向qīng xiàng qīng xiàng 。。。

Generally credible for factual reporting but with centre-right editorial leanings.

白皮书bái pí shū bái pí shū 报道bào dào bào dào 似乎sì hū sì hū 是shì shì 事实性shì shí xìng shì shí xìng 的de de 。。。

The white paper story appears factual. **The Guardian (2004):** A left-leaning mainstream outlet.

** * ** * TheThe The GuardianGuardian Guardian (( ( 20042004 2004 )) ) :: : ** * ** * 一家yī jiā yī jiā 左倾zuǒ qīng zuǒ qīng 的de de 主流zhǔ liú zhǔ liú 媒体méi tǐ méi tǐ 。。。

The 2004 article appears to predate the claim's timeframe and may be included to provide historical context on defence spending patterns. **ABC News - Koukoulas (2013):** Stephen Koukoulas is an economist with Labor connections who served as economics advisor to Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

20042004 2004 年nián nián 的de de 文章wén zhāng wén zhāng 似乎sì hū sì hū 早于zǎo yú zǎo yú 该gāi gāi 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 的de de 时间shí jiān shí jiān 范围fàn wéi fàn wéi ，，，可能kě néng kě néng 包含bāo hán bāo hán 在内zài nèi zài nèi 是shì shì 为了wèi le wèi le 提供tí gōng tí gōng 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 模式mó shì mó shì 的de de 历史背景lì shǐ bèi jǐng lì shǐ bèi jǐng 。。。

His analysis that the "budget emergency" was exaggerated reflects a partisan perspective [10]. **New Matilda (2014):** An independent online publication with progressive/left-leaning editorial stance.

** * ** * ABCABC ABC NewsNews News -- - KoukoulasKoukoulas Koukoulas (( ( 20132013 2013 )) ) :: : ** * ** * StephenStephen Stephen KoukoulasKoukoulas Koukoulas 是shì shì 一位yī wèi yī wèi 与yǔ yǔ LaborLabor Labor 有yǒu yǒu 联系lián xì lián xì 的de de 经济学家jīng jì xué jiā jīng jì xué jiā ，，，曾任céng rèn céng rèn 总理zǒng lǐ zǒng lǐ JuliaJulia Julia GillardGillard Gillard 的de de 经济jīng jì jīng jì 顾问gù wèn gù wèn 。。。

Known for critical coverage of government policy.

他tā tā 关于guān yú guān yú "" " 预算yù suàn yù suàn 紧急状态jǐn jí zhuàng tài jǐn jí zhuàng tài "" " 被bèi bèi 夸大kuā dà kuā dà 的de de 分析fēn xī fēn xī 反映fǎn yìng fǎn yìng 了le le 党派dǎng pài dǎng pài 观点guān diǎn guān diǎn [[ [ 1010 10 ]] ] 。。。

Should be considered advocacy journalism rather than neutral reporting [11].

** * ** * NewNew New MatildaMatilda Matilda (( ( 20142014 2014 )) ) :: : ** * ** * 一家yī jiā yī jiā 独立dú lì dú lì 的de de 在线zài xiàn zài xiàn 出版物chū bǎn wù chū bǎn wù ，，，具有jù yǒu jù yǒu 进步jìn bù jìn bù // / 左倾zuǒ qīng zuǒ qīng 编辑biān jí biān jí 立场lì chǎng lì chǎng 。。。

Overall, the original sources include a mix of mainstream media and opinion/analysis pieces from commentators with known partisan affiliations.

以yǐ yǐ 对duì duì 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè 的de de 批评性pī píng xìng pī píng xìng 报道bào dào bào dào 著称zhù chēng zhù chēng 。。。

The Koukoulas article in particular comes from a source with direct Labor government ties.

应yīng yīng 被bèi bèi 视为shì wèi shì wèi 倡导chàng dǎo chàng dǎo 性xìng xìng 新闻xīn wén xīn wén 而ér ér 非fēi fēi 中立zhōng lì zhōng lì 报道bào dào bào dào [[ [ 1111 11 ]] ] 。。。

总体而言zǒng tǐ ér yán zǒng tǐ ér yán ，，，原始yuán shǐ yuán shǐ 资料zī liào zī liào 包括bāo kuò bāo kuò 主流zhǔ liú zhǔ liú 媒体méi tǐ méi tǐ 以及yǐ jí yǐ jí 具有jù yǒu jù yǒu 已知yǐ zhī yǐ zhī 党派dǎng pài dǎng pài 背景bèi jǐng bèi jǐng 的de de 评论员píng lùn yuán píng lùn yuán 撰写zhuàn xiě zhuàn xiě 的de de 观点guān diǎn guān diǎn // / 分析fēn xī fēn xī 文章wén zhāng wén zhāng 的de de 混合hùn hé hùn hé 。。。

KoukoulasKoukoulas Koukoulas 的de de 文章wén zhāng wén zhāng 尤其yóu qí yóu qí 来自lái zì lái zì 与yǔ yǔ LaborLabor Labor 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 有yǒu yǒu 直接zhí jiē zhí jiē 联系lián xì lián xì 的de de 来源lái yuán lái yuán 。。。

⚖️

工党对比

** * ** * LaborLabor Labor 是否shì fǒu shì fǒu 做过zuò guò zuò guò 类似lèi sì lèi sì 的de de 事情shì qíng shì qíng ？？？

**Did Labor do something similar?** **Historical Defence Spending:** RMIT ABC Fact Check analysis shows that average defence spending as a percentage of GDP was remarkably similar between the Howard Coalition government (1.77%) and the Rudd-Gillard Labor government (1.72%) [7].

** * ** *

This suggests that, on average, both major parties maintained comparable defence spending levels over their terms. **Howard vs Labor Patterns:** Under the Howard government, defence spending increased in real terms by 4.6% per year on average.

** * ** * 历史lì shǐ lì shǐ 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī ：：： ** * ** * RMITRMIT RMIT ABCABC ABC 事实shì shí shì shí 核查hé chá hé chá 分析fēn xī fēn xī 显示xiǎn shì xiǎn shì ，，， HowardHoward Howard 领导lǐng dǎo lǐng dǎo 的de de CoalitionCoalition Coalition 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ （（（ 1.77%1.77% 1.77% ）））与yǔ yǔ RuddRudd Rudd -- - GillardGillard Gillard 领导lǐng dǎo lǐng dǎo 的de de LaborLabor Labor 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ （（（ 1.72%1.72% 1.72% ）））的de de 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 占zhàn zhàn GDPGDP GDP 平均píng jūn píng jūn 比例bǐ lì bǐ lì 惊人jīng rén jīng rén 地dì dì 相似xiāng sì xiāng sì [[ [ 77 7 ]] ] 。。。

Under Labor, real spending increased by only 0.6% per year on average [7].

这zhè zhè 表明biǎo míng biǎo míng ，，，平均píng jūn píng jūn 而言ér yán ér yán ，，，两个liǎng gè liǎng gè 主要zhǔ yào zhǔ yào 政党zhèng dǎng zhèng dǎng 在zài zài 任期rèn qī rèn qī 内nèi nèi 维持wéi chí wéi chí 了le le 相当xiāng dāng xiāng dāng 的de de 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 水平shuǐ píng shuǐ píng 。。。

However, Labor did have one anomalous year (2009-10) where spending jumped to 1.99% of GDP—higher than any single year under Howard, Abbott, or Turnbull [8]. **Labor's Final Year Cut:** Labor's last full year (2012-13) saw defence spending cut to 1.52% of GDP—the lowest since 1938 [7].

** * ** * HowardHoward Howard vsvs vs LaborLabor Labor 模式mó shì mó shì ：：： ** * ** * 在zài zài HowardHoward Howard 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 领导lǐng dǎo lǐng dǎo 下xià xià ，，，国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 实际shí jì shí jì 年均nián jūn nián jūn 增长zēng zhǎng zēng zhǎng 4.6%4.6% 4.6% 。。。

This was a specific decision to achieve a budget surplus promise [8]. **Restoration vs Expansion:** The Coalition's increases can be viewed as partially restoring funding after Labor's cuts, though the 2016 White Paper went further with ambitious long-term expansion plans [1][3]. **Conclusion on Comparison:** Labor governments historically spent similar amounts on defence as a percentage of GDP over their terms.

在zài zài LaborLabor Labor 领导lǐng dǎo lǐng dǎo 下xià xià ，，，实际shí jì shí jì 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 年均nián jūn nián jūn 仅jǐn jǐn 增长zēng zhǎng zēng zhǎng 0.6%0.6% 0.6% [[ [ 77 7 ]] ] 。。。

The key difference was Labor's significant cut in their final year, which the Coalition reversed and expanded upon.

然而rán ér rán ér ，，， LaborLabor Labor 确实què shí què shí 有yǒu yǒu 一个yí gè yí gè 异常yì cháng yì cháng 年份nián fèn nián fèn （（（ 20092009 2009 -- - 1010 10 ））），，，开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 跃升yuè shēng yuè shēng 至zhì zhì GDPGDP GDP 的de de 1.99%1.99% 1.99% —— — —— — 高于gāo yú gāo yú HowardHoward Howard 、、、 AbbottAbbott Abbott 或huò huò TurnbullTurnbull Turnbull 任期rèn qī rèn qī 内nèi nèi 任何rèn hé rèn hé 单一dān yī dān yī 年份nián fèn nián fèn [[ [ 88 8 ]] ] 。。。

** * ** * LaborLabor Labor 最后zuì hòu zuì hòu 一年yī nián yī nián 削减xuē jiǎn xuē jiǎn ：：： ** * ** * LaborLabor Labor 的de de 最后zuì hòu zuì hòu 一个yí gè yí gè 完整wán zhěng wán zhěng 年度nián dù nián dù （（（ 20122012 2012 -- - 1313 13 ）））国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 被bèi bèi 削减xuē jiǎn xuē jiǎn 至zhì zhì GDPGDP GDP 的de de 1.52%1.52% 1.52% —— — —— — 这zhè zhè 是shì shì 自zì zì 19381938 1938 年nián nián 以来yǐ lái yǐ lái 的de de 最低水平zuì dī shuǐ píng zuì dī shuǐ píng [[ [ 77 7 ]] ] 。。。

这zhè zhè 是shì shì 为wèi wèi 兑现duì xiàn duì xiàn 预算yù suàn yù suàn 盈余yíng yú yíng yú 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò 而ér ér 做出zuò chū zuò chū 的de de 具体jù tǐ jù tǐ 决定jué dìng jué dìng [[ [ 88 8 ]] ] 。。。

** * ** * 恢复huī fù huī fù vsvs vs 扩张kuò zhāng kuò zhāng ：：： ** * ** * CoalitionCoalition Coalition 的de de 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 可kě kě 被bèi bèi 视为shì wèi shì wèi 在zài zài LaborLabor Labor 削减xuē jiǎn xuē jiǎn 后hòu hòu 部分bù fèn bù fèn 恢复huī fù huī fù 资金zī jīn zī jīn ，，，尽管jǐn guǎn jǐn guǎn 20162016 2016 年nián nián 白皮书bái pí shū bái pí shū 以yǐ yǐ 更gèng gèng 雄心勃勃xióng xīn bó bó xióng xīn bó bó 的de de 长期cháng qī cháng qī 扩张kuò zhāng kuò zhāng 计划jì huà jì huà 更进一步gèng jìn yí bù gèng jìn yí bù [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] [[ [ 33 3 ]] ] 。。。

** * ** * 比较bǐ jiào bǐ jiào 结论jié lùn jié lùn ：：： ** * ** * LaborLabor Labor 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 在历史上zài lì shǐ shàng zài lì shǐ shàng 就jiù jiù GDPGDP GDP 占zhàn zhàn 比bǐ bǐ 而言ér yán ér yán 在zài zài 国防guó fáng guó fáng 上shàng shàng 花费huā fèi huā fèi 了le le 相似xiāng sì xiāng sì 的de de 金额jīn é jīn é 。。。

关键guān jiàn guān jiàn 区别qū bié qū bié 在于zài yú zài yú LaborLabor Labor 在zài zài 最后zuì hòu zuì hòu 一年yī nián yī nián 大幅dà fú dà fú 削减xuē jiǎn xuē jiǎn ，，， CoalitionCoalition Coalition 将jiāng jiāng 其qí qí 扭转niǔ zhuǎn niǔ zhuǎn 并bìng bìng 扩大kuò dà kuò dà 。。。

🌐

平衡视角

** * ** * 合理hé lǐ hé lǐ 的de de 政策zhèng cè zhèng cè 理由lǐ yóu lǐ yóu ：：： ** * ** * CoalitionCoalition Coalition 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 的de de 理由lǐ yóu lǐ yóu 是shì shì 将jiāng jiāng 其qí qí 作为zuò wéi zuò wéi 对duì duì 亚太地区yà tài dì qū yà tài dì qū "" " 更加gèng jiā gèng jiā 复杂fù zá fù zá 的de de 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 环境huán jìng huán jìng "" " 的de de 必要bì yào bì yào 回应huí yìng huí yìng [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] 。。。

**Legitimate Policy Rationale:** The Coalition's defence spending increases were framed as necessary responses to a "more complex strategic environment" in the Asia-Pacific region [2].

政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 指出zhǐ chū zhǐ chū 中国zhōng guó zhōng guó 的de de 军事jūn shì jūn shì 扩张kuò zhāng kuò zhāng 、、、地区dì qū dì qū 不bù bù 稳定wěn dìng wěn dìng 以及yǐ jí yǐ jí 保持bǎo chí bǎo chí 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà "" " 能力néng lì néng lì 优势yōu shì yōu shì "" " 的de de 必要性bì yào xìng bì yào xìng 作为zuò wéi zuò wéi 理由lǐ yóu lǐ yóu [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

The government cited China's military expansion, regional instability, and the need to maintain Australia's "capability edge" as justifications [1].

达到dá dào dá dào GDPGDP GDP 的de de 2%2% 2% 是shì shì 一项yī xiàng yī xiàng 明确míng què míng què 的de de 选举xuǎn jǔ xuǎn jǔ 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò ，，，赋予fù yǔ fù yǔ 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 实施shí shī shí shī 这些zhè xiē zhè xiē 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 的de de 授权shòu quán shòu quán [[ [ 99 9 ]] ] 。。。

The commitment to 2% of GDP was a clear election promise, giving the government a mandate for these increases [9]. **Budget Emergency Inconsistency:** Critics, including economist Stephen Koukoulas, argued that the "budget emergency" rhetoric was inconsistent with simultaneously increasing defence spending while cutting other areas [10].

** * ** * 预算yù suàn yù suàn 紧急状态jǐn jí zhuàng tài jǐn jí zhuàng tài 不一致性bù yī zhì xìng bù yī zhì xìng ：：： ** * ** * 批评者pī píng zhě pī píng zhě ，，，包括bāo kuò bāo kuò 经济学家jīng jì xué jiā jīng jì xué jiā StephenStephen Stephen KoukoulasKoukoulas Koukoulas ，，，认为rèn wéi rèn wéi "" " 预算yù suàn yù suàn 紧急状态jǐn jí zhuàng tài jǐn jí zhuàng tài "" " 的de de 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 与yǔ yǔ 同时tóng shí tóng shí 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 而ér ér 削减xuē jiǎn xuē jiǎn 其他qí tā qí tā 领域lǐng yù lǐng yù 不bù bù 一致yí zhì yí zhì [[ [ 1010 10 ]] ] 。。。

The 2014 MYEFO did show significant deficit blowouts while defence funding grew [5]. **Post-Withdrawal Paradox:** The claim correctly identifies a paradox: defence spending increased even as major combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan wound down.

20142014 2014 年nián nián MYEFOMYEFO MYEFO 确实què shí què shí 显示xiǎn shì xiǎn shì 赤字chì zì chì zì 急剧jí jù jí jù 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā ，，，而ér ér 国防guó fáng guó fáng 资金zī jīn zī jīn 却què què 在zài zài 增长zēng zhǎng zēng zhǎng [[ [ 55 5 ]] ] 。。。

The government argued this reflected a shift toward "peaceful" regional engagement and capability modernization rather than operational costs [1]. **Industry and Jobs Argument:** The defence increases were also framed as economic stimulus, with the government highlighting that the $50 billion submarine program would support 1,100 Australian jobs directly and 1,700 more through supply chains [2].

** * ** * 撤军chè jūn chè jūn 后hòu hòu 的de de 悖论bèi lùn bèi lùn ：：： ** * ** * 该gāi gāi 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 正确zhèng què zhèng què 指出zhǐ chū zhǐ chū 了le le 一个yí gè yí gè 悖论bèi lùn bèi lùn ：：：即使jí shǐ jí shǐ 在zài zài 伊拉克yī lā kè yī lā kè 和hé hé 阿富汗ā fù hàn ā fù hàn 的de de 主要zhǔ yào zhǔ yào 作战zuò zhàn zuò zhàn 行动xíng dòng xíng dòng 逐渐zhú jiàn zhú jiàn 结束jié shù jié shù 时shí shí ，，，国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 反而fǎn ér fǎn ér 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 。。。

The continuous naval shipbuilding strategy was presented as creating "long-term high skilled jobs" [2]. **Expert Assessment:** ASPI senior analyst Marcus Hellyer, who managed defence investment during the Labor government, noted that both major parties have historically maintained defence spending in the 1.7-1.8% of GDP range [8].

政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 辩称biàn chēng biàn chēng ，，，这zhè zhè 反映fǎn yìng fǎn yìng 了le le 向xiàng xiàng "" " 和平hé píng hé píng "" " 地区dì qū dì qū 接触jiē chù jiē chù 和hé hé 能力néng lì néng lì 现代化xiàn dài huà xiàn dài huà 的de de 转变zhuǎn biàn zhuǎn biàn ，，，而ér ér 非作战fēi zuò zhàn fēi zuò zhàn 成本chéng běn chéng běn [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] 。。。

Public governance expert Stephen Bartos stated that "there was little difference between the two sides of politics when it comes to defence spending" [8]. **Key Context:** This was not unique to the Coalition—both major parties have historically maintained similar defence spending levels, with the Coalition's increases following Labor's anomalous final-year cut.

** * ** * 产业chǎn yè chǎn yè 和hé hé 就业jiù yè jiù yè 论点lùn diǎn lùn diǎn ：：： ** * ** * 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 也yě yě 被bèi bèi 视为shì wèi shì wèi 经济jīng jì jīng jì 刺激cì jī cì jī ，，，政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 强调qiáng diào qiáng diào 500500 500 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 的de de 潜艇qián tǐng qián tǐng 计划jì huà jì huà 将jiāng jiāng 直接zhí jiē zhí jiē 支持zhī chí zhī chí 11 1 ,, , 100100 100 个gè gè 澳大利亚ào dà lì yà ào dà lì yà 就业jiù yè jiù yè 岗位gǎng wèi gǎng wèi ，，，并bìng bìng 通过tōng guò tōng guò 供应链gōng yìng liàn gōng yìng liàn 支持zhī chí zhī chí 另外lìng wài lìng wài 11 1 ,, , 700700 700 个gè gè [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] 。。。

The increases were partly restoration and partly expansion based on strategic assessments.

持续chí xù chí xù 的de de 造船zào chuán zào chuán 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 被bèi bèi 表述biǎo shù biǎo shù 为wèi wèi 创造chuàng zào chuàng zào "" " 长期cháng qī cháng qī 高技能gāo jì néng gāo jì néng 就业jiù yè jiù yè 岗位gǎng wèi gǎng wèi "" " [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] 。。。

** * ** * 专家zhuān jiā zhuān jiā 评估píng gū píng gū ：：： ** * ** * ASPIASPI ASPI 高级gāo jí gāo jí 分析师fēn xī shī fēn xī shī MarcusMarcus Marcus HellyerHellyer Hellyer 在zài zài LaborLabor Labor 政府zhèng fǔ zhèng fǔ 期间qī jiān qī jiān 管理guǎn lǐ guǎn lǐ 国防guó fáng guó fáng 投资tóu zī tóu zī ，，，他tā tā 指出zhǐ chū zhǐ chū 两个liǎng gè liǎng gè 主要zhǔ yào zhǔ yào 政党zhèng dǎng zhèng dǎng 历史lì shǐ lì shǐ 上shàng shàng 一直yì zhí yì zhí 将jiāng jiāng 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 维持wéi chí wéi chí 在zài zài GDPGDP GDP 的de de 1.71.7 1.7 -- - 1.8%1.8% 1.8% 的de de 范围fàn wéi fàn wéi 内nèi nèi [[ [ 88 8 ]] ] 。。。

公共gōng gòng gōng gòng 治理zhì lǐ zhì lǐ 专家zhuān jiā zhuān jiā StephenStephen Stephen BartosBartos Bartos 表示biǎo shì biǎo shì ，，， "" " 两党liǎng dǎng liǎng dǎng 在zài zài 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 方面fāng miàn fāng miàn 几乎jī hū jī hū 没有méi yǒu méi yǒu 区别qū bié qū bié "" " [[ [ 88 8 ]] ] 。。。

** * ** * 关键guān jiàn guān jiàn 背景bèi jǐng bèi jǐng ：：： ** * ** * 这zhè zhè 并非bìng fēi bìng fēi CoalitionCoalition Coalition 独有dú yǒu dú yǒu —— — —— — 两个liǎng gè liǎng gè 主要zhǔ yào zhǔ yào 政党zhèng dǎng zhèng dǎng 历史lì shǐ lì shǐ 上shàng shàng 一直yì zhí yì zhí 维持wéi chí wéi chí 相似xiāng sì xiāng sì 的de de 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 水平shuǐ píng shuǐ píng ，，， CoalitionCoalition Coalition 的de de 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 是shì shì 在zài zài LaborLabor Labor 异常yì cháng yì cháng 的de de 最后zuì hòu zuì hòu 一年yī nián yī nián 削减xuē jiǎn xuē jiǎn 之后zhī hòu zhī hòu 进行jìn xíng jìn xíng 的de de 。。。

增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 部分bù fèn bù fèn 是shì shì 恢复huī fù huī fù ，，，部分bù fèn bù fèn 是shì shì 基于jī yú jī yú 战略zhàn lüè zhàn lüè 评估píng gū píng gū 的de de 扩张kuò zhāng kuò zhāng 。。。

部分属实

6.0

/ 10

该gāi gāi 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 包含bāo hán bāo hán 部分bù fèn bù fèn 事实shì shí shì shí 要素yào sù yào sù ，，，但dàn dàn 需要xū yào xū yào 加以jiā yǐ jiā yǐ 限定xiàn dìng xiàn dìng 。。。

The claim contains elements of truth but requires qualification.

CoalitionCoalition Coalition 确实què shí què shí 通过tōng guò tōng guò 20162016 2016 年nián nián 《《《国防guó fáng guó fáng 白皮书bái pí shū bái pí shū 》》》显著xiǎn zhù xiǎn zhù 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 了le le 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī ，，，计划jì huà jì huà 将jiāng jiāng 资金zī jīn zī jīn 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 到dào dào GDPGDP GDP 的de de 2%2% 2% ，，，并bìng bìng 在zài zài 二十年èr shí nián èr shí nián 内nèi nèi 进行jìn xíng jìn xíng 总计zǒng jì zǒng jì 数百shù bǎi shù bǎi 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán 的de de 主要zhǔ yào zhǔ yào 资本zī běn zī běn 投资tóu zī tóu zī [[ [ 11 1 ]] ] [[ [ 22 2 ]] ] 。。。

The Coalition did significantly increase defence spending through the 2016 Defence White Paper, with plans to grow funding to 2% of GDP and major capital investments totaling tens of billions over two decades [1][2].

"" " 240240 240 亿澳元yì ào yuán yì ào yuán "" " 的de de 数字shù zì shù zì 似乎sì hū sì hū 是shì shì 指向zhǐ xiàng zhǐ xiàng 2%2% 2% GDPGDP GDP 目标mù biāo mù biāo 的de de 预计yù jì yù jì 增加额zēng jiā é zēng jiā é 。。。

The "$24 billion" figure appears to reference projected increases toward the 2% GDP target.

然而rán ér rán ér ，，， "" " 翻倍fān bèi fān bèi "" " 的de de 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 缺乏quē fá quē fá 适当shì dàng shì dàng 背景bèi jǐng bèi jǐng 时shí shí 具有jù yǒu jù yǒu 误导性wù dǎo xìng wù dǎo xìng 。。。

However, the "doubled" claim is misleading without proper context.

增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 是从shì cóng shì cóng 历史lì shǐ lì shǐ 低位dī wèi dī wèi （（（ LaborLabor Labor 最后zuì hòu zuì hòu 一年yī nián yī nián GDPGDP GDP 的de de 1.52%1.52% 1.52% ）））开始kāi shǐ kāi shǐ 的de de ，，，部分bù fèn bù fèn 代表dài biǎo dài biǎo 了le le LaborLabor Labor 削减xuē jiǎn xuē jiǎn 后hòu hòu 的de de 恢复huī fù huī fù [[ [ 77 7 ]] ] 。。。

The increases were from a historically low baseline (1.52% of GDP in Labor's final year), partly representing restoration after Labor's cuts [7].

以yǐ yǐ GDPGDP GDP 占zhàn zhàn 比bǐ bǐ 计算jì suàn jì suàn ，，，增幅zēng fú zēng fú 是从shì cóng shì cóng 约yuē yuē 1.6%1.6% 1.6% 到dào dào 2%2% 2% —— — —— — 显著xiǎn zhù xiǎn zhù 但dàn dàn 并非bìng fēi bìng fēi 翻倍fān bèi fān bèi [[ [ 44 4 ]] ] 。。。

In percentage-of-GDP terms, the increase was from ~1.6% to 2%—significant but not doubling [4].

该gāi gāi 说法shuō fǎ shuō fǎ 正确zhèng què zhèng què 指出zhǐ chū zhǐ chū 了le le 在zài zài 宣布xuān bù xuān bù "" " 预算yù suàn yù suàn 紧急状态jǐn jí zhuàng tài jǐn jí zhuàng tài "" " 的de de 同时tóng shí tóng shí 增加zēng jiā zēng jiā 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 的de de 表面biǎo miàn biǎo miàn 不一致性bù yī zhì xìng bù yī zhì xìng [[ [ 55 5 ]] ] [[ [ 1010 10 ]] ] 。。。

The claim correctly identifies the apparent inconsistency of increasing defence spending while declaring a "budget emergency" [5][10].

然而rán ér rán ér ，，，它tā tā 忽略hū lüè hū lüè 了le le 2%2% 2% GDPGDP GDP 目标mù biāo mù biāo 是shì shì 一项yī xiàng yī xiàng 明确míng què míng què 的de de 选举xuǎn jǔ xuǎn jǔ 承诺chéng nuò chéng nuò ，，，以及yǐ jí yǐ jí 历史lì shǐ lì shǐ 上shàng shàng 两个liǎng gè liǎng gè 主要zhǔ yào zhǔ yào 政党zhèng dǎng zhèng dǎng 都dōu dōu 维持wéi chí wéi chí 着zhe zhe 相似xiāng sì xiāng sì 的de de 国防guó fáng guó fáng 开支kāi zhī kāi zhī 水平shuǐ píng shuǐ píng [[ [ 77 7 ]] ] [[ [ 88 8 ]] ] 。。。

However, it omits that the 2% GDP target was a clear election commitment and that similar defence spending levels were maintained by both major parties historically [7][8].

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