The Claim
“Doubled government net debt (even before COVID)”
Original Sources Provided
✅ FACTUAL VERIFICATION
The claim that government net debt doubled is broadly accurate based on the documentary evidence, though the phrase "even before COVID" requires careful examination.
According to The Conversation's 2018 fact-check analysis, when the Coalition took office in September 2013, net debt was approximately A$174.5 billion [1]. By July 2018, the budget estimate of net debt had reached approximately A$341 billion [1]. This represents a 95% increase, making the claim of "doubling" (which would be 100% increase) substantially accurate [1].
The phrase "even before COVID" is relevant to the timeline. By the end of the 2019-20 financial year (before COVID-19 economic impacts were fully reflected), net debt had continued rising [2]. The 2019 debt-to-GDP ratio was 60.23%, increasing significantly as a result of government spending during the pandemic response in 2019-20 [3].
However, by the financial year 2018-19 specifically (before COVID emerged in late 2019), net debt was still substantially elevated from the 2013 baseline. The Coalition's deficit fell to just A$0.7 billion in 2018-19 before "shooting up to A$85.3 billion in 2019/20 as spending increased dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic" [2].
Missing Context
The claim omits critical context about what drove net debt increases:
Global Financial Crisis Legacy: The Conversation's analysis notes that net debt rose by approximately A$197 billion under Labor (2007-2013), which was "around A$30 billion more than has been the case under the current Coalition government" [1]. This is important context—net debt increases occurred under both governments, with Labor's increase actually being larger despite the Coalition's doubling claim.
Economic Growth vs. Absolute Debt: Most economists assess debt relative to GDP, not absolute figures. The net debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 11.3% in September 2013 to 18.3% in July 2016, after which it "roughly stabilised" [1]. This measure is more economically meaningful than raw dollar amounts, as it shows the debt burden relative to economic capacity [1].
Pre-COVID Deficit Trajectory: Importantly, the Coalition had reduced the deficit to just A$0.7 billion in 2018-19, suggesting the trajectory of debt accumulation was slowing before the pandemic hit [2]. This context is missing from the claim.
Inherited Debt Position: Australia inherited a net debt position from the Global Financial Crisis era—net debt was negative (A$-24.2 billion asset position) under the final Howard Coalition government in July 2007 but had risen to A$159.6 billion by Labor's exit in 2013 [1]. The Coalition inherited an already-elevated debt position.
Source Credibility Assessment
The original source provided (The Conversation) is a reputable, mainstream fact-checking organization [1]. The Conversation's FactCheck unit was "the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network" [1]. The article explicitly states this was fact-checked in response to a claim by Shadow Minister for Finance Jim Chalmers and includes detailed government financial statements and budget papers as sources [1].
The analysis acknowledges complexity and provides balanced perspective, noting that "in terms of economic management, not a great deal" can be concluded from raw debt figures alone, and that most economists focus on debt-to-GDP ratios instead [1].
Labor Comparison
Did Labor do something similar?
Yes. The Conversation's analysis provides direct comparison: During Labor's final term (2007-2013, including the Global Financial Crisis), net debt rose by approximately A$197 billion—about A$30 billion MORE than the Coalition's increase [1].
In absolute terms:
- Labor's net debt increase: A$197 billion (2007-2013)
- Coalition's net debt increase (to 2018): A$166.5 billion (2013-2018)
While the Coalition doubled the dollar amount inherited from Labor, Labor's absolute increase in net debt during its term was actually larger [1]. Additionally, Labor faced the unprecedented Global Financial Crisis, while the Coalition's increases occurred during a more stable economic period (until COVID-19) [2].
AAP FactCheck (2022) noted that net government debt in 2021/22 was projected to be around 4.2 times what it was during Labor's final year in office [2]. However, this figure includes COVID-19 pandemic spending, which both parties implemented [2].
Balanced Perspective
While critics argue the Coalition doubled net debt, important context reveals this is more complex than the raw comparison suggests:
Coalition's Justification & Context: The Coalition inherited a debt position that had already increased significantly during the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2013). Net debt had risen from negative (net asset position) in 2007 to A$159.6 billion by 2013 [1]. The Coalition's priority was reducing the deficit, and it succeeded in bringing the deficit to just A$0.7 billion by 2018-19, the lowest in years [2].
Why Debt Continued Rising: Even with a small deficit, net debt continued rising due to the accumulated effect of government spending on assets, infrastructure, and services. The government's gross debt (distinct from net debt) includes A$50 billion in share investments and A$50 billion in public sector entity equity, which increase net debt accounting even when not creating actual liabilities [1].
Economic Growth Consideration: The critical measure economists use is debt-to-GDP ratio, not absolute dollars. The Coalition's net debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 11.3% to 18.3% by 2016, then "roughly stabilised" [1]. Australia's debt-to-GDP ratio in 2019 was 60.23%, modest by international standards [3].
Pre-COVID Trajectory: Before COVID-19 hit in early 2020, the Coalition had reduced the annual deficit to A$0.7 billion (2018-19), suggesting net debt trajectory was stabilizing [2]. The subsequent increase came from pandemic response spending that both governments implemented [2].
Labor's Track Record: Labor's own net debt increase (A$197 billion in 2007-2013) was larger in absolute terms than the Coalition's pre-COVID increase [1]. Both major parties have historically struggled with debt management during economic crises.
Expert Assessment: Economist Mark Crosby noted that "economic growth and other important economic outcomes have had little to do with which party is in power" [1]. Debt levels are influenced by inherited positions, economic circumstances, and policy choices—not simply partisan economic management.
Key context: This is not unique to the Coalition. Net debt increased under Labor due to the GFC, and under the Coalition due to inherited position and ongoing government spending. The phrase "even before COVID" is technically accurate but misleading—debt was rising more slowly pre-COVID (to 2018-19), suggesting stabilization before pandemic spending occurred [2].
PARTIALLY TRUE
6.5
out of 10
The claim that net debt doubled is factually accurate (95% increase from A$174.5B to A$341B is approximately doubling) [1]. However, the claim significantly misrepresents the context:
- Labor's net debt increase (2007-2013) was actually larger in absolute terms (A$197B vs A$166.5B) [1]
- Most economists assess debt relative to GDP, not absolute figures [1]
- The Coalition had reduced the annual deficit to near-zero by 2018-19, suggesting stabilization before COVID [2]
- The inherited debt position came from the Global Financial Crisis era under Labor [1]
The claim selectively presents one metric (absolute debt doubling) while omitting important context about comparative government performance, economic measurement standards, and trajectory stabilization. It's technically true but framed to suggest worse economic management than the data substantiates.
Final Score
6.5
OUT OF 10
PARTIALLY TRUE
The claim that net debt doubled is factually accurate (95% increase from A$174.5B to A$341B is approximately doubling) [1]. However, the claim significantly misrepresents the context:
- Labor's net debt increase (2007-2013) was actually larger in absolute terms (A$197B vs A$166.5B) [1]
- Most economists assess debt relative to GDP, not absolute figures [1]
- The Coalition had reduced the annual deficit to near-zero by 2018-19, suggesting stabilization before COVID [2]
- The inherited debt position came from the Global Financial Crisis era under Labor [1]
The claim selectively presents one metric (absolute debt doubling) while omitting important context about comparative government performance, economic measurement standards, and trajectory stabilization. It's technically true but framed to suggest worse economic management than the data substantiates.
📚 SOURCES & CITATIONS (5)
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1
FactCheck: has Australia's net debt doubled under the current government?
Was shadow minister for finance Jim Chalmers correct when he said that under the current Coalition government, net debt had doubled? We asked the experts.
The Conversation -
2
Rudd overshoots on scale of coalition debt and deficit
The former prime minister exaggerated the growth in borrowing since Labor left office during an interview with a popular YouTuber.
Aap Com -
3
Australia Debt to GDP Ratio | Historical Chart & Data
Debt is the entire stock of direct government fixed-term contractual obligations to others outstanding on a particular date. It includes domestic and foreign liabilities such as currency and money deposits, securities other than shares, and loans. It is the gross amount of government liabilities reduced by the amount of equity and financial derivatives held by the government. Because debt is a stock rather than a flow, it is measured as of a given date, usually the last day of the fiscal year.
Macrotrends -
4
Public sector debt analysis 2019-20
An analysis of public sector debt statistics for the 2019-20 financial year
Australian Bureau of Statistics -
5
Australian government debt in historical and international perspective
Key issue Australian Government debt has increased to levels not experienced since the 1950s as economic support during the COVID-19 pandemic led to increased budget deficits. As interest rates in Australia and globally have started to increase in response to recent inflation
Aph Gov
Rating Scale Methodology
1-3: FALSE
Factually incorrect or malicious fabrication.
4-6: PARTIAL
Some truth but context is missing or skewed.
7-9: MOSTLY TRUE
Minor technicalities or phrasing issues.
10: ACCURATE
Perfectly verified and contextually fair.
Methodology: Ratings are determined through cross-referencing official government records, independent fact-checking organizations, and primary source documents.