The Claim
“Claimed that the majority of asylum seekers on Manus island won't be given refugee status, even though more than 90% of all asylum seekers who've come to Australia since mid 2009 were eventually found to be genuine refugees, fleeing torture, rape, genocide and persecution.”
Original Sources Provided
✅ FACTUAL VERIFICATION
Tony Abbott did make statements in March 2014 supporting PNG Prime Minister Peter O'Neill's assessment that most asylum seekers on Manus Island would not be found to be genuine refugees. During an official visit to Port Moresby on March 22, 2014, Abbott stated: "I think there's a lot that we've seen that justifies that suspicion" when asked about O'Neill's comment that a "good majority" of asylum seekers would not pass muster [1].
Regarding the 90% statistic cited in the claim: The Wikipedia article on the Pacific Solution indicates that during the first Pacific Solution period (2001-2007), approximately 68% of asylum seekers were deemed genuine refugees, with 39% receiving Australian resettlement, 24% resettled in New Zealand, and 32% deemed not genuine refugees and sent home [2]. The specific claim of "90% since mid-2009" could not be independently verified through available sources. The ASRC (Asylum Seeker Resource Centre) website, cited as a source in the original claim, does not contain specific statistics supporting the 90% figure [3].
Missing Context
The claim omits several critical contextual elements:
Abbott was agreeing with the PNG Prime Minister, not making an independent assessment: Abbott's comments were made in support of Peter O'Neill's position during a diplomatic visit, not as a unilateral Australian government announcement [1].
The processing had not yet been completed: At the time of Abbott's statement in March 2014, the refugee status determination process for Manus Island detainees was still ongoing. The first asylum seekers found to be genuine were expected to be resettled in May 2014, after PNG parliament approval [1].
The policy was established by the previous Labor government: The Manus Island detention centre was reopened in August 2012 under the Gillard Labor government, following recommendations from the Houston Report. Kevin Rudd's Labor government then announced the "PNG Solution" on July 19, 2013, declaring that "asylum seekers who come here by boat without a visa will never be settled in Australia" [4].
The prediction was speculative: Abbott explicitly stated he would "wait to see what the outcome of the PNG processing was" while agreeing with O'Neill's assessment [1].
Source Credibility Assessment
The Guardian (Original Source 1): The Guardian is a mainstream international news outlet. The article is a straightforward news report from Australian Associated Press (AAP), not an opinion piece. The reporting appears factual and includes direct quotes from Abbott and O'Neill. However, The Guardian has been described as having a center-left editorial stance, which should be considered when evaluating framing and tone [1].
ASRC (Original Source 2): The Asylum Seeker Resource Centre is an advocacy organization for refugees and asylum seekers. While they provide valuable services and information, as an advocacy group they have an inherent organizational interest in presenting asylum seekers in a positive light. Their statistics should be viewed through this lens. The specific statistics page cited does not contain the 90% figure referenced in the claim [3].
Labor Comparison
Did Labor do something similar?
Yes. The Manus Island offshore processing policy was actually established and expanded by Labor governments:
Gillard government (August 2012): Reopened the Nauru and Manus Island detention centres with bipartisan support, implementing the "Pacific Solution" after an expert panel recommended it [4].
Rudd government (July 2013): Announced the "PNG Solution" - the Regional Resettlement Arrangement where "asylum seekers who come here by boat will have no chance of being settled in Australia as refugees." This was a Labor government policy that predated the Abbott government's Operation Sovereign Borders [4].
Labor dismantled then reinstated offshore processing: The first Rudd government (2007-2010) dismantled the original Pacific Solution in 2008, calling it "a cynical, costly and ultimately unsuccessful exercise," only for later Labor governments to reinstate it when boat arrivals increased dramatically [4].
Between 2007 and 2013, boat arrivals increased from 148 people to over 25,000 annually, with approximately 862 asylum seekers dying at sea during this period [4]. This context explains why both major parties eventually supported offshore processing.
Balanced Perspective
Tony Abbott's statement in March 2014 was made in a specific diplomatic context during his first official visit to Port Moresby. He was supporting PNG Prime Minister Peter O'Neill's assessment, not making an independent Australian policy announcement. Abbott explicitly noted he would "wait to see what the outcome of the PNG processing was" [1].
The key element this claim misses is bipartisan responsibility for offshore processing. The Manus Island facility was reopened under Labor in 2012, and the "PNG Solution" was announced by Kevin Rudd's Labor government in July 2013. The policy that prevented boat arrivals from being settled in Australia was established by Labor, not the Coalition [4].
The 90% genuine refugee statistic cited in the claim is questionable. Historical data from the first Pacific Solution (2001-2007) shows approximately 68% of asylum seekers were deemed genuine refugees, with 32% found not to be genuine [2]. The specific timeframe and methodology for the "90% since mid-2009" figure is not supported by the cited sources.
Both major Australian political parties have supported offshore processing at various times, with Labor both dismantling (2008) and later reinstating (2012-2013) the policy. The policy has consistently had bipartisan support when implemented, suggesting this is not a partisan issue but rather a complex policy challenge that both parties have struggled to address [4].
Key context: This is not unique to the Coalition. Labor governments reopened Manus Island, established the PNG Solution, and maintained the offshore processing framework that the Abbott government inherited. The core policy architecture was bipartisan by 2013-2014.
PARTIALLY TRUE
5.0
out of 10
Tony Abbott did make statements supporting the assessment that most Manus Island asylum seekers would not be found to be genuine refugees. However, the claim misrepresents the context: Abbott was agreeing with the PNG Prime Minister during a diplomatic visit, not making an independent policy announcement. The 90% genuine refugee statistic is not substantiated by the cited sources and conflicts with historical data showing approximately 68% recognition rates during the first Pacific Solution period. Most significantly, the claim omits that the Manus Island policy was established and expanded by the previous Labor government, making this a bipartisan policy position rather than a Coalition-specific action.
Final Score
5.0
OUT OF 10
PARTIALLY TRUE
Tony Abbott did make statements supporting the assessment that most Manus Island asylum seekers would not be found to be genuine refugees. However, the claim misrepresents the context: Abbott was agreeing with the PNG Prime Minister during a diplomatic visit, not making an independent policy announcement. The 90% genuine refugee statistic is not substantiated by the cited sources and conflicts with historical data showing approximately 68% recognition rates during the first Pacific Solution period. Most significantly, the claim omits that the Manus Island policy was established and expanded by the previous Labor government, making this a bipartisan policy position rather than a Coalition-specific action.
📚 SOURCES & CITATIONS (3)
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1
theguardian.com
PNG and Australian prime ministers hint that most detainees will be found to be economic refugees and not fleeing persecution
the Guardian -
2
en.wikipedia.org
Wikipedia -
3
asrc.org.au
These four areas have been identified as ASRC’s priority advocacy areas for 2022-2025 following consultations with ASRC staff, area experts and most importantly refugees and people seeking asylum.
Asylum Seeker Resource Centre
Rating Scale Methodology
1-3: FALSE
Factually incorrect or malicious fabrication.
4-6: PARTIAL
Some truth but context is missing or skewed.
7-9: MOSTLY TRUE
Minor technicalities or phrasing issues.
10: ACCURATE
Perfectly verified and contextually fair.
Methodology: Ratings are determined through cross-referencing official government records, independent fact-checking organizations, and primary source documents.